[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 24 points 1 day ago

JNIM is a merger of several groups including Al Quaeda, emerging out of the Mali conflict which itself was a result of the Libyan civil war in many ways. They don't get along with IS (who have a smaller but significant presence in the region) and fight with them at times. There's no western backing for JNIM and France was directly involved in fighting them until the coups of recent years. They're a frighteningly effective organisation, a proto-state spanning several countries. Reminiscent of ISIS in the early 2010s.

[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 26 points 1 day ago

Not really other than in the sense that this insurgency is a long term result of the chaos in Libya and subsequently Mali. AFRICOM doesn't really benefit from JNIM seizing control of a large swathe of the Sahel, neither do France's remaining satellites in West Africa. The fact is that JNIM is a politically intelligent and effective organisation that does a lot to ingratiate itself with local people. They have established social programs in the regions they hold. After decades of rural people being ignored and actively impoverished by the central govts, this is a powerful point of attraction, and Traore's attempts to reverse this trend are coming too late and too little (Mali and Niger's juntas aren't doing much at all).

I think that what would more likely happen is that the US gets directly involved in fighting the insurgencies alongside the AES, which have been more open to US co-operation than most realise (the anti-imperialist sentiment there is more anti-French specifically, finding the outright racism and outdated attitudes of the French harder to deal with). In a year or two I could see the insurgencies toppling a government and that precipitating a deal where the US supplies direct assistance in exchange for some concessions, maybe getting the Russians out of the region, maybe economic concessions. That's just my own view ofc.

[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 13 points 1 day ago

the mainstream US "political parties" aren't really political parties in any way that most of the rest of the world would recognise tbh. more like caucuses of one party.

[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 18 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

The British libs go really feral about anyone not supporting Ukraine sufficiently for their liking. It's like a crime in their eyes to even suggest that we shouldn't "help Ukraine defend itself" by sending them offensive weaponry capable of hitting Vladivostok. However the jingoism and opinion-policing around Ukraine has lessened dramatically amongst socialists since the heady days of 2022/23 and since the genocide in Palestine has made it very obvious that few who claim to care about "Russia killing civilians" actually give a fuck about that. I think it'll be hard to make any smears like that stick at this point.

[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 52 points 1 day ago

Situation continues to worsen in Burkina Faso https://x.com/WerbCharlie/status/1949527898387620017

🇧🇫|#BurkinaFaso: JNIM fighters seemingly entered the centre of Pibaoré earlier today, with footage showing them posing with and desecrating an AES roundabout. These new landmarks are inadvertently becoming a way for the group to show it has successfully overran an urban area.

[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 31 points 2 days ago

it's ridiculously easy to bypass. I don't know what they were hoping to achieve with this implementation. it's not like they couldn't have done it so that you'd actually need ID rather than just a photo of someone who the computer thinks looks old enough. then again, this is the government that wanted to "ban encryption" a few years ago so I'm not surprised they're this incompetent.

[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 61 points 2 days ago

prediction: they're going to blame minorities

[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 15 points 2 days ago

Seems likely they struck first, and Cambodia has been calling for a ceasefire since this morning while Thailand presses on with the fighting. Also Thailand is much more of a western ally in the region compared to Cambodia. And it's a soft military dictatorship. It's not exactly a clear-cut situation tho but I'm willing to say that Thailand is the aggressor and should chill out.

[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 28 points 3 days ago
[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 36 points 3 days ago

Why would they need to break Egypt up when it's already a US client state complicit in genocide? Egypt is likely backing the Abu Shabab gang to some degree.

[-] revolut1917@hexbear.net 45 points 3 days ago

this is fucking unbelievable, WSJ is beyond the point of becoming a prominent target for resistance within the US.

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revolut1917

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