submarines can disrupt shipping lanes vital for Chinese exports. Blowing up a few container ships and the global trade gets stunted to a halt. This will significantly damage both the US and China’s economies. The US has food and fuel, China needs to import food and fuel (and a lot of them came from America too), so the question is: who can survive longer?

Sorry but this a reddit tier analysis.

To begin with such an attempt by the US would come after some PRC blockade or kinetic action on Taiwan and as a result even if we assume what you say is credible as an anti-China strategy the answer to the question of "who can survive longer?" is by and far "not Taiwan". If the US doesnt attempt to actively break a Chinese blockade in a scale that matters or engage invading Chinese forces, so actualy engage in war in that theater, then Taiwan will capitulate in weeks and then its over. US cant get it back and them continuing to destroy the most important shipping lanes in the world after China already takes Taiwan is silly. For the effects of a blockade to even be felt by China, Taiwan would have to hold for over a year due to the size of China's stockpiles, which in and of itself is a highly questionable assumption given that unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is extremely reliant on trade for basically everything from food to fuel. If Taiwan falls in a few months which is a good case scenario for them, the blockade will likely not force China to relinquish control. If Taiwan doesn't fall in a few months, it won't be because of the blockade. A blockade cant be done with some subs striking rando ships. Its a completely lopsided resource drain for little to no immediate battlefield benefit which is what Taiwan needs. If Taiwan is successfully cut off from world trade, they have virtually no chance of lasting for very long and given deteriorating domestic conditions, they could probably be convinced to capitulate.

Lets talk self sufficency tho because you overstate chinese food and fuel dependance.

China produces 4.3m bpd, imports 11.4m bpd crude but exports 1.1m bpd refined. They can get abt 2-3m bpd from Russia. 400k bpd from Myanmar & Kazakhstan thru pipeline. Getting 6.5m bpd during an emergency is easily do-able.

Stopping half the flights, shipping & gas cars can cut abt 5-6m bpd of usage and in general gasoline/diesel usage can be reduced to minimal levels in such situation since NEVs are everywhere and they will be even more so everywhere with each coming year. Petrochem usage can be reduced through higher utilization in coal-to-chem plants + more imports over land. Food, Crude & refined products can be transported in over land through trains & trucks. North Sea Routes add additional shipping capacity - US would bring Russia into conflict if Russian tankers are targeted in their own water. China also has the option to increase the capacity from Russia but chose to not do it currently. If China bellived this was a problem they would have approved power of the Siberia 2 and other pipelines.

There is basically no way you can actually choke off Chinese economy through sea blockades of energy imports once its this far along in electrification of is transportation sector. And that's assuming you can choke off its energy routes to Middle East, which is dubious since any such effort would actually destroy Japan & SK + most of southeast Asia, who do not have the option of turning to EVs or coal chemical plants or importing via pipeline/shipping from Russia & Central Asia. Any real blockade would blockade ASEAN countries as well as Eastern Asian ones from the necessary energy imputs to have their economies functioning. You will be facing off against a southeast Asia who would also be eager to break off any blockade and work with china to get around it in any way possible in order to not collapse economicaly before even China feels the heat. You basicaly surrender the entire region to China and even make sure Japan and SK cant and dont join you in any action

There is also the feasibility of such blockade in the first place. Striking a couple of ingoing and outgoing comersial ships to China wont do shit to make the roots stop, which in the first place would collapse the economies of every signle country in the erea before china even feels it. To actually be effective you would have to manage an actual blockade of Malacca and likely more than just that since there are alternative, albeit slightly longer, routes due to the fact Indonesia is an archipelago. There exists the Sunda Strait just to the south next to Java and the Lombok Strait further east. If the Strait of Malacca is blockaded, it would be trivial for ships to divert towards the Sunda Strait or the Lombok Strait and completely circumvent the American blockade so for an effective blockade, the USN would have to blockade all three straits. That's a lot of resources the USN needs to divert away from the actual battle happening in the Pacific towards a blockade that won't have much of an immediate impact on the actual battle happening.

The USN will have to question if implementing three blockades in Southeast Asia is an effective use of their very limited resources against an opponent which will have a massive local superiority in forces.. The US needs as many assets in the fight to even stand a chance as is, there is little point crippling the world economy even more and putting South Korea and Japan on ticking time bombs by blockading three straits in and around Indonesia.

You also cant trivialize the amount of resources required to screen tens of thousands of ships carrying trillions worth of trade. Not as in "please report your manifest so we can carry out mutually beneficial peacetime commerce" but "physically verify every ship is carrying what it says and going where it says because they have a huge profit motive to lie." And that's not even counting all the ships who actually do dock in SEA, but whose cargos go to China by rail. The ships have no control over what happens to their cargos after they offload. The other option is what . Striking ships that may or may not be going to any random port or country in the erea. A logistical impossibility. Never mind that the US cant actualy track most container ships either in port or out in the sea if they dont want to be tracked. Let alone know which are china bound. Ship-tracking satellites do not exist. This is a fantasy. Its difficult it is to keep track of even just a ship in the vast open ocean, let alone thousands of them.

The US also just cant sink the ships when they are close to dock in China or leave china. The USN will be lucky to even have a few ships survive within stand-off ranges from the Chinese coastline. South China Se is pretty much a complete no-go for the USN considering the shallow waters reduces the effectiveness of submarine stealth, and the thousands of air and see sensors China has littered the erea with. The entire sea is well within range of China's absolutely gargantuan stockpile of AShMs and is close enough to Chinese air bases that the PLARF will have a massive numerical superiority to any potential USAF/USN aerial assets in the region. I highly doubt the USN will have any SSNs to spare for patrols of the straits around Indonesia to begin with when they will be desperately needed in the Pacific. The USN is already dealing with a serious hull shortage even during peacetime. I don't understand how people can expect the USN to have multiple SSNs available for something like a blockade when they'll need every little bit of help they can get in the Pacific. A very limited number of American SSNs who will already be tasked with the monumental job of surviving China's massive and extensive ASW network of ships, helicopters, submarines, aircraft and land-based sensors whilst at the same time finding, targeting and engaging Chinese warships will now also be tasked with implementing a blockade and attacking any and all vessels in the region, exhausting their already limited torpedo and Tomahawk supplies. This does not seem like a very useful way to utilise the only USN assets that have a higher degree of survivability within 1,000 km of Chinese shores given that these assets will likely have an actual amphibious invasion that they will need to stop.

Cause again sea trade in the erea wont stop just because the US randomly strikes 2,5 or even 20 containers they can fet their sights on out of the 1000 per day heading from and to China, never mind that it would be a completely self defeating endeavor in the first place.

Hexbear doing the clickbait anti-china thing where a random proffesor/media person/low level official says something means "China says", weird

Either way expecting the retirement age to never change from an age set when the average life expectency was 50 years is naive. Cuba has higher RE, some eastern bloc countries had higher than China before the change, some the same ,some lower.

Uniquely tho China does need to bridge its current level of development and economy to a highly automated and cleanly electrified one in 30-40 years that can sustain and provide without the same anormous enormous human capital demands as today and for that to happen, since indeed their labor force is slowly shrinking and aging and there is a missmatch of labor demand and supply in certain sectors, a gradual 3-4 year retirement age raise from a low base seens like a huge help.

Idk what the "socialist" idea is? Magicaly make automation increase by an order of magnitude in a decade or import one hundred million workers from the global south

On the other hadn the US Navy admitted that they had instances of last second intercepts of Houthi missiles that got through to the last line of ship defences. A limited number of older iranian missiles managing that doesnt bode well for the carrrier group against an order of magnitude more modern chineae missilies

tbf based on other comments they seem to have also visited Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities which in their own right are seeing faster development and are as impressive as a lot of well functioning European cities. So the overall impression is somewhat representative of the lives of more people than the populations of the US or the EU

probably yeah, and tbf other than those issues i mentioned they are more so 70% good -30% bad in most other stuff from an orthodox Marxist-Lenninist perspective.

On foreign policy matters idk if much shift may happen but it doesnt matter that much. They are still way more anti-Nato than anything else despite their "China and Russia secondary imperialist powers" positions. I have been personaly been told by one the highest ranking party member in foreign relations matters that "yeah of course we will be expanding cooperation with China, Iran ,Russia etc if the party comes to power or win elections and likely preemptively expand party ties with the CPC before that. If they are still chill with us after we Nationalize most of the stuff Chinese multinationals own in Greece that is. Cause from the other side we can only expect a sanctions regime"

On LGBT issues for example a big factor imo was that the party for decades had a much stronger support and membership in older age groups and in ereas outside the biggest 1-2 urban centers (Athens and Thessaloniki). So there wasnt some upwards pressure from inside the org and voter base to "modernize" in those fronts. But their youth league and support has been marketably on the rise in the last couple of years and they are seeing their best electoral gains nationaly in Athens. There will most likely be some incremental change towards better positions going forward instead of a massive shift or realization of "oh we were wrong sorry" and that has already happened in the discorse and analysis within the party compared to lets say 5 years ago. Thats why their positions are so confused and all over the place at the momment. Progressive gender analysis and positions coexist and are expressed together with more conservative understandings that are sadly also boosted by a "reactionary" opposition to US rainbow imperialism and by the trends in capital and neoliberalism subsuming a lot of the LGBT messaging and movement. Those contradiction has led to the party not voting in favor of the Right Wings government's gay marriage and adoption bills,but mostly focusing on their opposition to certain parts of the bill from a socioeconomic PoV that has merrit but in no way excuses not supporting those bills. Stuff like their opposition to the existance and expansion of surrogate motherhood under capitalism , their opposition to economic and social benifits for Gays (as well as straights ) being tied to marriage to begin with. So they can in the same time be for stronger anti-discrimination laws against LGBT people , free trans healthcare etc etc but also force themselves to take nitpicky and incoherent positions on Gay Adoption or Marriage but not necessarily outwardly homophobic ones

Looking at Vietnam's numbers you surely wouldnt guess that its a nation born out of long and violent anticolonial struggle against th west in living memory

He was killed in his house but Kurds both in southwestern Iraq and in Syria obviously hang in and around US bases or any kind of intelligence or other outpost. Prob staff a lot as well. Its not even an open secret or even unofficial in most cases that they ally and collaborate with US (and even israeli) forces, mercs and intelligence in their ereas

Hey that cant be cartoonishly evil. Its on the anarch-kurdist territory there by cooperation with the SDF so its all for the greater good of Actualy Existing Libertarian Confederalism or whatever. Dont expect their presence there being question even by most domestic left "anti-imperialist" voices. USA shouldnt leave and betray them and also the latter dont have any other choice than being comprados and being a side demon to the Great Satan, or so i have been constantly been told

China's share of global manufacturing value added is smth crazy like 35%. It's industrial might overshadows most of the world combined.

On top of that in context of the deleveraging and derisking of the real estate issue the investing and credit domesticaly has been shifting heavilt away from the real estate sector and towards industry and manufacturing

Yeah Chinese household consumption is low (tho I have seen recalculations that put it at or around Japan and SK levels and not notably lower).

So I'm asking you in light of this. How can China NOT be an exporter country? Even if household consumption along with median income approaches western levels (which is a shift that it's unreasonable to ask the Chinese state to manufacture in this short timeframe) China's manufacturing and industrial output is so large that it would still be an exporter country right? Even more so if productivity gains increase in China and the rest of the world doesn't pick up manufacturing wise.

So what does not being an exporter country entails in light of all these? China becoming more financialized and it's manufacturing base not expanding or even decreasing?

Because at current scales, and given that real estate related contributions to gdp are to shrink and have already shrinking the growth, it's industrial and manufacturing sector will only become more dynamic , versatile, efficient and productive while providing jobs to hundred(s) of millions.

It's domestic consumption can't and won't absorb anything close to it's big majority in the foreseeable future even in good case scenarios. So how can China become significantly less of an exporter country or not at all?

Also what would that mean for its foreign relations and soft power? A China that isn't the biggest exporter to most nations is a China easier to isolate with countries more likely to fa in line with US coercion, now having less to lose. Unless it becomes a comperably big importer of goods from these countries, especially as they develop too. So now China will have to absorb a much larger part of its own production and also import enough from other countries to counterbalance the loss in soft power from decreased exports of capital and goods?

Also the US "replacing" it's Chinese imports with other countries (Mexico, Vietnam) is a Potemkin village isn't it? These countries just import parts from China and assemble them to export to the us. Their imports from China follow the growth of their exports to the US EXACTLY. They become more dependent and inter tangled with China while the US isn't untagling itself from Chinese supply chains and production or industry. Just adding a middle man. Have you seen any "decoupling" and "manufacturing moving" that hasn't been that? Why is that such a good deal for the US?

most of these articles going around are a bit old (3-5 years) so ,while there hasnt been some big turnaround, the increase in youth support and younger lower level leadership has made the party move away from such messaging which to begin with was mostly the result of boomer voting base and boomer leadership and not any real material analysis. You can still classify the party positions as class reductionist and wishy washy on whether they would support same sex adoption if it came to vote again but there has been some reapproachment of the issue. For example the party secretary was a guest in the prominent greek LGBT radio show recently and the rhetoric has shifted. Still not great but for a party that has only survived to the strength and orthodoxy that it has through ossifying their position and beliefs and refusing to be swayed by left and right social and political currents change will be slow and comes with the changing of generations. Also greece has the east european deeply religious orthodox church brainworms that have stunned social progressivism in past social experiments to. They probably arent worse on lgbt issue than most second or third world communist parties at this point but since they are big players in domestic policies their positions became more openly contested and layed on the table.

https://www.902.gr/eidisi/politiki/326464/kathe-anthropos-me-opoia-taytotita-fyloy-na-ehei-oles-tis-proypotheseis this is a recent interview on lgbt issues by the party ,pretty understandable by google translation, that shows that while not good the positions have bettered and evolved compared to years past and of course inculde the standard positives that an Communist party should provide (free and accessible trans healthcare even at young ages including hormone therapy and sex change for example).

Chinese socialist revolution before Mao's leadership is pretty legit. Chen Duxiu, Li Dazhao, are all real socialists, they truely cares about the worker and envisions a better future for China.

So no revolution at all? 95% of the critical mass and anything that can be called a large scale revolution (with organizational successes of the masses) happened in China in the 30s and had little to do with Chen Duxiu and Li Dazhao previous work ,no matter how admirable. The CPC almost died and was built back up multiple times by the time Mao succeeded and Mao was vital in that. You cant get more legit than revolution under Mao. Under probably the worst odds and situation any communist party and revolution had to face they endured, made correct and miraculous choices and political and military manuvers at every turn and won, uplifting and liberating hundreds of millions of peasants and women. No Mao, no successfull revolution in China and no emancipation of the masses. Good luck doing the long march and outmanuvering the KMT from the countryside by amassing immense support with Chen Duxiu's ideas about the peasantry.

Chen Duxiu, Li Dazhao may have envisioned a better socialist future for China but they were and would have been unable to make it happen. They lacked both the military genius, the correct analysis on the peasantry or the rhetoric and vision of mass politics that Mao had that allowed the CPC to pull through against all odds and win

Export decrese is in line with almost every other east asian country and its very much so a "western economies go into recession and import less" problem. Groth slowing to ~5% is in line with what everyone is expected and China doesnt sweat too much about it. Its pretty solid especially since its higher quality. Deflation is only a problem if it persists for a long time and if it actualy spans in various types of commodities. If you exclude energy and housing everything else shows small inflation in China still and the real estate sector is going through tough but needed restructuring and regulation periods since last year. Deflation introduced from that part of the economy is more or less a by product of them deleveraging the sector and bursting some bubbles