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the funniest timeline would be if the US stops helping the 51st state Israel because Trump actually believes the antisemitic lies of the "tail wagging the dog".
Okay so definitely that idea is antisemitic nonsense but if you don’t consider incompetence I understand why it looks that way to people.
From my perspective, US involvement in Israel is not in the US’s best interests. Frankly I think it’s obvious, Israel’s genocide has caused intense domestic strife, pissed off tons of our allies, increased the cost of shipping goods, and is constantly threatening to spiral even more out of control in ways that could cause the fall of the US empire. And for what? An unsinkable aircraft carrier isn’t much good if you collapse your country to build it and it’s sinking the whole time anyway.
So if you come in from that perspective, and then you see the way the US acts towards Israel despite the costs, there are two conclusions to come to, the incorrect one of “Israel (or just The Jews) controls the US government” or the correct one “US leaders are really stupid and genuinely think supporting Israel is good for the United States interests and do not recognize the dangers.” If you’re not accounting for people in power making bad choices that don’t give them their desired outcome, the only other option is “the tail wags the dog”
This goes double if the person thinking about this doesn’t understand how military aid works and that it’s also domestic spending and a way of handing money to Lockheed and Raytheon, or the nebulous “benefits” of imperialism. Easy to think “Israel is dragging us into this mess and we’ve given them hundreds of billions of dollars for nothing in return”
Combine this with the fact that they're deporting Palestinian protest leaders and writing "Shalom, Mahmoud" on the official White House post, (referring to Mahmoud Khalil) and constantly insisting that Israel means All Jews Always. There's going to be people who are like "Well I hate this genocide and the way my government is funding it, I guess I do hate the jews."
If they keep this shit up pogroms are going to make a comeback, which of course is good for Israel too, since it forces jews to run there and become settlers.
Stopping the aid and having Israel collapse in like a week would be a lot better for everyone, so I hope Trump is dumb enough to go for it.
It’s not so much just that the US leaders are idiots (they are), it’s that many of them will prioritize their own personal enrichment from ~~bribery~~ lobbying from AIPAC. That’s the reason so many of them will continue to support Israel.
Also when you basically need to be rich or useful to the rich to afford to run for congress going against AIPAC is pretty much a death sentence for your campaign. That also filters out potential dissent.
Goes to show that capitalism will always eventually run into problems since it will prioritize short term profits over everything.
I think you overestimate how much money AIPAC contributes. Most of their contributions are in like, the thousands of dollars not tens or hundreds of thousands. I think you’re correct that they fear backlash from AIPAC, but I think they’re wrong about how dangerous that backlash actually is.
It's the largest single lobby in US politics, largely for imperialist reasons, and it overlaps with many other powerful lobbies. Since 9/11, the oil industry amd the weapons industry and the fundamentalists have all coalesced around American-Israeli relations as a salient.
There's a bunch of very good reasons why it's extremely rare for anyone in the last 50 years to have made it into state or national office on an explicitly pro-Palestine platform.