I completely agree. I've made several comments about just how time sensitive everything is in terms of what both sides of the current conflict would want to achieve. Arguably this applies to American current interests as a whole. It's no coincidence that the 2027 deadline for Xi's imminent invasion of Taiwan keeps being brought up as if its something they PRC has actually ever stated.

There is undoubtedly a sense of urgency within the current western leadership. As much as people have lamented at the quagmire that Ukraine has become for Russia I would say that it is just as much of a quagmire for the US in terms of materiel which is why it has become so eager to throw the issue of Zelensky onto the Europeans.

Likewise the recent development of the BRI especially in Iran's case has twofold implications that I think would have accelerated the US in terms of their decisions. Firstly, with the development of the landbased rail link, the near nuclear option of decimating regional trade through the blockade of the sea of Hormuz and the destruction of regional oil and gas infrastructure has less of an effect on Iran as a whole. Secondly, with more economic linkage between Iran and the East, it would likely be only a matter of time before further reorientation occurred. The US could always attempt some level of soft coup using the entrenched assets but this comes with its own set of risks.

So it makes total sense for them to suddenly understand the risks they were dealing with. In their calculus striking while the rail link is still relatively new and things have yet to establish themselves fully was probably the best course of action. The issue was of course, they heavily underestimated the resolve of the Iranians and so now are forced to go all in.

Markets are already closed for the Juneteenth holiday.

More evidence to reinforce the idea that they really are shaken up by the magnitude of the Iranian response. Hopefully this also means that they lack clear consensus on how to move forward.

https://xcancel.com/sentdefender/status/1934795792046272750

Photos are currently circulating which appear to show three ships on fire off the coast of Iran in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz. NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) Map appearing to confirm three fires in the Gulf of Oman.

Hard to tell what exactly is on fire right now but likely to be Iranian naval vessels as I don't believe Iran has begun shutting down the strait. However, this could easily start to escalate towards a blockade of the Strait if Iran feels that it is in their interest to pull that lever in light of today's events. Oil has already spiked nearly 14% in price in the past week so for everyone not directly involved in the actual conflict this sort of disruption will certainly cause economic hardship for the average person as energy and shipping costs go up.

Expanding on my comment earlier it isn't much of a surprise that the escalation has reached this point. The next couple of days will undoubtedly result in the unnecessary loss of lives and infrastructure as I believe that the current western actions are meant to further shock and awe the Iranians back onto the negotiating table as a nuclear Iran is existential in nature to the Israeli project.

However, this will not go nuclear as some commentators are fearing for the main reason that it would be self defeating for both the US and Israel as a whole. The nature of nuclear deterrence is paradoxical almost. If you want a solid threat of nuclear deterrence than the #1 thing you cannot do is show that you are actually willing to go nuclear in a non retaliatory way. Doing so would change the calculus for any opposition that you wish to engage in militarily in the future. In this case nuking Iran who is on the cusp of nuclear capabilities is in practice no different from first striking an actually nuclear capable state as it indicates you are willing to attempt to decapitate them before they can retaliate. The use of nukes would thereby actually encourage opposition to first strike you first if they believe you wish to engage on them in the future. A dark forest scenario if you will. This is both important to Israel as it would encourage everyone in the region to move first at some point in the future to avoid nukes and perhaps more importantly would greatly affect the US's ability to credibly go against China and Russia.

In total, the absolute worse case scenario going forward from a leftist perspective is if Iran is more of a paper tiger than the US is. If the leadership collapses and their ability to complete the bomb in a timely manner is compromised then they will likely be forced into a disadvantageous agreement and cease to be eventually. If they've dragged their feet in their development of nukes this could also result in a very uncomfortable time for Iran. I am not an expert on the ME but based off of other commentators I do not see them as that weak. Optimistically outside of this worse case scenario this will be a severe blow towards US imperial ambitions going forward.

If this level of bombing and attacks do not work to dissuade the development of the nuke in Iranian research sites deep underground and the Iranians refuse to comply with the NPT than the only card the US has left is to either acquiesce to Iran who will at this point all but certainly complete the bomb or go boots to the ground. Such an operation would come at a high price and would not even be guaranteed to succeed. Staging for even the Iraq war at what was arguably the height of American power took several months and occurred when support for such actions from the public were at an all time high. One may argue that leadership would force the issue but military manpower is currently at an all time low. Any delays and any time given to the Iranians is time they will use to develop their nuclear capabilities which will result in a strategic defeat for the west.

In all, this is now a race against time for both sides. My hope is that in the face of such destruction that the spirit if the Iranian people may persevere even in the face of such evil.

They're still killing people unfortunately. There were some posts on the last mega of massacres at aid points still. However, assets are being pulled from Gaza in order to fortify areas against possible Iranian and other resistance entities like Hezbollah potentially so there is that. Until the entity is in true crises the genocide will unfortunately continue.

https://x.com/MOSSADil/status/1934620239276154998

Iran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to ask Trump to pressure Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire, two Iranian and three regional sources told Reuters.

https://x.com/firstsquawk/status/1934611831102095616

OIL FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES, U.S. CRUDE DOWN BY $3 AND BRENT CRUDE DOWN BY $2 A BARREL AS IRAN SEEKS TALKS WITH U.S. AND ISRAEL TO END HOSTILITIES

It would seem like there is an attempt in the western block to create a narrative that the Iranians are attempting to deescalate. This runs counter to other sources I've seen that are more Iranian aligned unless anyone else out here has some decent sources backing up the above claims. My best guess is US is looking for an off ramp since the current violence is causing too much uncontrollable instability for the entity or they're providing cover for the Nimitz and other assets in order to surprise Iran like they did last week. At this point I'm actually pretty optimistic that the turn of events over the weekend were not within US calculations and now they're scrambling to adjust, hopefully with more severe consequences down the line.

This is one of the reason's and biggest contradictions on why the current situation is so risky for Israel and the US. Iran and by extension any opposition in the area does not need to land a decisive blow and literally destroy the entity in its entirely. Instead it just needs to give enough reason for the vast majority of the wealthy elites that provide the base of support to leave. Crippling economic and technological capabilities to the point where the risk adjusted returns of the project isn't worth it is one of the ways this can go.

Even if the ISSraeli government pushes people back to work as you suggest that would likely just exacerbate the issue and convince more settlers to leave. It's a lose lose situation which is why they must either escalate and swiftly destroy the Iranian's or back peddle hard to deescalate the situation. Any sort of in between situation leading to a long drawn out conflict with heightened tensions will lead to the entity slowly bleeding out.

As others have stated they need American assistance now. I believe the reality has set in that they've bit off more than they can chew as demonstrated by their attempt to communicate with the Iranians through a third party which got rebuffed. I suppose now the plan is to garner as much western sympathy as possible in order to draw in the Americans and maybe the Europeans into putting boots on the ground or to at the minimum create enough international pushback towards Iran so that they deescalate.

Yup seeing images of settlers violence against the innocent always makes my stomach churn so this is certainly a nice change of pace from the usual doom and gloom.

Doomers complaining about no declaration of war from Khamenei two hours ago in shambles.

An alleged close up clip of an impact near tel aviv. Think you can seen some attempts at interception at the beginning as well.