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submitted 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


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Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

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English-language twitter account that collates news.
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Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 85 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)
The Cradle: Pakistan breaks ranks, backs Iran in war with Israel

There's a lot in this article, so to summarize, it looks like Pakistan is rapidly aligning with Iran in a kinda informal way. Both the political class and the population generally support an alignment with Iran, which is surprising because earlier this year, Iran and Pakistan had done a little tit-for-tat, striking targets (extremist groups) within each other's countries. It seems like that exchange, amazingly, left them both fairly satisfied and happy with each other - or perhaps Pakistan's exchange with India earlier made them realize that they do need allies, and Iran can be counted on.

While Islamabad has offered no formal commitment of military aid to Tehran, Iranian media and parliament are now rallying around Pakistan with chants of “Pakistan Zindabad.”

Now, this part is insane:

Speaking to The Cradle, Abdullah Khan of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reveals that Israeli drone operators had recently attempted to sabotage Pakistan's nuclear facilities during the India–Pakistan crisis:

“Israeli drone operators were stationed in Indian operation rooms during the recent Pakistan–India conflict, trying to target Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. However, prompt action from Pakistan thwarted their efforts, preventing them from causing any damage to the nuclear assets of Pakistan.”

Death cult, indeed.

Anyway, I was initially skeptical of claims that Pakistan would nuke Israel if Israel nuked Iran, and I'm still a little skeptical that this would actually happen (as presumably, Pakistan would also get nuked by Israel in return, and then that just creates a whole shitload of issues to put it mildly), but a senior Iranian general basically confirmed that this was true, and I can't imagine that's a thing you just throw out there unless there's some rock-solid support or guarantee. Even Russia hesitated for a bit in giving Belarus access to Russia's nuclear umbrella (I believe waiting until Finland was de jure in NATO, though my timeline might be a little skewed), and Lukashenko has been unquestionably Putin's ally this entire time.

Also, I like this response by a Pakistani official to Iran's version of Guaido:

“If Iranian people are energized and motivated, according to you, show some balls and go back and lead them and remove the regime. Put your money where your arse is, bloody parasitical imperial whore.”

Naturally, this has all put Pakistan under pressure:

“The Pakistani security elite perceive that the US and its counter-proliferation regime are imposing penalties on Pakistan, although it was India that brought the nuclear issue to South Asia. “There exists a structural perception in Rawalpindi that the US, along with its allies India and Israel, is targeting Pakistan's nuclear program. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain how Pakistan will handle the situation. Certainly, increased investment in air defense systems, enhanced domestic intelligence capabilities, and strengthening the air force with next-generation J-35 stealth fighters are all essential to take on any possible Israeli actions."

Now, as noted previously in this thread, Munir has been summoned to the US - so either Pakistan will back down, or they'll flip the US the bird.

In a move that exposes Washington’s alarm, Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was quietly summoned to the US Central Command headquarters in Florida. His absence from a key national parade in Islamabad has raised questions at home. While the Pakistani embassy remains tight-lipped, Dawn cited sources anticipating “uncomfortable conversations” in Washington. Whether Munir's US visit results in a recalibration or further consolidation of Islamabad's alignment with Tehran and Beijing remains uncertain. But one thing is clear: Pakistan is no longer sitting on the fence.

[-] BeamBrain@hexbear.net 38 points 1 day ago

C'mon Pakistan, you have over 100 nukes, you can spot Iran a few

[-] Cimbazarov@hexbear.net 28 points 1 day ago

I did feel Iran was doomed since the entire west is going to back Israel, and perhaps even get involved directly. But if Pakistan comes to Iran's help, that would definitely change things.

I guess Pakistan realizes the value of Iran as an ally when they too are facing an enemy in India. I actually dont know and am just speculating. I was always under the impression that the current pakistan was obedient to the US

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 34 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Pakistan at this point is way to deep into China's sphere of influence for US bribes and cia ops to move mountains. Like yeah the US played a role in khans arrest and overthrow but the following military junta still almost immediately and to this day did not take a single step away from China. On the contrary it deepened intergration and dependency radically. China is simply to big and too important for pakistan geopoliticaly, military and economicaly for them to be "on the poket of the cia" . Their entire state, economy and military deterents would collapse without continuously deepening relations with China through ways the US can simply can not or would not (due to india) provide. Cia ops , bribes etc are fine and all but 1. China can do them as well, especially in their backyard and 1. They end up secondary to the sheer economic and geopolitical impact China can throw around and offer Pakistan. The US can try to put compradors in place but ironically these compradors would end up moving the country closer to china regardless due to the actual reality and politics of having to run that country and keep their regional positioning.

[-] Wertheimer@hexbear.net 26 points 1 day ago

The China-Pakistan Friendship Highway was already an Eighth Wonder of the World but it may just save the world bloomer

[-] Cimbazarov@hexbear.net 19 points 1 day ago

Material conditions always prevail marx

Yea, reading the article above I also wonder how much involvement Israel had in the skirmish between Pakistan and India. Pakistan surely sees them as a threat and they must be doing the mental calculus of what would happen to them if Iran were to fall

[-] companero@hexbear.net 26 points 1 day ago

It's a little sus that Munir went to both the White House and CENTCOM HQ. I hope he makes the right decision.

Trump did say after their meeting that Pakistan "[is] not happy about anything": https://xcancel.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1935580746527440976#m

[-] Huitzilopochtli@hexbear.net 30 points 1 day ago

I think a key thing to understand here is that while Pakistan is historically often in the US pocket, it still has its own interests and those are more existential than anything the US can offer/threaten. The fact that the US and Israel have been aggressively cozying up with India creates a fundamental contradiction for Pakistan that can't hold. The specifics of how it plays out this time are somewhat up in the air IMO, but there is a reckoning imminent regardless.

[-] Le_Wokisme@hexbear.net 16 points 1 day ago

the last 10-15 years or so has been kinda up and down. i thought the US couped imran khan but maybe the ukraine shit wasn't the primary reason if current pakistan is taking the correct position again.

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 20 points 1 day ago

They played a role in couping Khan but the military stooges put in place still moved the country closer to China than ever before. No matter how far cia ops and bribes go in Pakistan the sheer size and dependency and need for China in almost every way still wins out so Pakistan can and does act against US interests

[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 15 points 1 day ago

At the end of the day, Pakistan's military is completely reliant on China with 82% of imported weapons coming from China, so China has massive amounts of leverage. Any military action taken by Pakistan is a military action taken by China. That's the bottom line.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 22 points 1 day ago

During the 1982 Israel-Lebanon War, irregular Pakistani volunteers served in the PLO and 50 were taken prisoner during the Siege of Beirut.

The relationship between Pakistan and Israel continued to be ridden with hostilities following these direct engagements, and when Mossad was unable to stop Pakistan's nuclear weapons program from making major developments, a plan to bomb Pakistani nuclear facilities in a similar fashion to Operation Opera was authorized.

Israel subsequently made contact with India in an effort to gain support and secure a launching point for Israel's aircraft. However, India refused to allow Israeli aircraft to station on its soil, whereas Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency had discovered the plan and prepared suicidal one-way retaliatory measures to bomb strategic sites in Israel.

In the 1980s, Israel was said to have planned, with or without Indian assistance, a possible attack on Pakistan's nuclear facilities that would be reminiscent of the Israeli attack previously carried out on an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981. Using satellite imagery and intelligence information, Israel reportedly built a full-scale mock-up of the Kahuta nuclear facility in the Negev desert region where Israeli pilots in F-16 and F-15 squadrons practiced mock attacks.

[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 17 points 1 day ago

Damn, looks like China really is going to militarily help Iran.

this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
196 points (100.0% liked)

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