With Catholicism suffering from the death of the Pope and undergoing the whole succession ritual now, let's talk about a different religious group that will undergo the exact same process probably very soon. Shia Islam works remarkably similar to Catholicism, where the position of Grand Marja occupies a similar standing to the Pope within the faith. To summarise the position of the Grand Marja to anyone that haven't heard about it, Shia Islam has a lot of small Popes that reach that status after at least 30-40 years of studying theology, the Grand Marja is the biggest Pope out of the them all. A Shia Muslim can follow the rulings of any of the small Popes, but there's an implicit understanding that everyone respects the big Pope and his word is in the end the most important. The Grand Marja right now is a very old and sick Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who coincidentally is the first ever Shia Grand Marja to meet the Catholic Pope, after a historic meeting in Najaf, Iraq a few years ago.

The discussion within Catholic circles right now is about the conservatism of the next Pope, where Catholics discuss if the next Pope should be woke or not. The discussion around the next Grand Marja is a bit more multifaceted than that even within normie circles that aren't really into theology. I like Catholicism even as a Muslim dude, but the truth is that Catholicism in Europe is basically dead as a relevant political force, while Shia Islam is alive and still very energetic as a political and societal force. The first point of discussion is "how political should the next Grand Marja be?". Sistani is remarkable as the first modern Grand Marja with an active website and everything, but at the same time he's also remarkably media shy and there's still not even a recording of him actually talking. He's also very apolitical, he stood silent during the American invasion of Iraq, he offers no political commentary when it comes to the internal politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and his only outwardly political position was taken during the ISIS campaign across Iraq in 2014, when he declared lawful jihad against ISIS and asked young Shias to join the fight against ISIS, which later led to the creation of the Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.

Now we come to the more woke second discussion point, "should the next Grand Marja be Arab or Persian?". This is basically the eternal Shia idpol dilemma. Sistani is Iranian from the city of Sistan, but has basically lived his entire life in Iraq. The last important Marja before him, Ayatollah Abulqasim Al Khoei was also Iranian, and we have to go back to the 60s to Muhsin Al Hakim, to find a Grand Marja that is considered Arab. Al Hakim is coincidentally the most political Grand Marja in modern history, with his rulings against Arabism and Communism still being debated today and his sons Abdulaziz Al Hakim and Muhammed Baqir Al Hakim were instrumental in the founding of the current Iraqi state after the American invasion. Maybe the Marja shouldn't be Arab if the result is such comprador sons, but that's just my commentary.

We move on to the next discussion point, "should the next Grand Marja be sympathetic to the Sadrists or not?". A short summary of the Sadrist movement coming now. Big family in Iraq and Lebanon, Musa Al Sadr in Lebanon is the spiritual father of all Shia Lebanese, Muhammed Baqir Al Sadr in Iraq basically creates Shia Islamism in Iraq, he also founds the Dawa Party (biggest Shia Islamic political movement in Iraq during the 80s and later), Muhammed Baqir gets executed by Saddam in the early 80s, Dawa Party moves to Iran, regular Shia proletariat in Iraq starts following his cousin Muhammed Sadiq, Muhammed Sadiq gains popularity as a pretty good preacher who says the anti-Saddam stuff without really saying it, he gets assassinated in the late 90s, the preaching stops after his death but his following moves to his surviving son Muqtada Al Sadr, these Muqtada followers later form the backbone of Iraqi resistance to the Americans, at the same time Sadrists slowly start resembling a cult around the image of the Muhammed Sadiq and Muqtada, big clash between the Iraqi government and Sadrists first in 2008, then it turns bloody again in 2022, but doesn't escalate. There were already some rumblings that Sistani's influential son was trying to move certain pieces in order to create an anti-Sadrist camp in 2022, with him reportedly saying that the Sadrists would be considered soon outside the realm of Shiaism. So question remains, does the next Grand Marja exclude Sadrists from the bigger Shia umbrella, or maybe tries to steer them away from the cult and back into normal religion?

I have two or three more points to bring up but my attention span is failing me, so I'll bring them soon in a different comment inshallah 🙏. No proofreading of course, please notify me if something is completely incomprehensible. If you've made this far, congrats!

Back from my self-imposed Hexbear exile, I needed to turn off news (which dramatically failed) and stop reading some of the weird ass tantrums here. Now some unrelated points as usual:

• Situation in Syria is slowly reaching a new chaotic state. Numerous sectarian clashes between HTS and Alawites, and Kurds vs Turkish-backed fighters in the north. The main cities are still calm and in an optimistic mood though, I was in a video call with my cousin on Monday and he filmed some of the markets and main squares in Damascus, it looked pretty calm and people are still in some sort of revolutionary euphoria. Iraq 2003-2007 is still definitely on the cards, sectarian battles and stuff like that will escalate and reach a climax before things settle. The new government from a pure bureaucratic standpoint are doing okay imo though, things are slowly returning to normal and somehow functioning.

• Russian crossing of the Oskol was strangely uneventful, they just crossed from 2-3 points and established a pretty solid bridgehead on the other side of the river. I expected some grand battle when they would inevitably cross the river one day, but it was pretty anticlimactic and Ukrainian troops on the west bank of the river seem to be unprepared and outnumbered even by some Russian troops without heavy equipment. Kurakhove, Velika Novosilka and Toretsk seem to be wrapping up by the end of January, next step is probably Pokrovsk until some bigger Russian movements by summer 2025. The war in the current pace still doesn't reach any final stage until summer 2026.

• Visiting Iraq with the wife and the kid in around a month, you'll get a trip report and some non-doxxing pics if things permit.

• I don't like how things are going in Iran, the country seems to be entering a hard period of decline and they'll be Syria'd by Trump and Israel if they don't get their shit together soon.

• This website has some of the dumbest drama I've ever seen lmao, grow up

Here's what will happen in Lebanon in the next 24 hours or so according to what I'm hearing from resistance sources and family on the ground in Beirut:

• Israel have bombed Beirut for possibly the final time

• Hezbollah will bomb Tel Aviv and Haifa in the next hour or so, as a final middle finger and reminder to the Israeli public

• Israeli forces are already retreating from their furthest advance.

• A ceasefire will be announced tonight or tomorrow

• Hezbollah will not withdraw from the South, this is just on paper so that the Israelis can save face

• Gaza will be addressed very soon as well, the agreement is that the PA takes symbolic control of Gaza, but Hamas remains inofficially

This is a major Israeli defeat, there's no other way to look at this. They failed in disarming Hezbollah, failed in establishing a security zone along the border, failed in crippling Hezbollah's capabilities, failed in reaching the Litani River and the act of war failed to return the settlers to the north, only this ceasefire will make it happen. May Allah have mercy on Sayyid Nasrallah and all the martyrs. One thing hurts though despite my happiness about the fact that we have defeated Israel for the 3rd time after 2000 and 2006, it feels like a small betrayal of Sayyid Nasrallah's words about the complete rejection of any separation between the fronts in Gaza and Lebanon. The genocide in Gaza should've been stopped before we sign anything.

Edit: Israel are bombing Dahiya south of Beirut now, expect a final retribution from Hezbollah soon

With Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah's martyrdom marking a very significant moment in the history of the resistance, I think that it puts a natural stop to my effortpost about the history about the pan-Shia moment. I'm also just too demoralised and sad to continue writing, maybe I'll one day do another one of these in happier times. Thank you all for reading these, I can answer any questions if God gives me strength. I have one favor to ask, can someone please post this in the history or effortpost comms?

Part One

Part Two, it gets continued in the first comment

Part Three, it also gets continued in the first comment

I can't believe it, I just can't swallow this news. Nasrallah is the resistance, he's Hezbollah, he's the man that defeated Israel twice, he's the greatest man that the region produced in the last 50 years, he's the one that you could listen to for hours without being bored. What a loss, what a tragedy.

It's a black day, it's very hard to process. I'm frightened of what comes next.

لبيك يا نصرالله لبيك يا سيد المقاومة

Hey, please read the first two parts of my effortpost on the evolution of the modern pan-shia ideology if you haven't done that already. Part three coming probably tomorrow, but I'm on 5k words in total already and I haven't even mentioned Syria and Bahrain in the last part, so this became a bit larger than expected lmao.

Part One

Part Two, it gets continued in the first comment

you're getting the third and probably final part tomorrow, be patient

Part one effortpost here, I chose number two. Sorry for any grammatical fuckups in advance, it was too long to proof read.

The Rise of the Collective Shia Identity: Part One

The year is 1978. Ayatollah Khomeini, the main voice of Shia Islamism has just been expelled from Najaf by Saddam Hussein. Najaf, the capital of Shia Islam and where the biggest Hawzas (Shia Islamic schools) are located, is a hotspot of political repression, executions, and arrests. The main Marja (basically Shia pope), Sayyid Abu Al Qasim Al Khoei is reduced to a strictly religious role, giving rulings about useless things like marriages and inheritance. His predecessor, Sayyid Muhsin Al Hakim, pushed the political buttons too hard with a ruling that deemed communists and Baathists as disbelievers, which made the Iraqi state go crazy and start a huge campaign of repression of anything political from the Shia elite. Khomeini’s development of the concept of Wilayat Al Faqih was very worrying for Baathist Iraq, so he was expelled from Najaf.

Shias in Iraq never got a place post-Sykes-Picot, with the Kingdom of Iraq being dominated by the Sunni Baghdadi elite. The period between 1958-1968 after the revolution was too chaotic and disjointed to produce an elite, with daily conflicts and coup attempts by adventurers with different ideologies. The Baathist period produced a new elite strictly dominated by Sunnis from Salahaddin Province, so the Shias just never got a seat at the table. Two ideologies penetrated the Shia mind, Islamism and Communism. Islamists were concentrated in Karbala and Najaf, two holy cities for Shia Islam. Communists where concentrated in Nasiriyah, Amarah and Basra, cities where poverty was rampant. Islamists were finally organised in the form of the Dawa Party, led by Musa Al Sadr’s cousin Muhammed Baqir Al Sadr. Musa Al Sadr would later rise as the spiritual leader of the Lebanese Shia community. Muhammed Baqir Al Sadr’s works and political activities really annoyed the Iraqi state, so he and his sister were executed by the state in 1980. Most of their followers were executed or exiled. Many of the influential families in Najaf and Karbala had some Persian ancestry, nearly all those families suffered from mass deportations as Saddam’s anti-Persian paranoia grew. The communists suffered from the same fate, with most communists either executed or exiled by the state due to their political activities.

Now we’re done with Iraq, let’s go to Iran. Shia Islamism is dead here too, the Shah’s security services arrests anyone with any political activity. Khomeini was successfully chased out 20 years ago, and there’s no organised political force that can even talk loudly without getting executed. The Shah is at least Shia Muslim on paper, he prays in public once every 10 years, visits the shrines in Qom and Mashhad occasionally, but to everyone with a functioning brain, this man is a disbeliever. There’s something brewing, but let’s wait with that story.

Let’s go to Lebanon. Shias in Lebanon are around half of the Muslim population. It’s hard to get exact numbers, but Shias are around 25% of the total population of the country. The Shia community here also never got a real seat at the table. The president holds most of the power and is always a Maronite. The prime minister gets fired every few weeks, but he’s always a Sunni and does nothing while the Maronite elite is pretending to be French and robbing the country. The speaker of the parliament is Shia, but toilet paper is more useful than that position. Feudalism didn’t really end in the Shia parts of Lebanon, most Shias were farmers who were getting fucked so hard on a daily basis that they didn’t have time to even think about politics. Remember we’re in 1978, where are the Shias in the middle of civil war? The answer is nowhere. The main sides are Maronites vs Sunni Muslims, communists and Palestinians. Shias were not a major factor here. The only notable Shia organization is the Amal Movement, led by Musa Al Sadr. Musa was a charismatic leader who would set the foundations of the modern Shia Lebanese identity, he was respected by all sectors of the cursed Lebanese society and his connections to Iran and Iraq were slowly starting to be important in a regional context. But nothing good lasts, as he was inexplicably disappeared and presumably killed by Gaddafi during a routine visit to Libya in August 1978.

Let’s go to Yemen and the Gulf. In Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Shias were an afterthought, they are 0% of the ruling families and have zero political representation. They’re allowed to do some rituals at home when no one sees, but if you open your mouth in public and say anything Shia Islamist, you’re getting disappeared and your whole family will probably be deported to Iran or something. Shias in Bahrain are the absolute majority and they’re significant minorities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In Yemen, the Shias are not the same kind of Shia as in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon. The main group of Shia Muslims are either called Jaafari after the theological works of the sixth Shia Imam Jaafar Al Sadiq, or Ithna Ashari (Twelvers) due to their belief in twelve Imams after the Prophet Muhammed, starting with Imam Ali ibn Abi Talib and ending with Imam Muhammed Al Mahdi, also known as the Hidden Imam who according to Shia beliefs will reappear one day and basically set in motion the end of the physical world. The Shia of Yemen are known as Zaydis, after Zayd ibn Jaafar Al Sadiq, who the Zaidis recognized as 7th Imam, while the Twelvers recognized Musa ibn Jaafar Al Sadiq. The Zaidi Imamate in Northern Yemen continued for nearly a thousand years, but it could not withstand the post-WW2 chaos in the region and ended in nearly comic fashion after a coup led by local rivals and involvement from an exiled Iraqi officer. The Zaydi community here in 1978 is in disarray, with many converting to Sunni Islam out of convenience in a new world. There’s no organized Zaydi force or political party, they just farm in the highlands of Northern Yemen and chill out there. It is a fading group, but wait, something just happened in Yemen. Ali Abdullah Saleh, a Zaydi military officer from Sanaa, and one of the great adventurers of the 1900s in the Middle East, just did a military coup and took power in the failing state of North Yemen in July 1978.

How did this defeated religious group go from edges of the region to the dominant group in five countries and a political force that annoys America and Israel? We’ll find out in the next episode as we cover the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the formative value of the Iraq-Iran War, the failed Shaaban Revolution in Iraq, the rise of Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon, and the rise of the Houthi (Ansarallah) movement in Yemen.

What an absolute honor to have my son as the COTW, proud dad here. I'm sure he'll be very happy when I tell him in a few years that he's famous on the Putin-backed bear podcast offshoot forum nerd mega. You're all getting a good old ranking today, in honor of my humiliation yesterday and for the little fella.

Western dipshits give money to the Ukrainian government to finance the war effort -> The Ukrainian government decides to build fortifications similar to the Surovikin line -> They give money and contracts to random private companies that are supposed to build those fortifications -> Capitalism + Ukrainian corruption in action:

These concrete blocks were supposed to form lines of dragon teeth fortifications to stop Russian tanks. But some shitty corrupt company took the money, picked up these blocks, and just dropped them next to the street.

Just got off calls with my family in both Beirut and Damascus. The situation feels extremely tense right now. Our family house in Beirut is quite close to the Hezbollah areas south of Beirut, so the neighborhood will most likely be bombed in case shit escalates. My family in Damascus are maybe relocating to my cousin's farm outside of the city, just waiting to see how everything develops. Very odd feeling in my whole body right now, a mixture of sadness and some weird hope as well. Not liking this "being a part of history" thing tbh.