US airstrikes on Yemen continue for the 15th night in a row, with multiple airstrikes reported in Saada city and Saada Governorate.

More strikes reported in Saada and Sana'a Governorates.

No statement from the Yemeni Armed Forces tonight. This is the third night in a row of US airstrikes with no statement by them, and there have been no operations against Israel either during this time period (announced or unannounced), no ballistic or cruise missiles launched at Israel.

Al Masirah TV twitter

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New Big Serge just dropped

TL;DR Big Serge sees negotiations as untenable and theater. Russia is winning on the battlefield and Ukraine cannot, politically, make any meaningful concessions, which means that fighting will settle this and likely in Russia’s favor.

Thesis:

I have never made any bones about my belief that the war in Ukraine will be resolved militarily: that is, it will be fought to its conclusion and end in the defeat of Ukraine in the east, Russian control of vast swathes of the country, and the subordination of a rump Ukraine to Russian interests. Trump’s self conception is greatly tied up in his image as a “dealmaker”, and his view of foreign affairs as fundamentally transactional in nature. As the American president, he has the power to force this framing on Ukraine, but not on Russia. There remain intractable gulfs between Russia’s war aims and what Kiev is willing to discuss, and it is doubtful that Trump will be able to reconcile these differences. Russia, however, does not need to accept a partial victory simply in the name of goodwill and negotiation. Moscow has recourse to a more primal form of power. The sword predates and transcends the pen. Negotiation, as such, must bow to the reality of the battlefield, and no amount of sharp deal making can transcend the more ancient law of blood.

Classic battlefield analysis of the Kursk offensive, good slop for you war nerds (Russia focused on the flanks while Ukraine mostly prioritized depth over breadth):

Despite their tactical surprise and the early capture of Sudzha, the AFU was never able to parlay this into a meaningful penetration or exploitation in Kursk. Why? The answer seems to be a nexus of operational and technical problems the Ukrainians were unable to create a wide penetration into Russia (for the most part, the “opening” of their salient was less than 30 miles wide), which greatly reduced the number of roads available to them for supply and reinforcement. The narrow penetration and poor road access in turn allowed the Russians to concentrate strike systems on the few available lines of communication, to the effect that the Ukrainians struggled to either supply or reinforce the grouping based around Sudzha - this low logistical and reinforcement connectivity in turn made it impossible for the Ukrainians to stage additional forces to try and expand the salient. This created a positive feedback loop of confinement and isolation for the Ukrainian grouping which made their defeat more or less inevitable.

At the risk of making a perilous historical analogy, the operational form was very similar to the famous 1944 Battle of the Bulge: taken by surprise by a German counteroffensive, Dwight Eisenhower prioritized limiting the width, rather than the depth of the German penetration, moving reinforcements to defend the “shoulders” of the salient.

Operationally, the main distinctive of the fighting in Kursk is the orthogonal orientation of effort by the combatants. By this, we mean that Russian counteroffensives were directed at the flanks of the salient, steadily compressing the Ukrainians into a more narrow position (by the end of 2024, the Ukrainians had lost half of the territory they once held), while Ukrainian efforts to restart their progress were aimed at moving deeper into Russia.

On a schematic level, the Ukrainian position in Kursk was doomed by mid-September when Russian troops recaptured Snagost. If the Ukrainians had successfully isolated the south bank of the Seym, they would have had the river as a valuable defensive barrier protecting their left flank as well as access to valuable space and additional supply roads. As it happened, the Ukrainian flank was crumpled early in the operation by the Russian victories at Korenevo and Snagost, which left Ukraine trying to fight its way out of a very compressed and road-poor salient. The (correct) Russian decision to concentrate its counterattacks on the flanks further compressed the space and left the Ukrainians with inadequate supply linkages subject to persistent Russian drone strikes.

Confinement bred strangulation, and strangulation bred confinement. Fighting with a caved in flank for months, the Ukrainian grouping was doomed to operational sterility and eventual defeat almost at the outset.

The state of the front (multiple ongoing collapses for Ukraine and more to come):

The Kursk salient is the second front to be fully collapsed by the Russian Army in the past three months. The first was the southern Donetsk front, which was completely caved in over the course of December and then rolled up in the opening weeks of the year, which had the effect of not only knocking the AFU out of longstanding strongholds like Ugledar and Kurakhove, but also safeguarding the flank of the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk.

There was no Toretsk counter-offensive. Rather Russia was claiming a victory it hadn’t achieved:

It appears that what actually happened was rather that the Russian MoD announced the capture of the city while its extremities were still contested. Russian forces remain in control of the bulk of the city, but Ukrainian units remain dug at the periphery and fighting has continued in the “grey zone.” DeepState (a Ukrainian mapping project) confirmed that there was no general Ukrainian counterattack - rather, the fighting was simply part of a continuous struggle for the western periphery of the city.

Negotiation is theater (return to thesis):

So long as Russia continues to advance on the battlefield, they have no incentive to (as they would see it) rob themselves of a full victory by accepting a truncated and premature settlement.

The problem for Ukraine, if history is any guide, is that it is not actually very easy to surrender. In the First World War, Germany surrendered while its army was still in the field, fighting in good order far from the German heartland. This was an anticipatory surrender, born of a realistic assessment of the battlefield which indicated that German defeat was an inevitability. Berlin therefore opted to bow out prematurely, saving the lives of its young men once the struggle had become hopeless. This decision, of course, was poorly received, and was widely denounced as betrayal and cowardice. It became a politically scarring watershed moment that shaped German sensibilities and revanchist drives for decades to come.

So long as Zelensky’s government continues to receive western support and the AFU remains in the field - even if it is being steadily rolled back and chewed up all along the front - it is difficult to imagine Kiev acceding to an anticipatory surrender. Ukraine must choose between doing this the easy way and the hard way, as the parlance goes, but this is not really a choice at all, particularly given the Kremlin’s insistence that a change of government in Kiev is a prerequisite to peace as such. Any successful path to a negotiated piece runs through the ruins of Zelensky’s government, and is therefore largely precluded at the moment.

So for all the diplomatic cinema, the brute reality of the battlefield remains the same. The battlefield is the first principle, and the ultimate repository of political power. The diplomat is a servant of the warrior, and Russia takes recourse to the fist and the boot and the bullet.

Dear comrades, if your protest has any dudes in superhero costumes, meme signs or excessive signs in English if you're not in an English-speaking country, then I'm truly sorry, because your protest is already doomed. Look at Turkey, their protest thing felt serious for like a day, then it turned into goon material for the r/Europe cucks, and now the English signs and the superheroes have arrived. My estimation now is that Erdoğan will rule for another two decades before Allah elevates him to the seventh heaven. I'm not even praising Erdoğan here, it's just that his opponents have fatal liberal brainworms, where protests are held not as a disruptive tool to pressure the ruling government, but as an elaborate esoteric pledge of allegiance to western cultural hegemony. Georgia was the same, and it also failed.

Look at my protest dog:

Not really news, but what do you think was up with the transformer shootings early last year?

Per Reuters: "CK Hutchison will not sign deal to sell strategic Panama ports next week, sources say"

Looks like the Chinese threats against CK Hutchinson, and their directives to state owned enterprises to cease business with CK Hutchinson in response to them potentially signing this deal, might have worked their magic.

Hasan mentioned he plans on having a Cuban doctor on his stream today, to talk about Rubio imposing sanctions on countries that utilize Cuban doctors. Should be a good listen, probably will be available on YouTube later if you can’t catch it live.

Sky News Arabia claims to have received a copy of Trump's letter to Iran and Khamenei. I'll post it here below:

EU boots in Ukraine will only make it more likely for the ukronazis to try and pull some false flag shit in order to try and recapture the Donbass and Crimea, this time with full EU support, not only in material but also with troops. They're kicking us towards open conflict with russia and tell us its to preserve peace. Only Meloni is acting as a voice of reason (still dont have to hand it to 'em). Fuck me i hate this place.

Every Western outlet stumbling over itself to report on “anti-Hamas” protests in Gaza is some heinous shit.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/03/26/middleeast/why-gazans-are-protesting-hamas-now-intl-latam

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g71lk09npo.amp

A photo of it was also near the top of Reddit, and there’s dozens of top comments about “it looks like they’re all children!” and of course blaming the genocide on Hamas from their enlightened perch inside the empire that is responsible for the genocide.

https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/1jkekcz/antihamas_protesters_in_gaza_call_for_an_end_to/

… it says a lot about Western “civilization” that witnessing a few hundred children allegedly protesting the Resistance evokes more empathy than the slaughter of tens of thousands by the empire. Complete dehumanization, until they can be straw-manned into a pro-empire position

I think the most infuriating thing to me about the liberal reactions to foreign students being disappeared by Israel Criticism Enforcement officers is that it's seemingly almost entirely focused on that they were in plain clothes or wearing masks, or literally a litany of other bullshit instead of the fact we are eroding probably the most unique constitutional liberty America has for the benefit of a foreign nation. If you go look at shitlib subreddits, you basically have to scroll down the bottom before you see anyone even mention Israel. Lots of talk about Nazis or gestapo or brown shirts, but absolutely no acknowledgment of the country this is being done in behalf of.

Dead Letters: Neoliberalism Kills Mail Delivery In Denmark

Postal services in the Nordic hermit kingdom will cease at the end of this year after 401 years of continuous operations. Postal operator PostNord, a neoliberal "run it like a business" abomination jointly owned by the Danish and Swedish states, has announced that it is no longer profitable to distribute letters and that they will end the service. The iconic red letterboxes will be removed from the streets, postage stamps will no longer be issued and 1.500 mail carriers will be fired.

Imma be honest, courts in developing countries have more teeth than this.

https://x.com/ryangrim/status/1905604580957729119