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this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2024
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There has been a pretty steady stream of these articles and then you look at the chart and its like..
Eh. Its in the chop zone. All stocks have been volitle af since 2020.
Always look at the bright side of life
Reddit (rddt) is in the "chop" zone. At the current market cap Truth Social has valued their users at $4115 each. Facebook only values their users at $299.25. If they assumed the same as Facebook, the stock would be valued around $4.54/share!
That's being generous af
I mean, just throwing it out there, but I think you are trying to do a bit of fundementals on this. Which is like, fine, and on a sane planet is exactly how you should think about things.
However, we do not live on a sane planet, and when you look at stocks like TSLA, APPL, GME, I mean fuck, basically everything. You look at startup and VC valuations, like the whole fucking thing is so detached from fundamentals. I guess there are some classes of stock where fundamental analysis is how you should determine a valuation, but clearly, fundamentals have not been driving valuations for a very very long time. Its that "something else" that is driving price.
So that being said, does Truth Social have that something else? Truth social is a joke of a social media company. Its not the product or the service or its user base you would be gambling on for this one, its one asshole named DJT. I personally would put a negative value on its users/ userbase. From an advertiser perspective, they might actually cost me money by engaging with the platform That being said, consider if Donny Tinyhands wins in November, what do you think happens to Truth Socials price? Like it exists as a stock SPECIFICALLY to enrich Orange Mangosteen. It would go gang busters. Why? Because he's corrupt as fuck and the stock is a vehicle purely for self enrichment. You think he wont self deal? You think Republicans in the house or Senate would do anything more than wag a finger? Fuck some of them might just end up becoming hypemen for whatever boner-pills or kettle bell testosterone supplements and being schlepped on the platform. Fuck, if Biden doesn't start doing better, we'll probably find out Pelosi has gone long.
I would look at the stock as a somewhat real time indicator of Donald Trumps chances in the 2024 election. If people think he's going to win, they should buy the stock. If they think he's going to lose, they should sell/ short the stock. And it may even be backwards from that, because of Trumps cash position and his legal entanglements. The more volatile/ lower the price goes, the less he's able to use it as leverage to increase his cash position. He may end up relying on that to continue to fund his legal battles and presidential campaigns.
Tldr: fundementals smundementals.
I don't disagree. There is definitely some level of detachment from reality on many stocks. His is more detached than the rest but that doesn't mean the fundamentals predict its reality. I also don't doubt it would be a perfect vehicle for anyone to lobby his influence. But before/if he gets in, this baby is going to see the floor. Don't know if the Saudis or Russia would want to put up the billions to prop it up just hoping he gets in.
If you want a sane valuation of a stock, the only value is the dividend, unless you want to be on the board. All other value is the belief someone will pay you $1 more for the thing you have which has no other value than the above.
I don't know much about stocks, but on every time span chart this stock looks like it's in total disaster mode
https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/djt
I mean if you were looking at META in November 2023, you would say the same thing right? It was down 75% from ATH. It was dropping WAY faster than Truth social has been. I mean the metaverse? C'mon.
Since then its run up 500%. Is meta 500% more valuable than it was 2 years ago?
AMD ran up from $2 in 2016 to $160 today. That's a 8000% increase. Did they start doing 80x the business?
Prices don't mean shit. Fundamentals don't mean shit. Nothing means anything. Its bullshit stacked on bullshit stacked on bullshit.There is no inherent meaning to price and value. Its all relative made up bullshit. Its not untrue to say that its all a fugazi. You just gotta appreciate that its all made up before you wade in.
I assume you're talking about November 2022, because Meta is only up 50% from November 2023. Meta was oversold in 2022 and was at prices not seen since 2015. Do you think Meta was a better company in 2022 than in 2015?
There was a general selloff in tech at the time. You can argue that some companies are overvalued now, but Meta in particular has a PE of 34. It's probably a bit expensive but it makes a lot of money every year. It's only issue now is how they can grow once everyone has a Facebook account.
Like, its easy to come up with reasons why things happen after the fact.
You seem to have some decently strong belief that you know whats going on. How much money were you able to make off of Facebooks moves throughout that period?
My guess is you probably didn't make a bet. Or maybe you did. I'd be actually very interested to hear if you did one way or another. If you bet line go up, you were making a gamble. If you bet line go down, you were making a gamble. If your thesis only predicts the past, what am I supposed to do with it?
And thats my broader point. The rules are made up and the points don't matter. Its all a game of perception. Are valuations forward facing or are they based on fundamentals? Are fundamentals even relevant in a market this detached or should we really be focusing on Jensen Huangs leather jacket?
Teslas market cap is 512 B. Toyotas market cap is 395 B. Toyota is doing 250 B in revenue and Tesla is doing 20 B in revenue:
If valuations are forward facing, then what are the valuing? If the game was made sense, a simple slide ruler is all you would need to win the game.
The stock market is just voting in the short term but it's weighing in the long term. Fundamentals work, but sometimes markets are irrational. This is not new. Things have always been this way.
If you don't like it, you need to invest in Treasury Bills.
Cool, it sounds like you’re getting it. Read “Trading & Exchanges” by Harris and “Reminisces of a Stock Operator” by Lefevre about Jesse Livermoore. Just a suggestion
It's pretty close to the most shorted stock in history, and none of its fundamentals are good. They're straight up awful. Like, really, really, really bad.
There is no reason the stock should be worth more than a few pennies. If that.
Talking about it like it's comparable to other stocks is completely ignoring literally every single data point in the market. Every. One.
So, you're either completely ignorant of how the stock market works, and shouldn't be listened to; or you're aware of all of this and trying to create some sense of normalcy for the bullshit that is DJT, in which case you also shouldn't be listened to.
It doesn't really matter which one it is, honestly. The result is the same. You're not to be listened to :)
Like, you aren't really worth replying to because you've got it so fucking backwards, but if you think this stock is that bad, then put your money where your mouth is and buy puts.
I've explained it elsewhere so you can paw around and find the longer form explanation, but in a stock market fully detached from fundamentals, making along bet on this stock is betting on a Trump win in November. What price would you think this stock is worth if Trump is once again in the white house?
AMD was worth 18 dollars. Then it was worth two. Now its worth 160. What does a stocks price mean did the actual value of the company swing that much?
Meta dropped 250 billion in value in a single trading session. What did that mean?
How about Nikola. They rolled a prop without any parts that could be considered vehicular down a hill. Their stock was a literal rocket. Its now worth 1/100th that price, and yet they still have a 800 million dollar market cap.
See its either that no stock prices make sense and its all horse shit, or that things are based in fundamentals, and you are just measuring the wrong things. You can't have it both ways.
If you think you know more than me, then saddle up to the bar and down load some trading app and give the hog a crank. I'm doing just fine making decisions on how I think things work. If you are so confident in your world view, bet on it.
Why in the world would I want to short the most volatile and expensive to short stock in the world? There's so many fucking puts on this that it's one of the major things artificially driving up the stock price.
There's no way I'm going anywhere near that fucking pile of dogshit.
But you are right about the market being disconnected from fundamentals. Additionally, you're right about it going up like crazy if he makes it back into the white house