Wow, a coherent analysis.

It's worth reiterating just how outnumbered Russian forces were in 2022, with the Ukrainians possessing around a 4 to 1 advantage in manpower in theatre, and both sides using very similar equipment. I was shocked when Russia invaded. The western media endlessly repeated that the Russians had 150,000 troops on the border, and my thoughts were "nothing will happen until that at least doubles".

Winter is closing in now. Ukraine once again has a few months of relative stability to "recruit" and theorize on how to organize and equip a new new new model army for the third year running. This time, there isn't much to base their forces around. Even MRAP's are getting increasing scarce. This time, they might accept that their their forces have some operational limitations imposed on them by equipment deficiencies. Right now I think Ukraine is the weakest it has been, but, next year we'll likely finally see increases production and provision of NATO equipment to Ukraine.

It's grim, and it's a long way from over for everyone involved.

It's Joever.

I'm glad you're safe.

Honestly it barely even matters anymore.

We've had over two years that have firmly established that Ukraine will never admit to fault, even when air defence missiles slam into apartment blocks, or land on people in foreign countries. Just ridiculous extraordinary lies that leave even their allies shocked by their willingness to deny the clear truth.

We've had over two years that have firmly established that Russia is playing things extraordinarily ethically and doing their level best to (unexpectedly) meticulously avoid civilian casualties when striking targets behind the frontlines. Certainly, far more ethically than "international community" involved wars over the past 20 years.

I have no doubt that the Russians didn't plan to terrorbomb a children's hospital.

The RAND Corporation study that was used as the template for America's war in Ukraine specifically outlines the scenario where Russia reindustralises and wins. The conclusion is: this is unlikely, but would be catastrophic.

Ukraine speedrunning the collapse of Donbas by redirecting troops into what looks like bait.

Kanakay is going to end up like Hawaii if they don't get the French out now.

The red sea is already closed to genocide-axis shipping. Trying to actually obliterate a US warship would be a needless escalation considering the already successful blockade.

Using the example of USS Gravely though, it has 96 missile cells (that must be rearmed at port). They contain a mixture of cruise missiles and interceptor missiles. Gravely has been firing cruise missiles, so it doesn't have a full load of interceptors. The Aegis system as standard fires 2 interceptor missiles at each incoming target (they cost $2.5M each), so if half of the ships cells are loaded with interceptors, it has enough to intercept 24 incoming objects before having to go home to rearm. If Ansar Allah keeps firing small raids of missiles, they can deplete the US Navy's ability to remain in the area without actually having to escalate in a flashy way by destroying a genocide-axis warship.

One implication of this is that the US Navy would not be able to operate for very long in a war with China before suffering total depletion of interceptors.

Hannibal doctrine is the mark of true civilisation. It's what separates us from the brown non-people.

Israeli infantry are poorly trained conscripts, as are their tankers. Their vanguard troops are told to engage any human target in front of their positions in Gaza, which means the IOF has a persistent friendly fire problem that is mitigated by keeping the infantry to the rear forming a kind of cordon that keeps their bulldozers and engineers safe further behind them.

The other issue is that the tanks at the tip of the Israeli push will be equipped with Trophy APS - Hamas would fire old obsolete weapons at the tanks from random directions in order to make the tanks unload giant automated anti-rocket shotgun blasts into their infantry escort.

The tanks are on their own.

Democratic governance is 40 years of the same guy who's France's pet dictator.

This was seen with the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. The Azeri's went down a targeting list in order of strict priority, and you could see they had won when they ran out of anti-aircraft and artillery targets to hit, then started hitting trucks, then started hitting truck-less infantry trying to limp a retreat home.