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this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2023
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chapotraphouse
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I still think Biden has a very good chance to win, but the indictment is adding an extra layer of uncertainty into this election.
What will your average “moderate” Republican see the indictment? I don’t think they’ll see it as “yeah Trump deserved it, we need a better candidate” even though they agree with that sentiment, more importantly they’ll see it as “Democrats are trying to cheat their way out of the election” as their persecution complex kicks into high gear.
It’ll reinforce the “if the Democrats can do this to Trump, then they will do this to any conservative that comes after Trump” sentiment.
So now you could have the Republicans coming out in droves to vote for Trump, not because they like Trump, but because they see it as a way to stick it to the Democrats. The Trump indictment is thus seen as an assault to American conservatism - a very real life and death situation for them.
Biden's chances seem strong right now, but what about a year from now? Inflation is rising for basic goods. Look at the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves, they're have plummeted to the lowest level since the 80s and that's barely keeping things humming. US moderates don't vote on policy, they vote based on the price of gas.
The funny thing is, Trump is probably the only guy who can lose to Biden. If the Republicans put basically anyone else forward, Democrats would lose steam and moderates would feel okay voting Republican again. It's a strange scenario this upcoming election, at this point seems impossible to predict.