Exit polls for the Irish election suggest a three way tie between Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, the three biggest parties, all at around 20%. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been in a coalition for the past five years because they're basically identical even though they pretend to hate each other, and will likely form a other government. Greens or Labour will have to make up the rest of the government to get them up to 50% of seats.

FF and FG are the neoliberal parties that have been actively robbing Ireland for the past 100 years. They're extremely and openly corrupt. And they're gonna win again, because no one in this country wants change or cares about other people. Fucking hell I hate it here. Nobody actually gives a shit about anything getting better, they just want more money for themselves.

Couple of videos I trust

Syrian Arab Army heavy reinforcements entering the city of Hama

Rocket artillery working on the positions of HTS

We're in for a long conflict in my opinion.

The situation in Syria is really bad. Suriyakmaps, a very reliable war mapper that relies only on geolocated evidence, has called the collapse of Syrian Army positions in the west of Aleppo. Videos and photographs are emerging of HTS fighters in the governors mansion and police headquarters in Aleppo, further inside the city, falling back or dispersing into the city afterwards. A third front has been opened in Idlib, where Russian aviation allegedly cannot operate freely due to the presence of Surface to Air Missiles, though this is not confirmed. It's looking bleak, Aleppo could fall to HTS within the next few days. If they take the Citadel of Aleppo to the northeast, it's over.

Suriyakmaps latest update

Xcancel mirror

Nitter mirror

New videos have emerged of HTS fighters on the outskirts of the Citadel, if not at the Citadel itself. Covert insurgents behind the front lines that have blended into the city. Rooting these HTS insurgents out with counterinsurgency operations is going to be very difficult. That is, if there's even time for counterinsurgency operations before the entire city falls.

maybe claudia got that lula skills:

Pls practice discipline in what/how you share information. Verify. Provide sources. Do not take rando telegram channels as gospel.

Some more updates from Syria. Syrian and Russian airstrikes continue pounding the terrorists, while a growing number of countries are issuing statements of support for Syria.

Syrian President Bashar Assad vowed that the terrorists will be defeated. Syrian forces and Iranian volunteers are presently regrouping near the important city of Hama: https://www.rt.com/news/608469-assad-defeat-terrorists-syria/

President of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, stated that his country supports Syria’s struggle against terrorism and protection of its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and stability: https://tass.com/world/1880237

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani stated that, “Syria's security and stability are closely linked to Iraq's national security”: https://english.news.cn/20241201/ffe1101e8393408abb216167e8d2ed45/c.html

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the terrorist attacks are part of a US-Israeli attempt to spread insecurity in West Asia: https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/11/30/738228/Iran-Russia-Syria-Foreign-Minister-Abbas-Araghchi-Sergei-Lavrov-resurgence-Takfiri-terrorism-American-Israeli-project-West-Asia-Astana-peace-

This seems like it's going to be an incredibly difficult winter. All the news has been bad recently and it looks like it's only going to get worse.

How is everyone feeling about the short term future? Because it seems like bad things are coming everywhere

bibi posts about syria

turkey gets f35

ceasefire in lebanon

mysteriously completely unaffiliated groups start attacking in syria

Context from 2018: Syria's Idlib spared attack, Turkey to send in more troops

Turkey will send more troops into Syria’s Idlib province after striking a deal with Russia that has averted a government offensive and delighted rebels who said it kept the area out of President Bashar al-Assad’s hands.

Putin got fucked over again by a NATO-backed "peace deal"

Apparently, there's a Syrian-Russian response to the rebel updates that have come

“The joint Syrian–Russian air force began to intensify its operations as the overlapping picture of the field became clearer, and the sites that the terrorists entered since dawn yesterday were monitored,” the correspondent added.

According to the Russia Reconciliation Center, at least 400 militants and fighters belonging to other groups have been killed.

The Syrian air force continued to strike HTS positions in the Idlib and Aleppo countryside on 29 November.

Meanwhile, extremist opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) say they have seized the entire western Aleppo countryside despite several towns being recaptured by government forces. Damascus's troops have also sustained heavy losses.

HTS-led factions announced early on 29 November that they took the towns of Miznaz, Kafr Dael, Al-Barqoum, Babis, Bashqatin, Bashantra, Al-Kasebiyeh, and Al-Arbikh. They said later that morning that they had taken over several other towns.

The extremist factions claimed on Friday afternoon to be two kilometers away from the center of Aleppo city after battles with government troops in the New Aleppo neighborhood.

Extremist fighters were also said to be close to the M5 highway, controlled in part by Syrian and Russian troops.

“Our units have not finished completing the operations of removing mines and securing them from war remnants, and until this task is completed, the western Aleppo countryside will remain a closed military zone. After completing these operations, the region will secure the return of tens of thousands of families to their homes from which they have been displaced for four years, God willing,” said Hassan Abdel Ghany, the spokesman of a recently established HTS-led operations room.

Confirmation from the Russian MoD, Russian Air Force linked telegram channels, video and photo evidence, and from Ukraine, that last night's ballistic missile attack on the Kursk region within Russia's internationally recognised borders, was in fact an ATACMS attack. The United States and Ukraine have once again attacked Russia with US made and targeted ATACMS missiles.

Russian sources say 8 ATACMS missiles were fired, and either all, or 7/8 missiles were intercepted. Video footage of an ATACMS strike with a cluster munitions warhead shows otherwise, with 4-5 seperate cluster munitions strikes visible. In the video, we can see an air defence site's location (as visible by the trail left by surface to air missiles) take a hit from a bunch of cluster munitions.

There is photographic evidence of a destroyed 92N6E, NATO name: "Grave Stone", fire control radar vehicle from the S-400 air defence system. It is unknown if this vehicle was destroyed in last night's attack, or the previous attack on the 23rd of November, with claims of both. The pro Russian claims about this being an old photo from Crimea, or confusing it for a tracked radar vehicle, or claiming it's an 30N6E “Flap Lid” radar vehicle from the S-300 system, are false. The 92N6E is a wheeled vehicle, the photos from Crimea do not match (the antenna was still standing, and not destroyed), and the 30N6E vehicle has a different driver's cabin and headlight structure that does not match the photos, which do match the 92N6E. So an S-400 system has taken a hit.

photos

Destroyed 92N6E

Intact 92N6E

Ukraine also has claimed to destroy two launchers, there are no photos of that, though it is plausible with cluster munitions. If the 92N6E was operating in combat, it's likely that there will be casualties from such an attack. Ukrainian sources claimed to have killed 5 Russian troops, with no words on injuries. I don't think I have to explain how an attack with direct US involvement killing Russian service members within Russia itself could be a large escalation. It seems that, at least for now, Russia is attempting to de-escalate by claiming that it's air defence intercepted most to all of the missiles, even with evidence to the contrary.

Khan Sheikhoun has fallen, we're officially in the Afghanistan stage now. This is total collapse. Rebels are two empty villages from entering Hama

BIG escalaTION in the Georgian elections situation.

The EU parliament passed a resolution to:

A re-run under international supervision

A transparent investigation into violations

International refusal to recognize results

In response the government has decided to close down the matter of opening negotiations with the EU until 2028 and they're also refusing budget grants from the EU until 2028

People are protesting at the parliament, folow Sopo Japaridze for more updates.

Incredibly funny that the EU is going to "lose" georgia because of its own intransigence

Moroccan here. Just want to add that the first years of Mohammed 6 were marked by great optimism, naming him "the king of the poor". This optimism was later on shattered, and a new form of oppression took place. While Hassan 2 was a dictator who sent people who opposed him to a secret prison, and people just vanishing like for publicly saying the wrong things like Mehdi Ben Barka, the opposition was fierce. There was a notable coup attempt in 1972. The reign of Mohammed 6 presents a friendly face but is marked by a shift to business, the king owns many major businesses in the country, making competition nearly impossible. The king gets to extract all the riches while pretending to be this meek gentle king, and the prime ministers are changed at will and they get to be the focus of all the discontent people have. Speaking against the king is still a political taboo that you never hear publicly.

🛑|🇸🇾 Syria’s SANA agency: Individuals linked to terrorist groups who were responsible for filming fake scenes in several neighborhoods of Aleppo to give the impression that terrorist groups had taken control of those areas were apprehended.

from https://xcancel.com/AryJeay/status/1862623124056945040

#Al-Shahba canton is witnessing massacres against Kurdish civilians forcibly displaced from Afrin by Syrian terrorists affiliated with the Turkish occupation, random killings, and cutting off communications and the internet. No voice reaches the world about the tragedies of children and innocents. 7 civilians were killed on flimsy charges. Humanity is crying out for help!

::: spoiler To add to the pile of takes being posted about this ceasefire, here is a quick writeup Derek Davidson from Foreign Exchanges/probably the most frequent Chapo guest sent out tonight. I am just posting this because it gets delivered to my inbox:

While I am technically on vacation I did want to send a brief update on the ceasefire that Joe Biden announced earlier today between Israel and Hezbollah. Momentum had been building toward this for several days now, despite outward appearances as the Israelis maintained and arguably intensified their bombing campaign. Indeed, they continued bombarding Lebanon throughout the day on Tuesday, while Hezbollah kept up its rocket attacks on Israel, everybody getting in a few last licks before the ceasefire goes into effect at 4 AM Wednesday local time. If all goes well this will mark the end of a conflict that started shortly after Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack in southern Israel, when Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel. That conflict has killed nearly 3800 people in Lebanon and nearly 130 in Israel, while displacing upwards of 1.2 million in Lebanon and some 46,000 in Israel.

The deal in its most basic form opens a 60 day window, during which Hezbollah and Israel will attempt to implement the terms of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon War. That means Hezbollah will withdraw its military forces, or at least its large weapons that are capable of striking Israel, north of the Litani River or about 30-ish (give or take) kilometers from the Israeli border. The Israelis in turn will withdraw from southern Lebanon. If those two conditions are met then the 60 day window will turn into a full-fledged ceasefire—at least until the next time Israel and Hezbollah go to war. Israel’s security cabinet approved the deal on Tuesday prior to Biden’s announcement. The Lebanese government had already signaled its approval, which came along with Hezbollah’s indirect approval.

There are mechanisms in the deal that aim to ensure Hezbollah’s compliance. The most immediate of those involves the Lebanese military, such as it is. As the Israeli military (IDF) and Hezbollah withdraw, Lebanese forces will deploy to the area between the Litani and the Israeli border where they will function in concert with the United Nations peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) to police the ceasefire. This is where the United States and France enter the picture. They’re apparently committed to supporting the Lebanese military and improving its capabilities so that it’s able to fulfill this mission, as well as to unspecified measures to improve the wrecked Lebanese economy.

The US and French governments will also join the Israeli and Lebanese governments, and UNIFIL, in overseeing the deal. This is a significant development considering that as recently as Sunday the Israeli government was refusing to have anything to do with Paris because Emmanuel Macron had recognized the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Lebanese government had conversely insisted on French participation, presumably reasoning that the French government might actually try to constrain future Israeli military action where the United States is barely even a rubber stamp anymore on that front. That’s important because the main thing the overseers will be doing is determining whether/when the Israelis are entitled to resume their military campaign in Lebanon.

By all accounts, Israeli officials wanted it written into the deal that they retain the right to use Lebanon as a free-fire zone if they decide that Hezbollah isn’t meeting its obligations. That is not, as far as I know, explicitly written into the agreement Biden announced on Tuesday, surely because it was unacceptable to Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. But the Israelis reportedly have assurances from Washington that the US will support their reentry into Lebanon should it come to that.

Based on what’s been reported so far I think we have to conclude that the Israelis have gotten much of what they wanted out of this conflict. In the main they got Hezbollah to break its “Axis of Resistance” ties to Hamas and agree to a ceasefire that has nothing to do with Gaza. That’s meaningful both in the near term, as it means in theory that the Israeli government can begin moving displaced people back into northern Israel without having to interrupt its genocidal campaign, and in the long term, if it permanently fractures the relationship between those two groups. Then there’s the damage Hezbollah has taken. Over the course of the past 13 months the Israelis were able to exploit apparently gaping holes in the internal security of Hezbollah or one of its allies to kill several of its senior leaders, including former Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, along with a larger number of mid-level officials. Those losses will take time to overcome.

That said, the Israelis haven’t gotten everything. For all the hits it’s taken Hezbollah is still standing and still seemed to be putting up a fairly robust resistance to IDF incursions in southern Lebanon—robust enough that it may have made Israeli leaders more amenable to a ceasefire. It’s also still a major force in Lebanese politics, and if we take its civilian elements into account the damage it’s suffered over the past 13 months is still significant but not debilitating. As I noted earlier the Israelis didn’t get the explicit permission they wanted to continue operating in Lebanon with impunity, though that’s more a technical setback than a real one.

This deal is hours old and as I write this it only came into effect about 30 minutes ago so I think to say much more would be to delve fully into speculation, and to be completely frank I think I’d rather go back to being on vacation. One bit of speculation that I will offer is the possibility that this deal isn’t so much going to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah as shift the locus of that fighting into Syria. The IDF has never been reluctant to attack Hezbollah targets in Syria but it’s ratcheted up the frequency and intensity of such attacks in recent weeks, and it may be worth noting that after Biden’s announcement it bombed three crossings along the Lebanese-Syrian border in northern Lebanon. We’ve also seen reports of late about IDF construction projects in the occupied Golan that may be encroaching deeper into Syrian territory.

Bashar al-Assad’s government has been scrupulous about staying out of this conflict and maybe he’s got some sort of private understanding with the Israelis, but I still think this is something to watch. I’m not saying that the Israelis will immediately shift their operations to Syria in anything like the intensity we’ve seen in Lebanon, but over time they may continue to ramp things up on that front.

Very suspicious timing with events in Syria today

Protest arrests after seven detained over links to Kurdish rebel group PKK

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1lg37mrgd1o

Looks like Assad's lost Aleppo. Video of HTS forces in the city center seems pretty legit to me.

A counter offensive will happen but Aleppo is going to be fucked and it will take a long ass time to get them out.

It sounds like Hezbollah had a military victory but strategic loss. Is this correct? I haven’t been keeping up with the ceasefire news.

According to Iraq’s Al-Nujaba TV, quoting a senior security official in Damascus, CONFIRMED the death of Abu Muhammad Jolani.

lmaoo, HTS leader scum already got eviscerated by a Russian airstrike

Updates on the failed coup in Brazil: It was recently revealed, via leaked audios from the Federal Police (Brazil's FBI, Lula purged the entire organization day one and they are now his bodyguards instead of the Army's GSI), that a rogue Federal Police agent was investigating Lula da Silva in 2022 in an attempt to poison him during a hospital visit. It's not known what he meant by Lula's constant visits to hospital, because, due to the fact that Lula didn't go to the hospital once in 2022, his plan to poison Lula failed. Perhaps this is a projection because Bolsonaro goes to hospital every week?

In addition, it was revealed that there were plans for a coup within the coup. Braga Neto, Bolsonaro's vice-presidential running mate in 2022, and the coup's main conspirator, had documents planning to remove and probably kill Bolsonaro after a successful coup against Lula and the Supreme Court. Bolsonaro was considered useless to the military after the coup. It's not known if this is related to the fact that he went to the US for a while. Perhaps they planned to exile him there, but Bolsonaro had plans to return to Brazil, since he left all his clothes and other things in the Presidential Palace (the first lady, Lula's wife, threw all this shit away along with strange things like oxygen tanks, probably due to the fact that Bolsonaro was always extremely ill or something related to Covid-19, remembering that oxygen tanks were needed in the north of Brazil and Bolsoanro said he had none).

This whole coup within the coup didn't seem to be known to Bolsonaro, because he got very angry when it was revealed (like two days ago) and called Braga Neto, who made a strange post on Twitter saying that the coup within the coup is fake, but he didn't say that the coup was fake. It seems that, like most right-wing civilian idiots, the military planned to get rid of Bolsonaro and his family. Not even they could stand Bolsonaro.

Maarat Al Numan has fallen, the road to the Hama-Homs urban area is fully open if the rebels reach Khan Sheikhoun. My brain can't comprehend this, we're 2-3 days away from an Afghanistan level collapse. It's just unreal, how the hell is this even happening.

First ukrainian presidential polling since the start of 2022

https://www.intellinews.com/zaluzhnyi-leads-ukrainian-presidential-poll-355220/

Zaluzhnyi garnered 27% of support when respondents were asked whom they would vote for if an election were held next Sunday (November 24). Current President Volodymyr Zelenskiy followed with 16%, while former President Petro Poroshenko secured 7%. Other notable figures included Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, with 6%, and ex-Speaker of Parliament Dmytro Razumkov with 4%.

Some news from the West Asia front.

Allied Syrian/Russian forces eliminated over 400 of Washington’s al-Queda proxies since yesterday when the Western-backed terrorists launched large-scale attacks in the western Aleppo countryside: https://tass.com/defense/1879505

The Syrian military already liberated at least three settlements: Jubas and Kafr Battikh (south of Saraqib) and Az-Zarba (regaining control of the M5 highway): https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/11/28/885958.html

The Zionists violated the ceasefire and attacked a Lebanese position in Saida district: https://thecradle.co/articles/israel-violates-lebanon-ceasefire-with-airstrike-in-saida-district

Sussy shit happening in Namibia. US wants to replace SWAPO with a more pro-West one. Not that SWAPO is a based communist party anymore but still.

The opposition is running on anti-corruption alone which in the absence of anything else is just a way for the right to capture power.

A major counter offensive by the Syrian army is underway currently under cover of night. I won't post videos because they're boring (most black night time videos with gunfire sounds) but they're seriously going at it right now. Khan al-Assal and Mansoura are apparently the main places of fighting.

you gotta pay the seignorage fees to not get bonked, says local viceroy

Spanish police on Thursday said they had broken up a criminal network that used Ukrainian-made drones to fly hashish from Morocco to Spain, arresting 10 people.

The suspects based in southern Spain flew the drugs across the narrow Strait of Gibraltar separating Morocco from the Iberian Peninsula "using uncrewed aircraft", police said in a statement.

The devices were capable of transporting up to 10 kilograms (22 pounds) of drugs per trip with an autonomy of more than 50 kilometres (31 miles).

They were made by small-scale manufacturers in Ukraine and "transferred by road" to southern Spain, where they released the drugs and returned to Morocco without needing to land, they added.

Drone production has soared in the eastern European country in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion.

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2024/11/28/pictured-narco-drones-used-by-ex-military-gang-to-fly-drugs-from-morocco-to-southern-spain/

even got morocco in it

Footage has emerged of civilians evacuating New Aleppo, in the western part of Aleppo city, as HTS fighters are set to advance into this area...

It's not going well for the Syrian army at the moment.

Image is of the King of Morocco meeting with John Kerry (a species of demon that plagued Hexbear in the misty past).

Fucking hell, this was all an elaborated Kerrypost

So, aside from general , we learned that PA, jordan and egypt has absolute iron grip on their population. Evidently, then, limited armed struggle didn't work with just two sides. Legal avenue seems useless as expected, unless euros get tripped by icj ruling.

I guess in the west we only have individual bds and union-side divestment to work for, with a side of pal action (i didn't know keysight was involved). Probably need to look at what caused apartheid south africa hastened collapse in support as well

In case anyone need clarification re: who the “rebels” are fighting for

EDIT: this could be the flag for the Syrian Baathist party, they have the same color scheme

https://t.me/PalestineResistX/187

The feminist studies department at UCSC has voted to disband itself

Biden only has two months left suddenly hes locked in imperialist bullshit activated ISIS back gave ukraine 300000000 missiles.

nazis bombing beirut again

(is anyone else xcancel broke, or is it some vpn thingy?)