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this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2025
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It's a given that in a prolonged war war production will be constantly increasing, but being forced to produce everything underground, in secure facilites, and to move many factories from where they were would seriously hamper that growth. It's not that bombing campaigns were ineffective it's just that production increased exponentially. So while bombings did decrease it the actual production numbers still went up overall. Of course the Nazi's made many other mistakes too, but the allies, and USSR wouldn't have continued their bombing campaigns, which are very expensive for them, if they were not seeing significant success. It's just that the numbers are weirdly presented. Think like this: Year 1, 100 factories, they build 50, 10 get bombed. Now they have 140. Year 2 140 factories, they build 50, 15 get bombed, Now they have 175.
It looks like their production increased by almost double. Which could make you think bombing campaigns were ineffective. But without those bombing campaigns they'd be at 200.
I get what you are saying, but there is a huge flaw in your logic here. You are treating military ventures, particularly WWII military ventures, as if they have a quality assurance team with statistically controlled practices and a feedback mechanism that allows them to make adjustments and understand what they are doing, or why it is effective or ineffective, or if it the effect justifies the costs. They did not, and to some degree, still don't.
The U.S. still hadn't even figured out by WWII that it is a really good idea to have troops stationed behind the front lines when pushing on an offensive in order to regroup scattered soldiers, which left multiple divisions scattered on offensive thrusts and lead to the infamous moments like what was portrayed in "A Bridge Too Far" or in the Hurtgen Forest, a mistake that they literally repeated from WWI in the Aragonne Forest. In that vein, they did multiple troop air drops, which which have repeatedly and soundly been shown to be ineffective at best, and completely wipe out a combat unit at worst, despite what Hollywood and video games would have you believe, because of what military planners thought, which was mostly that it seemed bad ass.
The bombings absolutely caused chaos in Germany and took their toll on the population, but their actual effect on German industrial production was relatively limited in hindsight, especially when compared to the bombing campaigns in things like the Second Gulf War. It is unclear if it could have been considered an effective campaign from that measure. But generals love their planes and destroying civilian infrastructure, and bombers and jets are admittedly pretty cool to look at and watch fly.