Germany is staring at the end of its economic model (english.elpais.com)

submitted 1 year ago by NightOwl@lemm.ee to c/worldnews@lemmy.ml

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The change in the geopolitical order, disrupted by the invasion of Ukraine, has exposed the weaknesses of the German economic model. The German model, points out Wolfgang Münchau in one of his analyses for Eurointelligence, hinges on three ingredients: cost competitiveness, technological leadership in its industry and geopolitical stability, and ‘all of them are gone,’ he adds. On the one hand, the cut-off of Russian gas — which accounted for more than 50% of the gas consumed in Germany — has impacted the electro-intensive industry, forcing businesses like the chemical company Lanxess to restructure their business and close plants.

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[-] agressivelyPassive@feddit.de 88 points 1 year ago

Energy prices are higher than in many other countries here, but not super high - especially not for businesses.

The real problem is that Germany is an gerontocracy that got complacent. Literally every change, whatsoever, will find at least 50 people arguing against it, because it could slighty affect their bottom line or their view. The result is a country that ground to a halt.

This is true in the business world, politics, science, administration. There are just too many old people that are afraid to lose anything.

Our car manufacturers straight ignored anything electric until Tesla built a factory literally on their door steps, our politicians willfully sabotaged wind and solar power (where we were world leading, at the time!) in favor of coal, because coal workers are somehow 10x more important than anyone else, our administration is still using paper everywhere, everything takes tons of useless paperwork, just because fucking Annegret thinks computers are a fad, our immigration system is almost nonexistant, since "we're not an immigration country" despite something like 25% of the people here migrated, we don't let refugees work, despite having literally too few workers to stock shelves at Aldi for 15% above minimum wage.

As a young German, I have to say, I'm afraid this country is fucked. But not because of any grand economical failure, but because the Germans as a people are idiots - luckily we're only killing ourselves this time.

[-] Ooops@kbin.social 24 points 1 year ago

but because the Germans as a people are idiots

Which is easily explained when pensioneers (and soon to be pensioneers) have the absolute majority and give a fuck about anything but their pensions and everything staying as it was.

(For reference the 50/50 split of voters by age is quickly approaching 60...)

[-] agressivelyPassive@feddit.de 17 points 1 year ago

Yes, but even the younger ones are often vile.

There's a frightening large percentage of people who are just plain anti-social - and I don't mean that as hyperbole. They care about themselves and that's it, nothing else matters. You could see that during covid, they knew, their behavior killed, but didn't care. Even the tiny inconvenience of wearing a mask was too much to ask.

[-] QuarterSwede@lemmy.world 11 points 1 year ago

luckily we're only killing ourselves this time.

Oof.

[-] TomHardy@lemmy.ml 9 points 1 year ago

not because of any grand economical failure, but because the Germans as a people are idiots

What no material analysis does to a mf. I like how in every capitalist economy, the rise of a crisis is always explained by anything but the fact that Germany is a corrupt, bourgeois dictatorship. It's always the mindset, the attitude, the rejection of some progress by some people or politicians appear to be dumb. Dude, it's not that some politicians or people do not understand some basic things, or they didn't expect that to happen. The government is driven by politicians that are puppets of top 1%. There are no really parties who represent the majority, the only difference between them is that they have stocks in different branches at different corporations. Stuff like coal is favored is not that "somehow" they value coal workers more, it's that the coal lobby pushed its influence.

And finally we see what such an economic systems does to even successful countries, there are no safety mechanisms that prevent dismantling the industry and lowering life qualities of the majority after all.

[-] agressivelyPassive@feddit.de 4 points 1 year ago

And who believes their lies? Who votes those guys into power?

This country is still a democracy, not a dictatorship. But if the demos is stupid, villains get the kratos.

[-] TomHardy@lemmy.ml 0 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

And who believes their lies? Who votes those guys into power? This country is still a democracy, not a dictatorship.

That's the point that voting the "correct" guys who "don't lie this time" will never work, hence it's a dictatorship of capitalists. I agree that if anything, the people are too stupid to realize that in a bourgeois dictatorship such as Germany they do not have any mechanisms on the decisions made by the government. So even if they don't believe the lies, who do they vote for then? The only parties who get attention by the one's who have most media representation, means a lot of budget to promote themselves, that's the Mr. moneybags.

But if the demos is stupid, villains get the kratos.

Yes but is this really the point you made in your first comment? More like "if the demos is stupid it can't get it right". I mean that's coming from the economic system from a country such as Germany's. If you meant this before, I agree. My point was that arguments such as this

Literally every change, whatsoever, will find at least 50 people arguing against it,

Annegret thinks computers are a fad

“we’re not an immigration country”

is exactly because the corruption in a capitalist country like Germany. They will evaluate problems based on who of the richies gets how much money out of which outcome, and not because they are having some ideological "views" typical to Germans on it that is stalling the process.

Edit: I think we talk about two different types of stupidity: the first, where unpopular policies are passed in capitalist countries are explained by "the politician is too stupid or lacks knowledge therefore it was made" and the second is about the people, who stupidly believe in that, hoping the next government is not stupid. I meant the first one, it is a popular justification in Germany, that hides the fact that unpopular decisions are made because of the inherent corruption in a capitalist country.

[-] bouh@lemmy.world 5 points 1 year ago

EU is with you my friend. You're not going down alone, we're going with you. ;)

[-] library_napper 17 points 1 year ago

The narrative of this article is disgusting. There is a tradeoff between ethical energy sources and profit. This is good news.

All countries should be transitioning away from carbon energy. That means they can't use as much energy. That means they can't produce as much useless crap. That is good.

Please stop placing "the economy" over the pressing climate catastrophe. Making ethical decisions requires sacrifices.

[-] TotallynotJessica@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

I agree overall, but for Germany in particular, they have fewer opportunities for renewables than other countries. At the same time, their most plentiful source of home grown energy is coal which is worse in every way to the gas they were getting from Russia. The economy only matters in so far as it serves the people, but it unfortunately matters a lot for people's well being, especially in the context of global capitalism.

[-] library_napper 3 points 1 year ago

Germany has an enormous amount of wind energy, and there is plenty of room for expansion in the North Sea

[-] alvvayson@lemmy.world 9 points 1 year ago

Our national security experts in the UK, Netherlands, Germany and France all knew back in the 1970s that we needed energy security.

The oil crises proved that.

We all developed nuclear energy, but only France actually went through and achieved energy security.

[-] cybort1983@lemmy.world 9 points 1 year ago

Sorry, this is not correct. France is importing massive amounts of electricity power from renewable sources from Germany, because the France nuclear power plants are out of order, without cooling water or have cracks in the containment.

[-] knfrmity@lemmygrad.ml 6 points 1 year ago

France imports solar electricity from Germany during the day because Germany installed too much solar without the necessary storage capacity. This power is often sold at a negative price because it's not needed but must go somewhere. Germany imports nuclear electricity from France and coal electricity from Czechia and Poland at night because it doesn't have enough baseload capacity.

[-] knfrmity@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 1 year ago

It must be said that while the French did do well to choose nuclear, their fuel comes in large part from colonial resource extraction arrangements in Africa. Hardly secure, although much more reliable and environmentally friendly than coal or gas.

[-] alvvayson@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

Nuclear fuel is so energy dense that it doesn't really matter where it comes from. You only use a teaspoon per person per year.

That said, Uranium is a commodity and the biggest producers are Kazachstan, Canada and Australia.

France subsidizing their colonies to maintain influence is a typical French thing. They also buy sugar from their old colonies at inflated prices.

[-] agarorn@feddit.de -3 points 1 year ago

Lol. Which media do you consume that you spit out such bullshit?

[-] UnfortunateShort@lemmy.world 6 points 1 year ago

And I claim he is dead wrong. It's hard to overstate just how much money is in and goes through Germany. Despite its size (in land and people), it's one of the largest economic and scientific powers in the world. The crises left but scratches so far.

Power was already expensive before, Germany and the EU are maybe less, but not unstable and there are tons of research and patents originating in Germany.

With a few course corrections, some of which have taken place, some more being underway and some maybe still necessary, I don't see why Germany or its economy should collapse any time soon. At least that's what Münchau seems to imply might happen.

Please feel free to tell me that I'm an idiot, if a couple years from now he turns out to be right. I really doubt it tho. There are even experts who actually claim we're in relatively good shape rn and I strongly agree with them. There is quite a bit of room to improve in some areas, but hey, just witnessed two major crises and all

[-] Dead_or_Alive@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

You are wrong for many reasons. Germany has been prosperous because of its export driven economy. Your products have become uncompetitive for a number of reasons.

Your demographics are in the toilet and the Eastern European countries Germany has been using for cheap labor are not far behind you. You need cheap labor and cheap capital which will be in ever shorter supply as your population ages.
Your current source of cheap gas energy has vanished. With it a lot of your manufacturing is moving. BASF, Volkswagen, ArcelorMittal are all examples of German companies seeing the writing on the wall and moving production out of the country.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-natural-gas-prices-energy-crisis-manufacturing-work-shift-us-2022-9

The US is backing away from free trade and is becoming less willing to underwrite the global order that Germany depends upon. The only trade agreements the U.S. has made are for NAFTA.
The U.S. is decoupling from the global order it built after WW2 and reshoring its industrial plant in N.A. Germany doesn’t have the military to ensure freedom of navigation for its trade goods.
Germanys trading partners are in just as bad of shape and/or becoming competitive. The Economy’s across the Eurozone look just as bad. China itself is going through a major downturn and in many areas are competing directly with Europeans in their own market (EVs).

To be clear I’m not saying this is the end of Germany. But there are some major structural challenges that cannot be simply papered over.

[-] UnfortunateShort@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

You have fair points, but I disagree with some conclusions. Demographic change for example hits everyone at some point. Concluding that it will lead to a competitive disadvantage specifically for Germany doesn't seem plausible to me, at least not in the long run. In the near future it might be, the question is how well we'll adapt. Japan for example is struggling with demographics as well and they still do OK, albeit not amazing.

Moreover capital doesn't necessarily decline becaue of a demography shift. State funding and buying power in Germany might, but the state is trying to reduce its debt, which opens up opportunities for future investments. Fewer people also mean that (hopefully) fewer investments into certain things are necessary. And as you mentioned, businesses are exporting and expanding into other countries. This means they extract capital there which could be directed towards Germany. You "just" need to capture it by making investments atteactive. I think the R&D area is a possible lifeline here. That said, private capital is a completely different story to begin with anyway. It can be used for investments that drive dividends toward Germany. There is no need for that capital to decline at all. It could of course, but I don't think demographic change will be at fault if it does. Capital tends to attract more capital.

Finally I highly question the need for military power in order to conduct global trade. The US aren't an economic superpower because their ships are escorted by destroyers, because pirates are afraid of retaliation or because, in contrast to other countries, they aren't robbed of their goods. It might have opened some doors and it makes it hard to blockade them, but that's assuming people want to blockade you to begin with. And Germany doesn't stand alone. With a strong EU and growing military spending, I'm actually hoping for more independence in every regard, including military, in the future. The cold war is over and the Soviet Union is no more. It's time to take care of ourselves in Europe and make our own decisions.

[-] knfrmity@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 1 year ago

Sucks to be a US vassal.

[-] TomHardy@lemmy.ml 8 points 1 year ago

I think at this point it is less embarrassing to admit that they were ordered by the imperial core to f. up their economy than to keep claiming it was their own decision

[-] knfrmity@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 1 year ago

Let's be real here, the Federal Republc of Germany has done nothing of importance since 1945 without at least consent, if not by the instruction, of the US empire. The post war industrialization was funded with US capital for the benefit of the US capitalist class, and now the deindustrialization is for the benefit (at least they perceive it this way) of the US capitalist class.

I think it would be more than embarrassing, it would be destabilizing to admit that the Federal Republic is ultimately little more than a US vassal.

[-] TomHardy@lemmy.ml 6 points 1 year ago

Saying it like that, maybe lmao... But did they ever really denied it? When Snowden revealed Merkel was spied on by the US, who gave a fuck? Here they could at least try and say "we had no choice, the burger empire, being the economic rival and an LNG supplier that it is, convinced us to tank our gas imports. We never saw this coming and trusted them."

[-] knfrmity@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 1 year ago

The leadership absolutely saw this coming, not only that but they have aided the whole process. Current cabinet members such as Baerbock and Habek were trained by US institutions to serve those institutions and the US capitalist class.

[-] Nerorero@lemmy.blahaj.zone 4 points 1 year ago

Germany has exported its production into other countries for profit. We are depending on others for our "german quality" Our capitalism is to unregulated

[-] Tankiedesantski@hexbear.net 3 points 1 year ago

It's almost as if cutting yourself off from your biggest energy supplier while needlessly antagonizing one of your biggest customers at the same time has bad consequences.

Too bad you can't eat smug moral superiority or heat your home with European Values.

[-] No_Money_Just_Change@lemmy.ml 3 points 1 year ago

I can't for the love of me, understand how people think:

"would you still try to stop a madman aiming to conquer half your continient with an army of rappists and warcriminals if there is a small chance you will be cold?"

is a valid argument

[-] Tankiedesantski@hexbear.net 5 points 1 year ago

Oh come now.

Biden isn't trying to conquer half of Europe. He clearly wants all of it.

[-] zephyreks@hexbear.net 2 points 1 year ago

Has Russia made any indication they want to touch NATO?

[-] No_Money_Just_Change@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 year ago

They have said they will move their borders in polish territory if their security demands it.

This then off course depends on what russia defines as a security risk.

[-] zephyreks@hexbear.net 0 points 1 year ago

[source]

[-] No_Money_Just_Change@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 year ago

www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/2/24/moscow-must-push-borders-back-as-far-as-possible-says-medvedev

[-] zephyreks@hexbear.net 0 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

“That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. To push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if [this is to] are the borders of Poland,” said Medvedev.

English translation isn't doing him any favours. He's saying he wants to push to the Polish border, not across it.