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Mark Kelly now heavy favorite to be Harris’ running mate as he blasts JD Vance on Ukraine (www.independent.co.uk)

submitted 1 month ago by JimmyBigSausage@lemm.ee to c/news@lemmy.world

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[-] kinkles@sh.itjust.works 137 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Source: a gambling website aggregator lol

Still, according to electionbettingodds.com, which averages online betting sites, Kelly has a 34.9 percent chance of being the presumptive nominee’s vice-presidential pick.

Also according to that site, Kamala Harris has 0.8% odds to be Kamala Harris’s VP, slightly edging out Gavin Newsome.

[-] cygnus@lemmy.ca 103 points 1 month ago

Also according to that site, Kamala Harris has 0.8% odds to be Kamala Harris’s VP

[-] PythagreousTitties@lemm.ee 27 points 1 month ago

I'm surprised Trump hasn't thought of that and gone solo

[-] dogsnest@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

I'm thankful he thinks lemmy is a character on King of the Southpark, or some show like that, or he might get ideas.

[-] lone_faerie@lemmy.blahaj.zone 7 points 1 month ago

You think he gets ideas?

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[-] FaceDeer@fedia.io 13 points 1 month ago

It's very hard for an established prediction market to go all the way to either 0% or 100%. There'll always be someone who bought in earlier on the losing side and isn't bothering to cash out for the handful of pennies they might be able to theoretically get back now because it there's nobody who's actually buying.

[-] bandwidthcrisis@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/twins.png

[-] BuddyTheBeefalo@lemmy.ml 28 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

They predict trump's chances to win the election to be 59.7%, harris is at 37%.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

[-] ReallyActuallyFrankenstein@lemmynsfw.com 10 points 1 month ago

That honestly sounds right for right now. Harris has momentum but Trump is still leading in polls. I think it reflects the uncertainty of whether Harris will be able to capitalize on being the only candidate that doesn't wear diapers and has a properly functioning brain.

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[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 11 points 1 month ago

slightly edging out Gavin Newsome.

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[-] girlfreddy@lemmy.ca 82 points 1 month ago

The Harris campaign is still vetting candidates and has not made its pick yet. Still, according to electionbettingodds.com, which averages online betting sites, Kelly has a 34.9 percent chance of being the presumptive nominee’s vice-presidential pick.

Jfc. Taking the odds from an aggregate of betting websites and using that as a verified source seems crazy to me.

[-] tal@lemmy.today 11 points 1 month ago

I mean, it's the closest thing you have to a futures market, and if you assume that markets are efficient, you can extract information there -- people do use those.

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[-] circuscritic@lemmy.ca 62 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Arizona is not a solidly blue state, and Mark Kelly is unusually popular for a senator.

Arizona Democrats also don't have that deep of a bench to pull out a candidate that's a lock for a statewide race.

I'm not saying it's impossible for any Democrat to win the election for Mark Kelly's seat, I am saying it's a significant risk that they probably won't want to take.

And that's before taking into account that Arizona Democrats already have a handful with the seat being left open by their current manic pixie dream senator.

[-] Zipitydew@sh.itjust.works 36 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Kelly's seat would go to a Dem replacement. They wouldn't have to run for reelection until 2026 in a special election. The seat would be safe for at least 2 years out. Arguably a gamble worth taking to make sure we still have elections come 2026.

[-] caffinatedone@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago

Assuming Harris wins, the first midterm federal election is usually ugly for the president's party, so it'd be a risk. Especially coming off of this election where dems will have to be extremely lucky just to hold onto the majority (even with the vp tiebreaker).

[-] Zipitydew@sh.itjust.works 12 points 1 month ago

If Trump wins much of that is irrelevant by 2026 anyway though.

[-] caffinatedone@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

Of course, but I don't think that him as the VP candidate changes the odds of that much relative to the other contenders who don't come with that risk.

VP candidates don't usually matter much in an election unless they're freaks with a couch fetish or something weird like that.

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[-] 58008@lemmy.world 55 points 1 month ago

A 60-year-old? Running alongside a 59-year-old?? What is this, a fuckin' crèche? Their mother's milk is still wet on their faces! How can they compete against a worldly wisdom-haemorrhaging wise man in his 80s like Trump when they're barely out of their baby diapers, while Trump is already well into his adult diapers phase?

Jesus, go back to your pogo sticks and bubblegum and stickerbooks and let a grown-up have a shot. Sheesh.

[-] PriorityMotif@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

I hope that age in politics snaps back hard in the coming years. As I get older I'm really getting sick of old people

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[-] cybervseas@lemmy.world 33 points 1 month ago

I know it's not about identity politics, but lady prez and spaceman veep? Yes please!

[-] gAlienLifeform@lemmy.world 20 points 1 month ago

Nah, we shouldn't be rewarding anyone who worked with Joe Manchin to attack the environment - https://web.archive.org/web/20240710182356/https://www.eenews.net/articles/manchin-kelly-urge-biden-to-open-new-gulf-oil-leasing/

Out of all the likely names I've seen, NC governor Roy Cooper seems like the strongest

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 11 points 1 month ago

Yeah that's not the attack on the environment you say it is. He was looking for a mid term patch on supply chain greedflation and the crimp from banning Russian oil. Long term he's all in on wind and solar. He's been very open about this. Painting him as someone like Manchin who's heavily financially invested in fossil fuels is just disingenuous.

[-] ptz@dubvee.org 9 points 1 month ago

Lady Prez and Spaceman Veep '24

I've never put out a yard sign in my life, but if Astronaut Mark Kelly is chosen, I'll happily stake that one out front.

[-] ralphio@lemmy.world 17 points 1 month ago

So in the scenario that he is the VP and they win, a democrat would be appointed to the senate, but instead of the seat being up in 2028 in a presidental general election year the seat would be up in an off election year with a democratic president (2026). I'm not sure this is wise in terms of keeping the senate.

https://www.azleg.gov/ars/16/00222.htm

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[-] leadore@lemmy.world 17 points 1 month ago

Without knowing more specific + or - details about the possible choices, I'd pick Shapiro over Kelly when you add up all the variables:

As a governor Shapiro has executive experience, which Kelly doesn't. Cooper is also a governor but is already 67.
Pennsylvania is an absolute must-win state. Arizona is also very important but is not a must-win. Gotta get PA.
Shapiro is only 51 so would still be plenty young enough in 8 years to run for POTUS.
With Shapiro you're not taking a current Senator off the field like with Kelly. Yes the Dem gov will appoint another Dem but will that person (or other Dem) be able to win again in 2 years vs. keeping Kelly in place who is highly likely to be re-elected. We really need to build up a bigger majority in the Senate over the next couple of cycles to be able to get important things done.

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 13 points 1 month ago

Well as of right now the Democrats have a solid lock on state wide elections. If they're going to do it, now is the time. A 2 year incumbent that doesn't leave the party is highly likely to get reelected.

Shapiro's also got some baggage, his Israel position for example. Kelly however will be vulnerable to a swift boat attack. However as VP that will have less impact than as a candidate. Whereas the Israel issue will cause some of the left to stay home.

It's all really complicated, I'm sure they're putting a lot of thought into it.

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[-] some_guy@lemmy.sdf.org 17 points 1 month ago

JD Vance can suck my dick

Suck my dick

JD Vance can suck my dick

All the livelong daaaaay

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[-] AmidFuror@fedia.io 16 points 1 month ago

Heavy favorite = 65% chance it will not be him.

[-] Shaft@lemmy.world 15 points 1 month ago

MARK KELLY SLAMS JD VANCE FOR SAYING THE QUIET PART LOUD

[-] slimarev92@lemmy.world 11 points 1 month ago

Why would they risk losing a critical senate seat in a purple state?

[-] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 13 points 1 month ago

Arizona has a Dem governer, who gets to pick the replacement. The seat is safely theirs no matter what.

[-] Nollij@sopuli.xyz 8 points 1 month ago

Because it might get them the Whitehouse

[-] MyOpinion@lemm.ee 8 points 1 month ago

Really need to win Arizona.

[-] laverabe@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

Why not AOC? Really need some young blood and someone who is progressive. She also meets constitutional age requirements now.

[-] Infynis@midwest.social 30 points 1 month ago

I don't think the country as a whole has made that much progress yet. She'll probably have to choose a white guy unfortunately

[-] FuglyDuck@lemmy.world 7 points 1 month ago

Yeah. It saddened and annoyed me seeing that article “can Harris rebuild Obama’s coalition?”- like. Uhm. No? What’s past is gone and can never truly rebuilt. Yes, the ship of Theseus is a new ship. And this is the Ship of Harris, anyway.

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[-] phdepressed@sh.itjust.works 9 points 1 month ago

Just like Obama needed Biden. Harris also needs a white guy to appeal to (sub)conscious biases. DNC will probably push her towards a moderate so unlikely to be someone like AOC. We'll see.

[-] FuglyDuck@lemmy.world 8 points 1 month ago

I’d love AoC for pres, and consolation prize of VP. (Don’t tell the corpo dems this but the VP job is usually a political dead end…)

The reality is you need to pick VPs defensively. Some one who makes a good presidential candidate generally doesn’t make a good VP candidate.

As much as I like AoC… I don’t mind Kelly.

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this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2024

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