157

Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] duderium@hexbear.net 60 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

(Could be a false alarm but) Telegram channels I’m following announced five minutes ago that Tehran, Shiraz, and Hamadan just activated their air defenses. The entity can’t help bombing brown folks, even when it would clearly help them a great deal to take a break for at least a day or two.

The game theory academic who became famous on youtube a day or two ago is predicting that the USA is going to do a (suicidal) ground invasion of Iran. I can also hear Justin Podur saying that all this shit with Trump getting angry at Netanyahu is just for show.

[-] Rey_McSriff@hexbear.net 48 points 13 hours ago

all this shit with Trump getting angry at Netanyahu is just for show

It is. Remember all those headlines during the Biden regime that went something like "Behind Closed Doors, Biden Fumes at Netanyahu"? It's the exact same shit, it's all theatrics to cover up the fact that the US always has and always will call the shots with regards to Israel

[-] cricbuzz@hexbear.net 29 points 13 hours ago

"Biden said [comes closer to you and speaks very quietly] ~fuck~ Netanyahu"

[-] SchillMenaker@hexbear.net 24 points 12 hours ago
[-] robot_dog_with_gun@hexbear.net 10 points 11 hours ago

the meta device that season was so good

[-] Ram_The_Manparts@hexbear.net 10 points 12 hours ago

Biden and Trump aren't the same person.

[-] supafuzz@hexbear.net 40 points 13 hours ago

time to close the strait guys ffs

[-] duderium@hexbear.net 43 points 13 hours ago

Maybe they’re hesitating because this is seemingly one of the last cards they have to play…?

The game theory guy said that Iran also wants the USA to do a ground invasion, since it would be a catastrophe for the USA. And I’m like…it would be a catastrophe for Iran too…

I’m wishing at the moment that their missiles would blow some holes in the walls around Gaza so my friends could get something to eat.

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 36 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

the game theory guy is a crank who believe JDPON Don is an accelerationist trying to destroy the American empire. "game theory" is idealist nonsense

[-] Tomorrow_Farewell@hexbear.net 33 points 13 hours ago

"game theory" is idealist nonsense

Yeah, nah. This is a case of misunderstanding both idealism and game theory.
Also, on that note, I recall that somebody erroneously claimed that game theory requires the assumption that the sides act 'rationally'. I urge fellow hexbears to actually investigate game theory instead of uncritically believing such assumptions.

On the other hand, game theory is a branch of math, not any sort of social science. Although it does find applications in the latter, it doesn't actually grant one expertise on topics like what different polities are (likely) going to do - at least, not if one doesn't have access to relevant intelligence on both sides.

[-] Sebrof@hexbear.net 24 points 12 hours ago

Yeah I wasn't put off by the guy doing "game theory", it's another tool or approach. But the problem is his game theory analysis is not based off historical materialism. His idealism shows through and polluted any analysis and made it cheap. Thinking that Israel is independent of the US and that it will be the US's military competitor in the region shows that no amount of game theory will correct for idealistic world views.

Your comment reminds me of my own rant I have had in the past. It's like when Marxists economists disparage math because neoclassicalists use it. Math isn't the problem, its the base assumptions that bourgeoisie economists have. I'm not even saying that a Marxist analysis requires the same math that neoclassical economists use, but there's a tendnecy, hopefully minor, to throw the baby out with the bathwater because bourgeoisie academics use math. I havent seen that here in Hexbear, but I have come across it in person.

Understanding the material world and our social relations in a scientific manner will require some math, and some analytical tools. It wont be reduced to math, but math is an indispensable tool in understanding material reality. There is a group of Marxist economists, or at least followers that I have spoken to, that are almost like the econ version of Ultras in that they think any math is some bourgeois perversion and wish to stay in the realm of purely qualitative descriptions. This has gotten a little off topic as this complaint is focused in the "economy" side of political economy analysis

[-] tripartitegraph@hexbear.net 4 points 9 hours ago

I think there's definitely people in the online left (marxist or otherwise) who go too far in clowning on the academics and academic study. I had someone argue with me, right here on this site, that mathematicians should stop wasting time with the meaningless abstract stuff (like voting systems or game theory) and focus on solving real problems.

[-] Sebrof@hexbear.net 3 points 9 hours ago

I'm not surprised.

I get criticism of academics because of its anti-communism. But not criticism of abatractions and research.

But unfortunately most research is wasted because it lacks Marxist insight. And worse, some are attempts at explanations avoiding any insight into dialectical materialism and hence is an attempt at mystification whether the researchers are conscious of that or not. And math is just another tool of these researchers. But I have seen Marxist focus in on criticism of math.

For the situations I am familiar with, such criticisms say that the math both mystifies and gives legitimacy to work to anti-revolutuonary research. Think of political scientists using statistics. The statistics gives the most whack idealist nonsense you find in a political science paper an aura of truth. And I do agree that math serves as a "mask" for bad ideas. But the solution isn't to do away with math because math isn't the cause of this problem. Anti-communism is. Statistics in political science isn't the issue, its the anti-communism of the field itself.

And for an example like voting models, sure studying voting models without an understanding of class power is a huge theoretical mistake. I'd imagine there is a risk of getting people wasting time on finding the perfect bourgeoisie system where we can vote in socialism.

But studying social structures, and how they are or could be organized (including studying voting models) within the context of a class where its material interests ard dentified as well its relations with other classes, groups, etc., is worthwhile I believe. That is using analytics tools to approach a study of the inter-relations (i.e. inner contradictions) of an organization through a Marxist lens.

If such research better informs the Proletariat in our struggle, then it is a proper Marxist science! But it still involves these abatractions

[-] Tomorrow_Farewell@hexbear.net 12 points 12 hours ago

Your comment reminds me of my own rant I have had in the past. It's like when Marxists economists disparage math because neoclassicalists use it. Math isn't the problem, its the base assumptions that bourgeoisie economists have.

On a somewhat similar note, I would actually like to point out one thing:

His idealism shows through and polluted any analysis and made it cheap. Thinking that Israel is independent of the US and that it will be the US's military competitor in the region shows that no amount of game theory will correct for idealistic world views.

People like to reach for idealism bashing, but believing that Pissrael is an actor that is independent from the US doesn't have anything to do with idealism. Subscribing to a framework that, for example, postulates that numbers exist and are not dependent on matter would be both idealist and not have any contradictions with relevant economical-political conclusions that anybody here would make.

[-] Sebrof@hexbear.net 5 points 10 hours ago

I see what you mean about believing that Israel is independent is not idealism in itself, but calling idealist is shorthand for the fact that such a view, at least the extreme version of Israel having some complete sovereignty from the US empire, entity doesn't seem to correspond with a meaningful analysis rooted in imperialism and how the US supports and props up Israel. Israel does have some degree of "independence" in that they are there own actors, but I'd say based off the US propping up Israel for its purposes, that the game theorist YouTube is making a severe error. And he isn't rooting his analysis in historical materialism, i.e. in an analysis of imperialism, capital accumulation, class power, and value flows. For him, Israel is a nation state hence it is on some independent footing as any other nation state. That is some form of idealism to me. Almost like a mystification of Israel as some independent entity because it is a nation state, instead of focusing on the interrelationships between Israel and the US, and how Israel is both a nation state and an extension of US empire. An analysis starting from material facts on the ground will lead to that vs one that treats Isreal as independent from the start.

But, I may be wrong about the details of this hill I'm standing on. So I won't die on it, but I think its a hill that's close to something worthwhile.

Also, an aside on the aside about math. I don't think math can escape materialism. I think most math people disagree with me on this, Platonism appears very common with mathematician. Even if the abstractions are "ideals" and dont exist in a one-to-one way, I dont see this as invalidating dialectical materialism. Ideas in math are abatractions that, like all abstractions, have their roots in the material world and its historical trajectoey. Every abstractions of ours come from this material world, but this isnt some crude materialist view that says that every abstractions has a direct one-to-one material version of it. But I dont believe even math is some pure idealism, even if it is analysis of abstract, ideal, structures.

But some abstractions are definitely harder to pin down to something real. Utility for example. Maybe it could be a proxy, like fitness in evolutionary systems, for something else more material or having a feedback relationship with something in the material world.

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 21 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

Game theory is based on rationalization (in the philosophical sense, opposed to empiricism), ie it is by definition purely idealist. You even confirm this by stating it's a type of math - a purely abstract, idealist and rational system - as opposed to a concrete, materialist and empiricist system. Bourgeois economics is also a "type of math". As is bourgeois finance. This doesn't make them accurate systems at predicting and describing the world - they are still idealist and muddy your ability to understand the situation instead of clarifying it.

Someone using the "game theory guy" who is a total crank as some sort of authority or source is as laughable as if they used Milton Friedman. Oh he happened to predict Iran and Israel would get in a war? Who could have possibly predicted that?!?!

[-] Tomorrow_Farewell@hexbear.net 17 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

Game theory is based on rationalization (in the philosophical sense, opposed to empiricism), ie it is by definition purely idealist

All math is. And it produces a lot of non-trivial insight that has led to, among other things, things like the device you sent that message from.
Furthermore, despite what a lot of people think for no good reason, idealism is not a belief in magic (and the definitions one can find in works of socialist thinkers - where idealist schools of thought are characterised by a supposed belief that mental stuff magically influences material stuff - excludes things like Platonic idealism and common instances of religious idealism), and there don't seem to be any serious contradictions between it and Marxist schools of thought (or, at least, nobody seems to be able to point to any such contradictions).

You even confirm this by stating it's a type of math - a purely abstract, idealist and rational system - as opposed to a concrete, materialist and empiricist system

Going to also note that empirical studies rely heavily on math (which, by the way, is not any less 'concrete' - hell, empirical studies deal with a lot worse precision and accuracy; also, saying that it is 'abstract' is meaningless - what does it supposedly 'abstract' when the field just studies the objects that it talks about and not their models?).

[-] TreadOnMe@hexbear.net 10 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

Tldr: skip to the fourth paragraph about Marxism if you do not want to listen to me painstakingly parse through what exactly engineering is.

Most of the insights related to the creation of electronics, or any engineering applications, are generally statistical in nature, rarely deriving purely from mathematics. Some things are mathematically related (acceleration is the derivative of velocity with respect to time) but even then most engineering (not all though) up until the advent of the electronic computer was based in mathematical approximations, compared against rigorous statistical analysis which is then used to create general formulas or find constants that improve those mathematical approximations. However, much of the fine detail engineering, as even engineers will attest, has no real basis in mathematics as the math is far too complex and is purely based off of experience and feel which is then verified by statistical data analytics that tell you if you hit your CTQs (Critical to Quality metrics).

In this way, engineering is quite literally a materialist dialectic, with the empirical metrics needed being the major driving factor of design. And it is more concrete in that it deals with the very literal objects that are being produced, even if it can be more imprecise.

That being said, it can often be at odds with the idealistic dialectic that is finance, as finance dictates that profit and/or growth, which are ultimately abstract measures of 'organizational financial health' (which can be compared to other more social democratic ideas such as 'total societal financial health', where the ball bearing company doesn't necessarily need to be profitable as long as all the other industries that use the ball bearings profits exceed the losses of the ball bearing company, which is why the state subsidizes it) be the fundamental driving force behind product design. These can also work in tandem, depending on if hitting those CTQs is also profitable for the company. You could also argue this is just rhetorical slight-of-hand, with profit and growth being a CTQ in of itself (though I think that is stretching it).

My point is that Marxism is not vulgar materialism, it is about how concepts like the Platonic ideal of a chair become the concrete reality of a chair, and how our experience of that chair then goes on to influence our Platonic ideal of a chair, ad infinitum until our ideal chair looks nothing like the ideal chair of 100 years ago, because it is based primarily in our actual experience of the chair that came before, even though our ideal chair does exist, which is against Hegelian idealist dialectics that says that there is only one platonic ideal chair, and we are constantly seeking to build that one platonic ideal chair, and when we eventually find it no one will build any other kind of chair because everyone who sits in it will instantly know that it is the perfect chair. And if you think I am exaggerating, I am not, Hegel has lengthy passages on aesthetics and how, conveniently, the culture of his time period is the ideal one.

There is a major epistemological difference.

[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 8 points 11 hours ago

Physicists: Nooooo, electrons don't travel along a circuit in a smooth continuous loop. Their average velocity with respect to the path of the circuit is not c noooooo

Engineers: Haha, billiard balls go zooom

[-] TreadOnMe@hexbear.net 9 points 11 hours ago

Also Engineers: Pi and e are the same thing right?

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 11 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

I'm with you on game theory. It's a totally scientific approach to situations where it's applicable.

With that said, game theory can only apply to people in situation rooms. It does not and can not apply to the wider pictures and movements where game theory can not explain decisions that go outside of its expectations due to class-based pressures and movements.

[-] duderium@hexbear.net 29 points 13 hours ago

His brainworms were definitely on display when he argued that israel and the USA have separate interests.

[-] DornerStan@lemmygrad.ml 23 points 13 hours ago

And that Russians are an inherently "warlike culture" which is why they invaded Ukraine.

Supposedly some weird stuff about Stalin and Barbarossa too but I stopped watching after a couple videos.

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 27 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

That's a common and widespread belief in China, that Russians are a "warrior culture" or that Slavs are a "warrior race"

They mostly mean it as a compliment though, not a "savage" feature but one of competence. It is very anti-materialist though. It's like they think the world is an RPG and different races get different stats and starting bonuses.

[-] TraschcanOfIdeology@hexbear.net 19 points 13 hours ago

It's also suicidal for Iran. Closing hormuz would make them have at the very least tense relationships with other states that are on neutral terms with them, like China. If there's something China will respond to is their energy supply being disrupted.

[-] iie@hexbear.net 18 points 13 hours ago

maybe Iran should promise China not to close the strait if China improves Iran’s air defenses.

[-] TraschcanOfIdeology@hexbear.net 6 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

The PLA is way more likely to attack the Iranian navy to break the blockade than to help Iran's defense, imo.

Iran holding hormuz hostage isn't going to ingratiate them to China at all, and Iran doesn't need another superpower mad at them.

[-] jack@hexbear.net 13 points 11 hours ago

The PLA is way more likely to attack the Iranian navy to break the blockade than to help Iran's defense, imo.

A ridiculous thing to say. China sells arms. They don't break naval blockades.

[-] TraschcanOfIdeology@hexbear.net 3 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

But they won't sell arms to someone threatening to cut them off from gulf states' oil and gas supply, much less openly jump to their defense by providing weapons systems, risking giving the west an excuse to rope them into a larger conflict. The PLA breaking the blockade directly was meant to be me saying something ridiculously unlikely, but that I think it's more likely than Iran shutting Hormuz down and getting air defense hardware in exchange for reopening. They're not in a position to negotiate using that option as leverage.

The actual thing that I believe would happen is that China would turn the screws diplomatically and economically until Iran has to open Hormuz up, because they can't be fighting what by every indication will be an internal war, Israel, and having whatever trade China does with them or it's allies be cut off.

[-] WasteTime@hexbear.net 2 points 8 hours ago

How much oil can Iran supply to China through that new freight train they announced which goes through Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kirghistan and Kazakhstan? Is it relevant enough in this situation?

[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 17 points 12 hours ago

Israel’s figured out one neat trick to keep terrorizing Iran: keep your traitors activated and droning during the “ceasefire”

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 14 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

Where are you seeing that?

EDIT: IRGC claims to have intercepted "small drones" roughly two hours ago. - WarCabinet (no image or video, however)

Middle east spectator claims they were "from inside" Iran.

Resistance News Network and AMK Mapping showed footage of air defence guns targeting drones. Otherwise seems to be over.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 14 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

Tehran, Shiraz, and Hamadan just activated their air defenses

You mean they could've just done that the entire time?

EDIT: Nothingburger? Surely Israeli warplanes would have arrived by now.

EDIT: anti air guns targeting small drones. Saw some footage on telegram. Seemed to be dealt with for now.

this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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