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I feel so relieved!
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this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2025
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Do people actually think the middle east conflict will start ww3?
Israel is currently attacking Iranian Oil and Gas.
Iran could retaliate by closing the Persian Gulf, where 20% of global Oil and Gas shipping goes through and to weaken US, UK and other support for Israel. This could bring these countries onto the plan, but also Israels allies UAE and Saudi Arabia. When more countries join against Iran, China could feel threatened, or see an opportunity in the distraction, Russia will certainly ramp up its efforts in Ukraine. The economic fallout of the explosion in oil and gas prices globally could tip over other conflicts into wars.
This can definitely spiral into another world war. Remember that WW1 was caused by serbian seperatists assasinating the austrio-hungarian crown prince.
Iran can draw more aggro if they want but theyre getting pretty fucked as is and probably dont want anymore countries pilling on.
China doesnt care about iran and theyre winning by not being involved while the other super powers get bogged down in war and internal conflict.
Russia doesnt have anything left to increase vs Ukraine unless it goes nuclear.
WW1 was started because both Austria-hungry and Germany (partly) wanted a war. The assassination was the excuse and not the reason.
WW2 started as a series of separate, regional conflicts that gradually pushed the world to a major war. Japan in China, Italy in Africa, Germany in Central and Eastern Europe.
The world didn't just wake up on Sept 1st 1939 and say: I guess we at war now. These things always start this way and spiral out of control.
Even the world's first global conflict, the War of Spanish Succession started with French and Austria fighting over the crown of Spain but various other European powers were dragged in as various regional conflicts coalesced into a major war.
Well, there is Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, Sudan, Libya, USA-Canada/Greenland/Mexico...
Could easily be the start of it. If the US civil wars with the orangutan and his ilk, and China starts to fuck with Russia because Xi recognises Putin as a paper tiger dumbass (though China's army is also paper tigery, so...) or just escalates their fighting with India...
Then... That'd be most of the world involved in war.
Please be respectful of orangutans.
China has absolutely no reason to invade the pile of self-extracting resources that currently can only sell to them.
I imagine Xi would if he thought he could take over Russia. It should be obvious China does not respect other nations' boundaries or sovreignty. If Russia shows it's that much weaker than China after the Ukraine BS, I would not put it past Xi.
Even if they could, they wouldn't get the resources as cheaply as theyre getting them now. Also China has recall elections, if Xi went mad and unilaterally decided to go to war with a country so important to Chinas economy, he'd be booted so fast.
Ehhhh, you're only describing the other side of the calculation that we both know Xi is making. The moment that calculation shows invading Russia/India would maybe work, he'd probably go for it.
If the US removed itself from the global stage, I'd suspect Xi would focus more on the Pacific and Thaiwan, but if the calculations show he could own Russia/India too? Yeeaaaaa he's not passing that up.
Also, we all should know how China's votes go after Hong Kong... China is a dictatorship that calls itself communist. Nothing more.
there's a low likelyhood.
The key question is what will happen to Israel in the future?
In my opinion, Israel cannot stay in the middle east for much longer. They have to move out.
Israel is so universally hated in the middle east, it's difficult to put into words. (at least that's what i got from other people's messages). it's difficult/impossible to conceive a long-term stability in the region with Israel in it. and israel knows this, of course.
The question is: what will israel do? Will it escalate the conflict to try to grasp to power through military dominance in the area? Or will it soften its grip and let go of control in the middle east?
There's a genocide like in ww2, but it doesn't threaten capital so every state supports it.
What are you getting at? Ww2 wasn't started over a genocide.