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this post was submitted on 07 Apr 2025
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I feel that number has to be telling less than the full story using some clever calculation. I get they have a policy of domestic consumption but you can only do so much of that. More than that I think the GDP number you cite doesn't really reveal how many jobs would be lost which is an actual problem. You can't just take a hit of your sales halving to a big market like the US and keep all the factories open, some are just going to close entirely and others will eliminate shifts. Because that's what we'll see if 50% tariff rates stick or even worse get up to 80% or higher from Trump retaliating on China's retaliation.
China can probably take if far better than the US but I have to wonder if the US even cares. If at this point we're not at a take the toys and build a high fence around the yard and go home and this is less about hurting China as opposed to autarky at home and setting that up and attempting to transition from capitalism to some sort of barbarism with the belief that robotics and AI will make enough proles redundant that the bourgeoisie or a group of them can just rule as aristocracy over the result. It won't work in the long-run but they'll kill an awful large amount of us before they ever realize that. And that worries me more than China surviving the US attempting to beat on it economically using this.
You're missing one very crucial part of this equation: BRICS. China has been spending the last 20 years cultivating these relationships.
BRICS is currently a more powerful, more influential, and more wealthy trading bloc than the G7. IIRC BRICS is about 35% of global GDP, and G7 is 25%.
If the US stops buying Chinese products they can simply sell them somewhere else.
They can definitely sell them elsewhere, and if companies threaten to abandon ship, while I am just hypothesizing here, China likely has a legal way to seize the factories to prevent the loss of productive capacity.