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this post was submitted on 24 Jan 2024
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chapotraphouse
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and this was supposed to be her best state too. Even after the GOP tried to pull a DNC in 2020 and have all the ghouls line up behind Haley she couldn't pull it off.
Although Trump is actually doing worse than I expected him to do, both here and in Iowa. Shows the never-Trumper movement does actually exist in some form on the right and isn't just some weird news media phenomenon. Like with Biden in 2020, no doubt most of those Haley votes are just anti-Trump votes, who tf gives a shit about Nikki Haley. GOP seems just as split as the rest of the country, nearly 50-50. Surprising, thought things would be way more pro-Trump.
Nah NH has open primaries I bet a lot of those votes are libs crossing over desperately trying to avoid the trump W
South Carolina will put this whole thing to bed
It’s amazing watching the 2nd trump presidency coming and knowing it’s inevitable: I feel like I’m watching the planet approach in Melancholia
Except Iowa Trump did even worse. Probably Desantis took some of his vote there, but not a lot clearly. Most desantis people look to have gone to Nicki, at least in nh.
I’m not saying I expect trump to lose. I’m just saying it’s interesting seeing that the gop electorate is still very much a battleground.
he won by 30 points in Iowa, how is that worse
He got 51% of the vote in Iowa vs 55% in New Hampshire. Which is "better", I'm less sure about, though.
I don't think that's a significant difference.
I tend to agree. Trump is certainly dominant among the red team. The exact nature and distribution of that dominance seems rather academic.
People seem to be misunderstanding my point. Every poll going into this had Trump absolutely smoking the entire field. Most people here expected a complete blowout. However the first two states Trump can only manage about 50% of the vote - in Iowa the not-Trump vote was even stronger. Yeah he’s still doing well and probably gonna win, the point is that the GOP electorate is less captured by Trump than most people here often portray.
People say SC will be different, maybe so, I’m not trying to predict anymore. Possibly right, NH was supposed to be Nikki’s best state. But based on these primaries Trump doesn’t seem to have completely taken over. Of course we’ll see how sc goes
I don't think that's accurate at all. I think the people voting for Haley are entirely different from the Never-Trump movement. Years ago Never Trump people like David Frum and Bill Kristol started to appear on MSNBC all the time. I don't remember when 2018? I bet the never Trump vote was much less than a single percentage point then. And MSNBC entirely lost interest in them. I don't think they've had a "never Trump" segment in years.
In any case when it comes to Haley - I think a small percentage of republicans started to be bit embarrassed after Trump's criminal indictments started to come down. They want to seem principled and decent. They aren't never Trump people by any means. I'd bet money that a large percentage of republican and independent voters who voted for Haley (or will vote for her) will change when they vote in the general election. They'll do what republicans do which is vote for Trump. There's no "never" for them. Biden could cure cancer himself before election day and they'd still vote for Trump.
There are polls showing that a significant amount of Haley voters won't vote for Trump, with 43% going to Biden. That's a big enough percentage to sink him in every swing state. Of course it's impossible to know how it will actually play out, but I think more Repubs are sick of trump than you might think.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112
Polling only works if people are honest. I have great fatigue when it comes to comes to republicans saying they don't like Trump. There's always a "but". Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm too cynical but to this point the "but" has always been there. Sometimes they say it and sometimes they don't. Biden's plan is to pray that the fascism fever will break. I think that's a truly terrible dangerous plan and total nonsense. In any case - we'll know in ~286 days.
Those people are full of shit and just don't like admitting they're going to vote for Trump.
They'd probably also tell you they didn't vote for him the last two times which would also be horseshit.
yeah fair enough. I guess by never trump I just meant anti-Trump, since you're right probably most of those people will likely vote Trump in the general so they're not quite the same.
I suppose what I meant was, it is surprising how anti-Trump the GOP is. We often make fun of the never-Trumpers for believing that they represent the hogs in the GOP, but really they're not completely wrong. The GOP seems to be split down the middle with nearly half ready to throw their support behind some neocon appointed by the establishment. Not that they're gonna vote Biden or for any Democrat like the never-Trumpers, but the GOP remains a battleground.
Iowa and NH are notoriously weird and fringe candidates often do better there. Super Tuesday is usually where the numbers start to actually matter.
I'm also surprised Trump isnt doing better but I think the phenomenon of everybody realisong this is a formality and they don't have to waste their time voting for him is under acknowledged.