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this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2025
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Looking more into it, it seems this might just be the short term agreement until they hammer out a final deal? Hard to see how they get Trump to cave and lower that 55% substantially once they start delivering rare earths again and the US builds up a stockpile.
I think it is interesting to think about how this would fuck the consumer market but it might still be just low enough maybe that industrial inputs for US manufacturing can take the hit and pass the cost on to their end-customers which means it doesn't destroy US industry in the way the 100% tariffs do. Though it kind of seems like a negotiating with an asshole tactic where they won't drop unilaterally so you just basically wager away most of your own tariffs and ask them for an exact subtraction of same and they agree to that as "fair".
I guess we'll have to see how it shakes out and if there is a revolt in the US over it that forces Trump's hand. If it works it works, if it doesn't it looks bad for China to do this but I feel they're going to say it was done in good faith. Perhaps if Trump isn't willing to swallow his pride then they claim they couldn't reach a deal and portray themselves as the more reasonable party by virtue of accepting things like this. So maybe my first impression wasn't quite right. We'll see.
Yeah also seems there are limits and the licenses are valid for a period of 6 months with possible volume control.