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this post was submitted on 01 May 2025
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Having lived through the collapse of USSR, I can tell you that these things happen very suddenly. One day everything seems normal, and the next you're fighting for bread so you have something to eat for the next week. Once an inflection point is reached, the unravelling happens at an incredible pace from there on out. Maybe the US isn't quite there yet, but a lot of indicators are certainly pointing that a breaking point is indeed approaching.
That's not the only model, though, slow decline is a possibility (and it seems like that's China's preferred path). As far as looking to the market for indicators goes, there are some signs that the US is weakening but the broader macro trends suggest that the big money's betting on the US to continue. Big money can be wrong; Trump could totally torpedo the US economy on his own and it doesn't seem like anyone wants to stop him, but if that's the case we won't see it coming.
China might prefer a managed decline, but it's dealing with a US political class too incompetent to even attempt one. Do you honestly believe clowns like Lutnick or Bessent, who barely grasp the crisis unfolding around them, have the slightest clue how to fix it? Wall Street is often wrong, if you're banking on their confidence then buckle up for disappointment.
I get why denial runs deep. If your whole life, crises were 'solved' and things limped back to 'normal,' it’s easy to assume the system's resilient. But each 'recovery' has been a wealth transfer to the top, leaving workers with thinner margins and less capacity to survive the next shock. Today we see record debt delinquencies, credit cards funding groceries and rent, a populace already financially underwater.
Tariffs will act as a catalyst spiking prices, crushing consumption, and triggering further business collapses. The resulting resulting job losses will accelerate the downward spiral. This is a classic crisis of capitalism.