Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
the newsmega can have a little 'is zohran mao or obama' struggle session as a treat (such as in this subthread) but this is the world newsmega, not the electoralism-mega and so please limit zohran posting to a dull roar. things like zohran struggle sessions are literally exactly what c/electoralism was made for, not the news mega.
along the same lines, zionists and fascists are having a shitfit about zohran and yes it is funny, but let's try to keep the newsmega to only the dankest of memes and the saltiest of zionist tears. we don't need to hear about every DC think tankie pondering the orb with bill ackman.
As a non-American, I couldn’t give any less of a damn what a single New York mayor will or will not do, because ultimately he doesn’t have any control over American foreign policy which does affect me and everyone I know.
I will say this though: the amount of glazing I’ve seen Americans on this site give this “socialist” reminds me a lot of when the old chapo subreddit was glazing Bernie and AOC back in the day as the new revolutionary movement. And look where that got you guys
Just let people have their fun.
American leftists still believe that they can achieve transformative change without having to sacrifice their first world comforts and privileges. That’s why they are so invested in peaceful protests and electoralism.
Because the alternative is to turn militant, getting hunted by the Feds, having to hide and organize from an underground network far and away from the treats and comforts they’re so used to enjoying, like what the actual communists used to do. It’s truly putting your ideological conviction to the test. Are you willing to lose your life for your own ideology? That’s just too much, couldn’t do that. This is why all the American “Marxist” parties will give you a dozen reasons why they’re never getting armed.
People on this site like to fantasize that they could become some revolutionary fighters, but how many of them can actually commit to a life like that? I even doubt that most of us in China can do that now that life has gotten so comfortable compared to a hundred years ago.
As a US leftist it's a shame that I agree so much with you. Compared to the Russian or Chinese communists at the start of their work, we are so far from the conditions that would push us into that life, no matter how much we know it's necessary for the liberation of the people.
I think many people in the US are fearful of modern surveillance, it would be much more difficult to hide than in 1917, and fearful of right-wing terrorism. Because of the image of the power of the state, it can look like the only option is to get everyone on our side, all rise up at once in some mass general strike, or to remain completely lawful and 'work within the system'.
Lenin was imprisoned and then exiled to organize from abroad. Stalin stayed underground and had to organize in secret, narrowly avoided prosecution by the authorities numerous times. These people were living dangerously.
Chinese communists had it even worse. During the Long March, attrition rate was 95%, either died fighting the pursuing KMT forces, or from exposure to the elements. Barely a few thousand cadres made it to Yan’an, outgunned and outnumbered, after trekking thousands of miles of the most arduous mountainous terrain. Without ideological conviction, the group would have disbanded long before they made it to their destination.
Don't forget to throw Canadian into there too! These fantasies I've heard from some comrades and it has me laughing.
+1. But Leegh is also right. And I don't want our first world comrades (even if they still think that electoralism can take us somewhere close to socialism) to fall back to defeatism or worse (like those ML and Trots that turned to neoliberalism after the fall of the URSS...). I just want them to be prepared if that yankee betrays them. And, if we are being materialist, the betrayal is the most probable result, so is better if that don't comes with surprises or a new wave of "fundidos".
Here in Argentina, the CPA is part of the Kirchnerist party (center-left peronism, the socdem party if you will). There was a recent lawfare move to put the principal figure of the Kirchnerism in jail (Cristina Kirchner) because of corruption (yes, they are very corrupt. And they have blood of the workers in their hands). But, even the trots jumped to defend a corrupt politician (trots parties being the biggest leftist movement in Argentina).
Now, we know this is classic lawfare. We know what it means to other parties. We know is time to take a stance. But even the trots "bend the knee" to the kirchnerism party on their performative politics, with Cristina calling to stop the protests because "we will defeat them in the ballots, just wait two more years".
Every politician is all in on the electoralism during a full neoliberal "no-brakes, I hate even the children" phase. Wich is a shame. But we know about the sparks that kindles burning fires (24 february of 1917 women's protest in Russia, for example). Maybe something like that can happen here, or in the USA (a country where is so easy to buy a weapon). Or not. But protests and hate against the ruling libertarian party keeps growing a growing, outside the opposition parties (the leftist parties could grown for this, but they are very confortable with their seats on the senate and their alliances with the bourgeoisie).
But we see how the material conditions are deteriorating, both in the first world and the third world. The yankees are losing things that were normal to them. Things that are luxuries in the third world, and even more so now.
So, we need to keep fighting. No doomerism nor being idealistic. But the contradictions are sharpening, and we can't just be defeated to the "barbarism" that comes with the inevitable capitalist downfall. TRPF is closer and closer to 0 and we know how capitalism tends to "delay" it...