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this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2024
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My bet is it'll pass. US, Germany, and possibly (less likely) UK & Australia (less likely than UK still) will vote no, the rest yes.
I think the wording of some of the requests by SA will be altered slightly, and some might not be mandated, but most will.
Although it's supposed to be without predujuce to the merits of the case, these preliminary judgements de facto are an indication of the merits, lawyers always fight a preliminary ruling even though its supposed to make no difference to the final one because actually it obviously does.
I hope I'm right, but I'm prepared to be mocked as a fool if I'm wrong.
In terms of what happens next, Israel will ignore it in practice but also do a propaganda blitz pretending to abide by it, the US will continue to pretend its 'influencing' or 'pressuring' Israel to play nice. But it'll open up other legal and diplomatic attacks, and also raise SA's standing and create a good precedent for others, so its good.
edit; obviously ignoring the two ad hoc judges, who will vote yes and no respectively.