European countries plan to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which includes sending mine-clearing and other military vessels - WSJ Live Paywalled I believe is the source
The Europeans once again attempting to make themselves relevant in probably the worst way possible.
Quick Hormuz and US Blockade Updates:
Seems like a slow escalation until the ceasefire period is over with the US moving assets into the area under the guise of the blockade.
Trump on Iran talks from this morning:
Markets seem to be liking these statements although I think we can safely say this is him just lying his ass off to try to mitigate the situation in the short term.
Trump is preparing military action if Iran fails to comply with ongoing talks, per NYP. Trump says U.S. warships are being reloaded in case negotiations break down - bloomberg
There were also reports of attacks 3-4 hours ago in Kuwait according to some of the middle eastern Telegrams.
I don't think it's a stretch that hostilities will probably increase over the weekend considering the fact that apparently no one agreed on anything from the beginning. I also don't believe the week of resupply is enough for the US either way. Personally I'm actually pretty convinced that this whole negotiated debacle is mostly on the shoulders of Pakistan and secondarily the Chinese depending on how much of an actual influence they had. It seems to me as the primary middleman Pakistan may have been too eager to try to push something through and thus ended up throwing both sides in a loop. I'm not getting much sense that either Iran or the Americans were all that eager to commit to anything at this point to be honest.
IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Statement:
Aggression against the proud Hezbollah is aggression against Iran. The battlefield is preparing a heavy response to the Israeli regime's savage crimes.
Seems like retaliatory strikes from Iran are imminent
*NETANYAHU RAISED LEBANON ISSUE WITH TRUMP IN PHONE CALL LAST NIGHT, TRUMP DID NOT OPPOSE CONTINUING FIGHT WITH HEZBOLLAH - AXIOS
If what is being is said is true then the ceasefire is effectively dead as long as Iran keeps to its red lines. The strait will remain closed which trump has said the ceasefire is contingent on.
IRAN'S FARS NEWS AGENCY SAYS OIL TANKERS PASSING THROUGH HORMUZ HAVE BEEN STOPPED AFTER ISRAEL'S 'CEASEFIRE BREACH'
So more confirmation on some telegram posts I saw earlier. Reuters seems to be echoing the same thing and oil seems to have spiked about 2% in the last 15 mins or so as a response. I think it would be a safe bet to say if the escalation continues it may be even more rapid than the previous month.
“Iran is preparing a military response to the Israeli aggression carried out in Lebanon”
Well that was a nice ~12 hours or so I guess.
Edit w/ Quick Update:
Iran shot down an israeli Hermes 900 drone that entered Iranian airspace.
IRGC: Any enemy aircraft entering our airspace is a ceasefire violation and will get a decisive response.
Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi discussed ceasefire violations in Iran and Lebanon in a call with Pakistan’s army chief.
An official Iranian source to Fars: We’re considering attacks on israeli targets over the Lebanon ceasefire breach.
Iran has urgently informed Pakistan it will respond to "israel" after the truce was violated and Lebanon was bombed.
1? more quick update since this post is pretty visible still:
Reuters seems to be reporting that ships are saying Iran is sending them messages that the strait is still closed. Marinetrafic shows little movement as of now for ships.
Tasnim is reporting that Iran is considering withdrawing from the ceasefire and the talks slated for friday if attacks on lebanon continue.
As an aside oil seems to be moving up again probably due to all these factors after dropping some ~17% overnight
More evidence to reinforce the idea that they really are shaken up by the magnitude of the Iranian response. Hopefully this also means that they lack clear consensus on how to move forward.
Expanding on my comment earlier it isn't much of a surprise that the escalation has reached this point. The next couple of days will undoubtedly result in the unnecessary loss of lives and infrastructure as I believe that the current western actions are meant to further shock and awe the Iranians back onto the negotiating table as a nuclear Iran is existential in nature to the Israeli project.
However, this will not go nuclear as some commentators are fearing for the main reason that it would be self defeating for both the US and Israel as a whole. The nature of nuclear deterrence is paradoxical almost. If you want a solid threat of nuclear deterrence than the #1 thing you cannot do is show that you are actually willing to go nuclear in a non retaliatory way. Doing so would change the calculus for any opposition that you wish to engage in militarily in the future. In this case nuking Iran who is on the cusp of nuclear capabilities is in practice no different from first striking an actually nuclear capable state as it indicates you are willing to attempt to decapitate them before they can retaliate. The use of nukes would thereby actually encourage opposition to first strike you first if they believe you wish to engage on them in the future. A dark forest scenario if you will. This is both important to Israel as it would encourage everyone in the region to move first at some point in the future to avoid nukes and perhaps more importantly would greatly affect the US's ability to credibly go against China and Russia.
In total, the absolute worse case scenario going forward from a leftist perspective is if Iran is more of a paper tiger than the US is. If the leadership collapses and their ability to complete the bomb in a timely manner is compromised then they will likely be forced into a disadvantageous agreement and cease to be eventually. If they've dragged their feet in their development of nukes this could also result in a very uncomfortable time for Iran. I am not an expert on the ME but based off of other commentators I do not see them as that weak. Optimistically outside of this worse case scenario this will be a severe blow towards US imperial ambitions going forward.
If this level of bombing and attacks do not work to dissuade the development of the nuke in Iranian research sites deep underground and the Iranians refuse to comply with the NPT than the only card the US has left is to either acquiesce to Iran who will at this point all but certainly complete the bomb or go boots to the ground. Such an operation would come at a high price and would not even be guaranteed to succeed. Staging for even the Iraq war at what was arguably the height of American power took several months and occurred when support for such actions from the public were at an all time high. One may argue that leadership would force the issue but military manpower is currently at an all time low. Any delays and any time given to the Iranians is time they will use to develop their nuclear capabilities which will result in a strategic defeat for the west.
In all, this is now a race against time for both sides. My hope is that in the face of such destruction that the spirit if the Iranian people may persevere even in the face of such evil.
https://x.com/MOSSADil/status/1934620239276154998
Iran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to ask Trump to pressure Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire, two Iranian and three regional sources told Reuters.
https://x.com/firstsquawk/status/1934611831102095616
OIL FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES, U.S. CRUDE DOWN BY $3 AND BRENT CRUDE DOWN BY $2 A BARREL AS IRAN SEEKS TALKS WITH U.S. AND ISRAEL TO END HOSTILITIES
It would seem like there is an attempt in the western block to create a narrative that the Iranians are attempting to deescalate. This runs counter to other sources I've seen that are more Iranian aligned unless anyone else out here has some decent sources backing up the above claims. My best guess is US is looking for an off ramp since the current violence is causing too much uncontrollable instability for the entity or they're providing cover for the Nimitz and other assets in order to surprise Iran like they did last week. At this point I'm actually pretty optimistic that the turn of events over the weekend were not within US calculations and now they're scrambling to adjust, hopefully with more severe consequences down the line.
PRES. TRUMP TOLD ADVISORS IN SITUATION ROOM THAT RESUMING BOMBING OR WALKING AWAY WAS RISKIER THAN EXTENDING BLOCKADE - WSJ
Looks like they're looking to extend this stalemate. The cynical interpretation is they simply need more time to prepare for whatever plans they have and don't want to or can't keep selling the deal is imminent lie.