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Cool! Key takeaway for me from this is Trump didn't get more popular, Dems just got way less popular. Kind of brings a bit of my hope in humanity back a little
The fact that anyone voted for Trump killed my hope in humanity
In 2016.
Even more so in 2024, since we now saw exactly how he would be. He's added 37 felony counts, the whole classified documents debacle, and more to his resume.
Let's not forget the deaths of over a million Americans due to a wholly inadequate pandemic response. But I stand by what I said, I already lost faith in 2016. It was apparent who he is back then and I am beyond disappointed in my fellow Americans.
Still kinda sucks that the Dems lost popularity. I wonder if it would have been different if Biden was on ticket.
It isn't hard for me to believe that 1 in 8 people would refuse to vote for someone because their gender or color.
On a side note, I'm getting older and losing touch with new music, but are women's punk rock bands not as popular as I once remember them being or what? The world could use a little more fuck the patriarchy.
Ugh that’s depressing but I think you’re right.
It doesn't help anything but if you consider that our population grew by 6 million during that time and 22% (kids) can't vote. Then say that only 46% of the population votes... Trump should have had right over 2 million more votes this election, aka he lost votes when accounting for population growth.
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I think it would've been significantly worse had he been still running
Not only every single polling data indicates otherwise, but lots of analysis are also identifying Harris' interview on the View, where she stated that "nothing comes to mind" when they asked her what would she have done differently from Biden as one her campaigns biggest blunders.
Their focus on everything but the economy during the campaign killed them. If they'd announced a major economic stimulus campaign to get folks back to where they were before the pandemic they'd have won. That gaffe on The View pegged Kamala as completely out of touch with what's going on for working class people who are struggling (and have been struggling for quite some fime.)
From what I could tell the campaign platform was "We're not trump, and btw we support women and we ❤️ PoC/LGBTQ+" (which is essentially the same campaign Hillary ran and lost with.)
They didn't brag about how many jobs they created with the infrastructure spending acts and didn't announce any further plans to keep that going. If they did then they certainly failed to fill the air with it. There was no message of change and hope which, let's be honest, after 35+y of leaving the bottom 80% out of the Wall St economy a huge number of people were waiting to hear.
I wonder if it would have been different if Biden was on ticket.
It would have been way, way worse.
Honestly there's almost no way a sitting president gains popularity but considering his stance on Israel and stuff he sure as hell would lose some. I honestly don't think it would have been better.
Maybe being more policy specific would have helped Kamala. But the Democrats just have so much PR damage they haven't addressed over time, they are not doing themselves any favors. Humility can be an incredible thing but if you're a politician being humble is the hardest thing to fake, so if you're not, you're not gonna try if you're smart enough.
As a leftist (not in the US though) we just gotta take the L and that's that. I'll be waiting for the drop in support for Republicans after the fact and the following damage report from Rumpsteak's presidency. Let's just hope we get a competent cleaning crew to deal with the damage.
Also reminder that I'm on the hindsight 20/20 high horse so it's very easy to criticize, but I genuinely thought Kamala had a chance and it was a good idea so it's not like I make a good oracle lol.
I'm always confused by the need for the Democrats to be more policy specific, when they're the only party that actually shares any policy.
I feel like people aren't saying they're unsure of the specifics of Kamala's policy points, so they're going to instead vote for the guy who rambles incoherently for an hour about evil Mexicans.
I think this shows a lot of potential Kamala voters chose not to vote, instead of going to the orange Julius. Democrats have to be more specific with policy because leftists demand it. The right (Trumps base) doesn't care.
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Dems unmistakeably snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but it beggars belief that all the indictments and treason didn't undermine Trump's popularity any. The right-wing media machine must be one of the most effective brainwashing apparatuses ever to exist.
He raised a ton of money immediately following the convictions, which he then use to buy world series ads. The convictions without sentencing helped him. That judge knew exactly what she was doing when she delayed sentencing. Welp, it's after the election, so is she going to sentence him? Didn't think so.
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Although I've been pointing at these numbers as well, it's worth noting that the effects of the electoral college is still important.
Dem votes were up in PA and GA from 2020. Maybe other swing states as well, haven't looked. Trump's just went up more.
Either way, I think all of the brilliant minds who decided to withhold their votes for Kamala for whatever reason maybe weren't being very pragmatic given the reality of the binary outcome set.
We must be truly desperate to look to the electoral college for help.
People need motivation to vote. A selective tax credit or "other guy bad" simply isn't enough. You can complain all you want about how stupid people are for not voting against fascism, but if you cannot face the reality of voters and how to get them to vote then how much smarter can you really call yourself over others? This is a lesson that apparently needs to be learned every election yet never seems to be learned.
One of my team members is based in the US, and he told me after the election: "The media told us all about how bad Trump was. But nobody ever told us how good Kamala was." I guess voting only for the lesser evil has its limits.
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Does anyone have the % change by state?
Not that I expect to see anything weird, but 12.4% stands out to me.
So Trumps base is just his base. It’s the 100million plus over 18 and probably eligible to vote (extrapolated from 2020 census numbers, with 77.9% over 18) folks sitting this one out or voting 3rd party.
What were the 2016 numbers? I bet his base is right there near 74mil again.
Hillary 65,853,514
Trump 62,984,828
Dang I can't believe Hillary lost with 3 million more votes. That's insane considering Harris could have won ALL the swing states other than Florida for around a million votes.
Soooo I thought they were still counting some states? Not enough to change the outcome, but perhaps enough to change assessments about voter engagement.
Yes and no. California isn't done, along with a few others. The numbers will continue to go up for both of them, and Harris will close the gap, but all in all it won't change things too much.
I'm reporting this. Not beautiful. Very painful. Make me cry.
For fucks sake, THE VOTES ARE NOT ALL COUNTED YET. It is too early to be making graphs like this, its just misleading.
As of right now, California is reporting about 72% of the expected total, at about 12 million votes. If the ratio is maintained, we can expect about 2.8 million more votes for Harris from California alone. And Trump can expect another 1.8 million from California.
There are a couple hundred thousand votes to count in each of Oregon, Maryland, and DC.
I mean most states have less than 1% of votes left to count. What change are you expecting from this graph?
Millions more votes from California, Harris and Trump will both get 40% more votes than they have now by the time counting is complete. That's 2.9 million for Harris and 1.9 for Trump. Completely changes the graph. Harris lost something like 5-10% of Biden electorate and Trump gained a few percent of his. Still bad for Harris but doesn't support the narrative this chart wants to be true.
Cool but pop vote means nothing in presidential election. The missing Dems were all from states that don't matter thanks to the electoral college. Harris did nearly as well, or even better than 2020 Biden in the key swing states, and of the ones she didn't do better than 2020 Biden she could have done just as well and still been beaten by 2024 Trump, who got more votes in those swing states.
What are you talking about? She lost
Georgia
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
I'm what world is that doing better? She lost the popular vote and the electorial vote. She did not do better than Biden.
Since this entire original post is about the overall popular vote, when I said "did better" I meant in regard to number of votes in those states. But Trump did even better. My point is that the "missing Dem votes" illustrated from the OP were almost all from states other than the key swing states, and didn't ultimately matter due to the electoral college. In the key swing states, Harris got nearly as many or in some cases even more than Biden in 2020. Trump just got even more.
Michigan is the sole swing state in which Harris would have defeated Trump if she had gotten Biden's turnout in 2020. In all other key swing states, even with Biden's 2020 turnout, Harris would have lost to Trump's 2024 turnout. She still would have lost the electoral college.
Wisconsin
Biden 2020: 1.63 million
Harris 2024: 1.667 million
Trump 2024: 1.697 million
Michigan
Biden 2020: 2.804 million
Harris 2024: 2.72 million
Trump 2024: 2.802 million
Georgia
Biden 2020: 2.473 million
Harris 2024: 2.543 million
Trump 2024: 2.66 million
Pennsylvania
Biden 2020: 3.459 million
Harris 2024: 3.352 million
Trump 2024: 3.491 million
Thanks for the break-down.
Tbf, theyre still counting some ballots, although minimal
How did 10 million fewer Democrat voters, only +500k to Republicans, but have basically the same high voter turnout?
where did you get that we have the same turnout both times?
Honour and Cultivation said so
It's looking like a slightly lower turnout, but also there's 5+ million votes still to count. So Trump will gain votes even though turnout is down. Pretty bad times, never been more disappointed in the electorate.
Here's a chart I made of the differences:
2012 2016 2020 2024
Republican 60.9M ──────▶ 63.0M ──────▶ 74.2M ──────▶ 74.1M Democrat 65.9M ──────▶ 65.9M ──────▶ 81.2M ──────▶ 70.3M Libertarian 1.3M ──────▶ 4.5M ──────▶ 1.9M ──────▶ 0.6M Green 0.5M ──────▶ 1.5M ──────▶ 0.4M ──────▶ 0.7M (Votes in the millions)
- Interesting Libertarian went way up the first time trump ran then back down the second time and even further the third. Does that mean they switched to trump or didn't run? What makes a libertarian dislike trump the first time but prefer him the first and second?
- Green also went up the first and third time trump ran. One might assume they voted biden the second but maybe harris or not vote the third?
- Democrats went up the second time trump ran but it seems lost 10 mil the third time
- Appears around 12 mil voters are unaccounted for or didn't vote
Your chart needs formatting.
Damn, Trump's cult secretly genocided 10 million liberals in 4 years!
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this post was submitted on 11 Nov 2024
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