I have been quite offline this week, so I don't know if this has been posted here, but look at this absolutely incredible Balticpost
We're in the end stage officially. Homs has fallen, which means that government territories are de facto split between the Alawite coast and Damascus. Nearly all suburbs of Damascus including Daraya and Douma have also fallen, so it's probably a battle for the city starting tomorrow. South Rebels have reached Damascus first, but they're not trained and just doing this for fun and friendship, the core HTS grouping are still in the process of combing Homs and they probably need another day to reach Damascus.
Okay, I've made a shitty map of the current situation at around 23:00 Syrian time on the 6th of December. This is based on Telegram news mostly and probably very inaccurate in the south, but the situation is very fluid there. Arrows represent current movements and upcoming movements.
Edit: it's already outdated, that little SAA pocket in Daraa in the south has already fallen
Khan Sheikhoun has fallen, we're officially in the Afghanistan stage now. This is total collapse. Rebels are two empty villages from entering Hama
Iran to finally stop their edging streak 🙏
Ukraine is so funny. There are literally two real sectors of the front that decide the long-term future of the war, the south in Zaporozhye Oblast, and the urban areas in Donetsk. We all like to talk about Kupiansk, Kherson and the Kharkov regions, but the war didn't drastically change when Russia controlled them, and it didn't change when Ukraine took them. The south with its relation to Crimea and the population centers in Donetsk is where the conditions for victory are set for both sides. So what does Ukraine do, they take out some of their best brigades and battalions from Zaporozhye and Donetsk, and send them on a useless adventure in Kursk. Yes they captured a bunch of villages and towns and HUMILIATED Pootin, but Russia have now obliterated Ukrainian defence lines near Pokrovsk and Toretsk and have moved into the connecting towns a few kilometers from Pokrovsk and into the suburbs of Toretsk itself. Absolutely incredible IQ by the Ukrainian command.
Rip bozo, etc
I'm looking forward to the shitshow, one can never log off in this new world
W-wait. What do you mean by Based Jeff Tiedrich?
Daily reminder comrades: never ride a fucking helicopter
I'm on a little posting spree now, but my wife is at her parents house and I'm bored.
Crazy how the Russia vs Ukraine war seems to be developing in the exact way Russian non-doomers started preaching about back in Sep-Oct 22 after the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv and the start of Russian mobilization.
Limited Ukrainian gains that elevate morale but not end the war ✅
Russia ramps up production and mobilizes more troops after chilling too much in the start of the war ✅
Western backers steer Ukraine into investing everything into a summer counter-offensive ✅
Wagner dudes slowly taking Bakhmut despite strong Ukrainian defence ✅
Russia getting its shit together and building good defences ✅
Ukrainian counter-offensive sees limited success but failing hard when it comes to major objectives ✅
Ukraine loses its momentum, West gets bored, Russia gets ready for their offensive --> We're here
Gradual economic, morale and military collapse for Ukraine as Western supports dries up ⏳
Russia regains positive momentum as material gap gets bigger ⏳
Internal issues start to clearly fuck up Ukrainian military operations ⏳
Finally the big fist offensive by Russia that builds the foundations of the end of the war ⏳
وَلَا تَحْسَبَنَّ ٱللَّهَ غَـٰفِلًا عَمَّا يَعْمَلُ ٱلظَّـٰلِمُونَ ۚ إِنَّمَا يُؤَخِّرُهُمْ لِيَوْمٍۢ تَشْخَصُ فِيهِ ٱلْأَبْصَـٰرُ
Do not think that Allah is unaware of what the wrongdoers do. He only delays them until a Day when eyes will stare in horror.
Quran, Surat Ibrahim, 42
My short commentary on this:
A collapse of the Barzani-led Kurdistan Regional Government with the return of the Federal Government to Iraqi Kurdistan would be a net-positive for the region. The KRG colludes with Israel and the US, oppresses all revolutionary activity, and is a neoliberal hellhole with no redeeming qualities unlike Rojava. They are only good at building nice apartment buildings and trafficking women, they can't even pay salaries to their teachers and sanitary workers. Anything that breaks this separatist project is good.