I still think Biden has a very good chance to win, but the indictment is adding an extra layer of uncertainty into this election.

What will your average “moderate” Republican see the indictment? I don’t think they’ll see it as “yeah Trump deserved it, we need a better candidate” even though they agree with that sentiment, more importantly they’ll see it as “Democrats are trying to cheat their way out of the election” as their persecution complex kicks into high gear.

It’ll reinforce the “if the Democrats can do this to Trump, then they will do this to any conservative that comes after Trump” sentiment.

So now you could have the Republicans coming out in droves to vote for Trump, not because they like Trump, but because they see it as a way to stick it to the Democrats. The Trump indictment is thus seen as an assault to American conservatism - a very real life and death situation for them.

Increasingly more likely

It’s gonna be a problem. Democrats depend on young people to turn out and vote. When a Democrat has been in office 4 years and every young person’s life sucks it leads to less turnout.