Biden's chances seem strong right now, but what about a year from now? Inflation is rising for basic goods. Look at the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves, they're have plummeted to the lowest level since the 80s and that's barely keeping things humming. US moderates don't vote on policy, they vote based on the price of gas.

The funny thing is, Trump is probably the only guy who can lose to Biden. If the Republicans put basically anyone else forward, Democrats would lose steam and moderates would feel okay voting Republican again. It's a strange scenario this upcoming election, at this point seems impossible to predict.