204
1 in 4 is a damn lie
(ttrpg.network)
Don’t judge me… I’ll pick it every time goddamnit!!!
I'll have $4 left in the shop, and it'll be arcana Vs celestial boosters
I'll pick the arcana just because it might have the wheel that might give me a result
3 in 22 chance,followed by 1 in 4 chance,which is msot likely to give 50 extra chips.
vs 3 in 9 chance of a chips + mult boost.
...
Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not implying I'm a clever man or anything
90% of gamblers quit right before getting plychrome
Once it worked 4 times in a row for me. So now I never expect it to work ever again.
"IM DUEEEEEEE" I scream as I watch "Nope!" flash up on my screen for the 6th time in a row
Six times in a row is a little less than 18%, so not totally unrealistic
16.666...%. I'll never forget that one.
That'd be 1/6, a value that is close to but not quite (3/4)^6
It worked the first time I did it and I've been chasing my losses since then.
One day It'll work and 5 seconds later I'll die.
Username checks out
Cavendish goes extinct more than The Wheel works...
1 in 5 on lucky cards is a damn lie too. I had it on like nine cards in my deck, played them at least three dozen times over the course of four antes after I started counting, not once did the +20 proc. .03% chance. .03%. Call me a walking debacle, god only knows why I play games of chance.
It because it's random and not pseudo random. Video games sometimes switch to pseudo random because otherwise things like this happens. Dota 2 had a character with an automatic counter attack which had a 30% (can't really remember) chance to proc. They had to change it to pseudo random because there were lucky/unlucky people getting 0 counters or 100% counters
This is also true because truly random number generation on computers doesn't really exist. https://youtu.be/tP-Ipsat90c. Numberphile has a couple neat videos on randomness, here's one
I feel like lucky procs all the time for me, while Wheel of Fortune is a constant source of disappointment.
I counted and it took no less than 15 tries before it ever worked for me. Ever since then then my rates have improved but I'm still highly skeptical of the "1 in 4" written on the card.
Wait this card does more than “nope”?!
The odds never stack, so it’s not like you are due a win just because there were so many “nope!”s. It’s always 1 in 4, which is 25% chance (0% in xcom terms).
this post was submitted on 06 Jan 2025
204 points (96.4% liked)
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