My magic eightball says, "Signs point to yes" - we're in a global state where every winter there are pretty significant health risks to flying and outbreaks... if you don't know someone with long COVID then you're extremely lucky, it's really degenerative in some people I love.

The difference is that if something like those first two COVID winters happened again it's unlikely we'd see any sort of mass order (and government mandate to allow remote work) in America like we saw before. But up here in Vancouver most jobs that can be done remotely have now shifted to that and people avoid going to crowded places when an outbreak is happening. You'll often just see Skytrain extremely vacant if people have heard a flu is going around.

Countries outside the US have invested independently in better staffed research teams to fight annual outbreaks and sane countries have rolling mailing lists (I got an invitation two weeks ago for my next free shot!) about when to top up your flu/covid/rsv vaccine. If the US wants to be a breeding ground for outbreaks we can't stop them, but we're trying to insulate Canada as well as possible and working with the EU to do so.

Americans take credit for many things where their contribution is null. If anything, we'll probably be safer 5y down the line because there will be less people trying to profit from pandemic potential diseases (tamiflu much...)

Just wait til the CDC is gutted while at the precipice of a bird flu pandemic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CyVi4UzKxE&list=LL&index=8

I realize this link doesn't directly answer your question, but it was the right technical level for me to better understand what's the big deal about the bird flu. And it has some comments about the state of healthcare here in the US & what we're doing (not doing) to prevent another pandemic. I liked it enough that I watched all 40 minutes, so I guess that's something? lol.

Can the other developed nations mount a credible pandemic response without the resources of the USA?

Yes. Just to show you an example from the other end of the developmental spectrum: even North Korea made it through COVID virtually without any resources.

You speak English. There is an at least partially English speaking country to your North. There are more English speaking ones scattered around the world. Most cutting edge research in anything will eventually end up in an English version if it was from somewhere-elsistan originally. The US is/was not the only country with something like the CDC. If you google their counterparts I would not be surprised if you found a warning about a measles outbreak in Texas. The research will be done elsewhere; the US may only lose its leadership position in the field.

BTW I would call the US response to COVID-19 just as shambolic as any other country's. The only difference was maybe they could throw more money at the problem. And that they could do again.

No country will be fully prepared. Ever. We don't know what the next pandemic will be, we don't know when it will happen. The lab coats will have an idea but it's too vague to build policy around that in a world, where there continues to be no glory in prevention. Stockpiles will perish, emergency plans will gather dust, and we will all be shocked and surprised again.

Humanity was sort of lucky that two Turkish scientists were quick to realize they could use a DNA something something method, that was not held in the highest regard in scientific circles before COVID hit, to make a vaccine in record time. They did that in Europe.

I can't speak for the political aspects.

CSIS has a interesting talk on the politics of global health https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnErbYQ55kY

However, the global metabolic crisis is a huge risk factor for pandemics. People with compromised immune systems are far more likely to be affected by or disabled by global pandemics. In the USA something like 8% of adults have ideal metabolic health, that means 92% have a compromised immune system

Call it conspiracy theory or good science, either way, as the ice melts I think it’s likely. Especially when we go poking around to see what’s what as it happens.