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we have been setting new temp records since 2023 mid-may
what tf did you guys do on 2nd week of may 2023?
Nothing. We've done nothing for decades now.
yup, it's working so well.
did we curb rampant waste of hydrocarbons? nah. the cult of vroom vroom, you know, the chargers, the nascars, the idiots that race around in circles, they wouldn't let that happen.
Every day, they still race cars up and down the street spewing the shit.
hell, we have some folks that are so deep into the cult that they modify their vehicles to be less efficient so they can spew MORE smoke than normal, as a feature. and since we collectively decided to let the dumbest among us drive the bus, we're all going over the cliff together.
before you begin pecking out an apologist screed to point out 'it's only a tiny percentage' - one, we're past any percentage being tiny, the planet is cooking you fuckwits, and two, if we can't get the vroom-vroom cultists to drop their insanity, how are we going to convince the world to pull back on 2-strokes, cruise ships, snow-mobile and motocross and hundreds of other gas burning leisure hobbies if we can't even get the racer-heads to wake up?
we're letting the morons drive us right off the cliff.
Sorry I ate some really spicy Thai food for lunch that week
It's insane that I'm already thinking of packing away my winter coat. It just hasn't been cold enough for it for the past week. For reference, I live in the Northern part of the U.S., and can typically expect to see snow in April. This year we're back to 40s and 50s in February.
I'm seriously worried that one day soon, there won't even be a winter.
Oh don't do that, part of the devastation of climate change is more extremes and bigger swings.
If that's what you're worried about I've got some bad news about the next 10 years lol.
Im educated guessing there will be hundreds of millions of migrating climate refugees in this decade, followed by basically social unrest nearly everywhere, followed by governments becoming more authoritarian and war like, again, basically everywhere.
Don't forget global food shortage, famine and mass casualty events.
don't forget governments finally doing the right thing just when cutting off oil will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis without putting a dent in the climate.
Yep. The fundamental problem has actually always been that you cannot support the current number of living human beings at their current standard of living without petrochemical fertilizers.
Theoretically if we had globally embarked on some kind of mass agricultural campaign to entirely restructure the food production and global distribution mechanism starting maybe 30 or 20 years ago, we might have stood a chance.
But that never would have happened anyway. Too many people would have had their livelihoods ruined and/or their standard of living decreased to the point theyd revolt or politically prevent this from happening.
Oh well I guess, good luck with the next few decades everyone, its only going to get worse.
Yep, they all go together and all rapidly escalate and compound upon each other.
No you cannot predict /exactly/ what will happen.
But you can look at any analogous situation of a civilization collapse historically and combine that with a basic knowledge of modern political science and economics and a bit of psychology to understand that shit will get so bad that no government, corporation, ngo, your favorite trillionaire or political ideology will be able to stop the downward spiral.
Most of the mild weather we're seeing is due to El Niño.
Actually it's due to the anthropogenic climate change we've all been partaking in for the last 200 years.
Good try though.
Black swan event here we gooo
Except its not a black swan at all. We absolutely knew this was possible, was coming, is now here.
We were pretty sure something was coming – what I think the "black swan" will be is the speed at which things will go to shit, and the actual depth of the shit we're going to find ourselves in very shortly
It's also called "gray rhino" event. It's big, obvious, heading straight toward you but you still choose to ignore it.
Again: we know something is going to go wrong, but we don't know what'll be the first thing to shit the bed. I wrote a longer comment about this
Well even then, if you actually looked into this sort of thing, its been obvious for a while.
Historically, as studied by anthropologists, historians, sociologists, its been known for a while that civilizations collapse due to:
Massive Famines
Unexpected Broad, Rapid Climate Shifts
Massive Internal Political/Civil Unrest
Foreign Invasion
Massive Plagues
Insulated Ruling Class making absurd decisions to maintain their own power at the cost of the actual stability of their society
Collapse of Vital Trade Routes
Neglect and Failure of Vital Infrastructure
Financialization of the Economy, writ large
...
Now sometimes it can be just one of these, but usually its a few.
Most current societies/nation states are currently experiencing or will very soon be facing nearly all of these combined.
I suggest you read John Michael Greer's Catabolic Collapse book or watch some of the videos about it for an overview of the basic idea that complex societies tend to respond to crises by becoming more complex, which is the exact opposite of what you would want to do from a big picture, hindsight perspective, but is more or less unavoidable due to human psychology and socio/political/economic dynamics of human organized societies.
...
You are right that the vast majority of people will be surprised by the speed of collapse, logarithmic vs linear basically.
But the people who have been in charge of our societies either did, do, or should know or should have known about this.
Oh that's a whole 'nother thing entirely. I meant purely from an environmental perspective that my bet is that not only will the temperature increase continue to speed up much faster than expected, but that we're probably going to see some crucial ecological system go really spectacularly to shit – at a guess something related to the oceans, or could even be something like runaway warming (speedrun to Venus, yay!).
None of the events we've thought of have a very high probability of happening according to climate models, but our capability for modeling systems as complex as a whole planet's climate and all its ecosystems is… well, it's not zero, but that's about it. The likelihood of something unexpected going to shit is pretty high, and after it does happen we'll all go "oh, we should have seen this coming".
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who came up with the concept, had this to say regarding "Black Swans" (I've not been capitalizing it, oh no!):
What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme 'impact', and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives.
I've never been so depressed about being right.
1.5C was so last year. This year's Pantone Temperature is..... 2.0C!
That’s gonna pair well with my lobster red skin.
Parts of Canada were 8C above seasonal norms today (!). That is very, very much warming.
this post was submitted on 12 Feb 2024
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