43
Well not that secretly apparently
I wouldn't bother getting my hopes up too much. Their idea of "negotiations" is something between "letting Russia have Crimea" in exchange for giving up everything else that Ukraine wants, and at best "freezing the conflict" to allow Ukraine to be built up again, re-armed and possibly brought into either EU, NATO or both, with a view toward trying to recover their territories later from a more favorable military position.
Obviously these are all non-starters for Russia, not only does Russia not have any pressing need for negotiations seeing as they are winning and the balance of power in their favor is only improving, but my guess is they will never and cannot accept any situation in which Ukraine is not made permanently neutral and demilitarized, or in which the Nazi regime in Kiev is allowed to stay in power as it would constitute a perpetual security and terrorist threat.
Also there is no conceivable scenario in which the sanctions will be lifted, at best Germany would undo a couple of token ones, particularly those that help it dig itself out of the energy hole it has thrown itself into, but the rest are pretty much permanent, just like the sanctions on Cuba, Iran, the DPRK, Syria, etc. After all, it suits the US just fine for Europe to commit economic suicide, it's one less competitor.
I agree with all that, but I think what's interesting is that the shift in the narrative is happening at all. This is the most clear indication we have that the west is losing.
Even a few months ago any talk of negotiations was outside the realm of possibilities. I think there were high hopes that the offensive would make some big breakthrough and then Russia would be put in a corner. Now it's becoming clear that the opposite is happening and they're starting to panic.
I expect that what's likely to happen in the end is that western regimes are going to start collapsing as the economy continues to unravel.
Indeed, it is an indication that desperation is setting in, but they still labor under the delusion that if they can't outright win they can get some sort of draw. That's not how this works. And i know some Russian comrades are very jaded and cynical and expect that the Russian leadership will end up capitulating to a "compromise" the first chance they get, but just going by the public comments that they have been making for a while now it seems to me like the mood is uncompromising and hardened as they no longer trust that any agreements with the West are possible.
Yeah, I don't really see Russia compromising at this point either. I think the biggest aspect of all this has been the economic war, and Russia has basically won it. Western sanctions failed to significantly disrupt Russian economy and they massively backfired on the west. Now, Russian economy is growing while western economies are shrinking. Furthermore, Russia has the industrial power necessary to continue fighting while the west does not. This is precisely why Russia is fighting a war of attrition instead of doing big and costly offensives.
I think that breaking NATO and EU through economic attrition has now become a realistic goal for Russia and China. We're already starting to see political turmoil in the west, and as economic situation continues to unravel, it's only a matter of time until countries start breaking with the Atlanticist policy and trying to normalize relations with Russia. BRICS is another huge factor in all this. It's now become a bigger economic bloc than the G7, and I can see countries like Hungary and Serbia moving towards BRICS in the near future.
It's really not clear what the west can do to counter this short of a full on hot war with Russia which would have apocalyptic consequences.
Russia is in too deep not to play to win. They have to be able to end up making demands on the west in order to not be worse off.
Russia already won within a week, they got the regions they were after that will never return to Ukraine. They're just playing the waiting game now
Man, entering the lemmy thread on this is like jumping through the looking glass into a parallel universe
Yeah, it's wild to see what people who uncritically consume western propaganda believe. The funny part is that even mainstream media reports enough facts for people to understand how things are really going, but you have to look for them. Since most people want to believe that Russia is losing, they simply focus on the parts of the article that fit into the narrative they've bought into.
This article is a great example of that in action. The very fact that western position is shifting from no negotiations are possible to we're going to have to negotiate sooner or later is an admission that things are not going as planned. You don't soften your position when you're winning. Yet, this obvious fact appears to elude most people in the lemmy thread.
I think that prior conditioning plays a big role here. It's been drilled into people that US is all powerful and that Russia is a gas station with nukes. They simply cannot comprehend that Russia could have a stronger industrial base or better economic fundamentals. Accepting that Russia is winning the war means having to rethink their entire world view that they've built up over decades. That's a hard pill to swallow.
Good, stop this stupid war already
indeed
this post was submitted on 01 Sep 2023
43 points (90.6% liked)
World News
2297 readers
105 users here now
founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS