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The scale of conflict has escalated significantly since then. Casualties are in the hundreds of thousands.
American popular sentiment was very invested in the outcome of the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars two years into those conflicts. I don't think that works in their favor. On the contrary, they're exposed to a backlash if they do any kind of withdrawal or suffer another nasty run of casualties or tie the conflict back to a new economic downturn.
For the time being. But a big role of the Bush Era State Department and beyond has been prodding EU/Middle Eastern states to arm up and get into these territorial fights. Turning European and Arab allies (and more recently Pacific states) into armed outgrowths of the US-based MIC. As fascist movements throughout Central Europe build up in popularity, and as states ramp up the size and scope of their domestic police forces, its easy to see conflict accelerate into border clashes and then open war.
That's exactly what happened in Ukraine between 2006 and 2021. First, police forces ramped up. Then the conflict flared up into a decade long civil war. Finally, as the western bloc gained territory in Donetsk and the fighting spilled over the border, the conflict went international.
Why would this not happen in Poland or Hungary or Italy or Germany? Turkey is already in the thick of it and could easily be the next domino to fall. Syria almost tipped into civil war and international conflict thanks to US interventions. There's nothing magical about these Western states that would prevent pogroms against Africans, Arabs, Slavs, and other Asian cohorts (particularly the Chinese) that would in turn flare up into wholesale street fighting and eventual interstate conflicts.
I absolutely agree. But I don't think the Russia-Urkaine war backstopped any of it. I only see it as the latest in a string of border classes and ethnic purges that Europeans will be conducting for the next century.
Fascism never just stops inside the borders of a state. As soon as refugees start fleeing the state and businesses suffer and neighboring territories see attacks on their ex-pats as an attack on themselves, the conflict grows in scope.
Russia-Ukraine is the model for the future.