I feel 2 and 5 (with a bit of 6). Also I think EU capital is deeply integrated with Wall Street. I was recently reading Nkrumah's Neocolonialism where he discusses this integration of western capital already from the 60ies.

Edit: Also Europe is quasi-occupied by the US.

1-Ends trade war instability so they're happy, even with a pre-emptive defeat.

Immediacy is always a major driver for financial capitalism, so this is a weighty factor.

2-Their personal wealth is based on the EUR and GBP being an integral part of the dollar system. Their loyalty is primarily to dollar hegemony and American oligarchs provide the ideological apparatus that sustains their rule

Definitely, they are a bought-off comprador class just like in US-aligned colonized states. The big difference is that they also have a large class of PMC types who support the project, so only the material crumbling of European prosperity (incoming) will trouble this system.

3-Fracture between national political elites and their predecessors who they kicked upstairs to be Eurocrats, with the latter trying to leverage whatever they can to burn the former regardless of consequence (you can find plenty of national elites that support this shit though, and the ones that don't are either not in power or not speaking up against it)

I think this is going to be an outcome more than it is a cause. The EU is getting crumbly.

4-Post-Maastricht integration failed to forge the cohesive transnational class capable of interest articulation. The mental result is mindless Atlanticism on every level

This is the line France's left is taking in their recent national assembly report - that reflexive Atlanticism is killing European sovereignty by making them incapable of pursuing their own national interests and subsuming everything to the US. It's definitely accurate and a major future fracture point.

5-They self-consciously view themselves as local satraps within global US empire. There’s no way for them to stand up to American aggression. By definition.

This just seems like another version of #2.

6-Nothing complicated. Simply put, Europe thrives on American demand, and there’s no alternative that isn’t a half leap into the void. You settle for an emperor who raises your tariffs and hope he doesn’t crush you.

This is how Trump understands it and it's the primary muscle the US actually has to flex over the EU in a direct sense.

I think all of the above are important considerations.

A mix of 1,2,5,6

I would add too 5 that most euro elites feel similar to canadian libs, a kinship with dems but will use their own alleged countries superior morality to waggle at americans depending on the issue, very "internationalist" with local culture being seen as a tacky remnant associated with poor "yokels". American cultural hegemony reigns supreme in europe, especially those that speak english well.

To 6 I would say no, europe is very dependent on trade with BRICS, thats why the us had to blow up nordstream, despite local capitalists being more pro-russian than you would assume. The financial & tech class is very much in the us pocket however, like the greens in germany. So its this faction that is forced to allign itself with the us.

Their professional life is aspiring to appease Brussels in order to reach its inner sphere, where they circlejerk about how great Euroland and further alienate themselves, all the while surrounded by lobbying groups posing as independent parties, which inevitably are full of American capital spending money and influence to control.

They simply accept it as their role, it's just how things work.

[No. 6] How much does the EU really have to depend on US demand? They don't run a massive trade surplus and they have a fairly strong domestic consumer base and currency. If even in such a case, you have to bow down to American consumer demand, then what hope does anyone else have?

I think on the finance side, the bigger factor is that the Americans hold trillions of euros worth of European corporate stock, and the Europeans cannot see a path to re-aligning with Russia or China (the latter because Chinese businesses would force down European prices and end European monopoly capitalism*).

*Even without involution in china, even if they were to increase domestic wages, European industry is too atrophied/privatised to really compete.

As I can see it, monopoly capitalist societies have a hard time adapting because adapting comes with the risk of loosing your monopoly advantages.