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Joe Biden ends re-election campaign
(www.bbc.com)
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this post was submitted on 21 Jul 2024
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Kamala or open convention (itll be Kamala)
If its kamala were getting trump 10000%
I remember when we thought Trump was a uniquely hated and weak candidate and it was remarkable that Hillary lost to him. We were right then. Kamala can beat him lol. The main problem with Biden in the eyes of the core electorate is that he's old. Thats not the main problem for the left but we're not the decision makers here lol.
To me, it's a tossup. Trump only looks good vs Biden, but Harris (assuming they pick her) isn't that great either. The botched assassination has energized the hogs while no one wants Harris and she is too close to the Biden administration by virtue of being vice president. There's going to be low voter turnout, which always favor the GOP candidate.
I think if the Democrats pick someone else like, that candidate has a good chance of beating Trump because that candidate wouldn't have baggage.
I dont think theres any candidate the Dems where their strength combiend with this would overcome how bad it would look to the base to pick anyone but Kamala unfortunately. It would be nice if they could just pick the strongest candidate to beat him, but thats not what the Dem voters are used to.
That's what the scaremongering over Project 2025 is for. Once they scaremonger Project 2025 at a sufficient level, they can sell that the Democrats needs to stop Project 2025 by any means necessary including handpicking a candidate who can beat Trump. As long as they can justify their choice with polling data, the base will play along.
It's a moot point since Biden has endorsed Harris, and that's who the candidate will most likely be.
Wait im not sure what youre saying here, please rephrase?
The narrative here used to be that Trump was an all timer as a weak candidate and historically hated and that only Hillary could have lost to him. Then it slightly evolved that Biden is historically weak to oppose him now too, but really to me thats only because his brain is melting before our eyes. I think literally anyone else can kick his ass lol.
The thing you're forgetting though is that Kamala is ALSO a shitty candidate like Hillary and Biden was.
As others have already pointed out, she is the only candidate who polled worse than Biden against Trump. She's nowhere near the level of charm and charisma Obama was.
At least half the country thinks she's a Cultural Marxist that will destroy America (I wish). And her fanbase is nearly identical to Hillary's was (suburbanite wine moms).
Of course her being younger, not part of any political dynasty, and also actually non-White could tip the scales in her favour. But we'll see.
This has changed is the thing.
I also dont think she's as viscerally unlikealbe as Hillary was, nor does she have her baggage. I stand by thinking Hillary was uniquely qualified to lose to Trump and the only reason Biden entered that category is that he's dying lol.
Oh no i think most people lose in a match up with trump unless its another celebrity
Yeah I don't think so. His approval rating has always been low and Democrats are super energized by abortion (they were only being deflated because Biden old, some by Gaza obv but not enough to matter). He beat Hillary because Hillary sucks ass. As I said in another comment, "a particularly youthful looking broom with a wig on and a speech bubble attatched to it saying "abortion" could probably beat Trump".
I'm standing by the old narrative. Trump sucks ass and it took a particularly shitty candidate to lose to him (Hillary).
Approval ratings and polls mean nothing at all, basically anecdotal information
Kamala is also a shitty candidate tbf and has the same low energy fakeness hillary had
Luv u but i disagree respectfully
But even in polls Kamala is not doing too well
Trump loses to “generic unnamed democrat” in most polls. Literally any democrat under the age of 65 will likely beat Trump. Kamala’s one of the weaker options, I’m pretty sure most of the Dem governors poll better than her, but she still beats Trump in most matchups.
Polls are worthless
I think you’re underestimating how many people hate Trump and how much. Remember that he actually got fewer votes than Hillary AND lost to Biden once already.
That doesnt matter though and also more people are less willing to vote for the party who doesnt do shit and participates in genocide
Couple of weeks ago Kamala polled 42 to 41 winning against Trump, well within the margin of error.
Which is an improvement over Biden and I assume the same hidden zoomer vote from 2022 will come into play again. I dont think anyone else is polling better against him? And even if they are, it looks REALLY bad if the DNC pivots to someone else.
This is what I was reacting to, as it's far from the truth, I don't give a shit about the exact candidate to be honest either way. I still watch because what happens in the centre of the empire reverberates in the periphery.
Not that polls count, but according to the polls, Kamala could lose the same way Hillary did.
Trump was always a uniquely hated and weak candidate. It was remarkable that Hillary lost to him. And then we analyzed the situation. Trump won by electoral votes. The swing states were strategically campaigned for a long time. Trump getting elected energized a broad base both for and against, and the base that was for was previously nigh invisible.
Then Biden beat him. How? Well, he was a career politician for decades. He had a massive machine behind him, Democrats were energized for anything but Trump, and the Trump base was complacent, as most winners are, that they were going to be fine.
Now we have Harris, who has not been campaigning and will only have 3 months to campaign, Trump got shot at, and the Democrats have alienated a huge portion of their base.
Which means that in swing states, the ones that win the electoral college, Trump has the underdog advantage, he has the martyr advantage, he has the white male advantage, he has the rhetorical advantage, he has the campaign grind advantage, and he has the demotivated opposition advantage.
The much hated Trump is going to win the electoral college through swing voters for one of three reasons and Kamala is going to get the base less the disillusioned.
There needs to be major strategic moves in 90 days by the DNC to have by chance of winning the electoral college.
Some of this I agree with but
Abortion.
I have other little nitpicks but this is the main one lol.
Edit: Oh wait, one other nitpick I have is that we've already seen that the assasination attempt didnt actually change Trump's polling.
It doesn't need to change his polling, it needs to change voter motivation. Very different things.
Also, Ds have campaigned on abortion for 40 years. The electorate cares but they don't trust the Ds to fix it. The fatigue is real and it will cause more people to stay home.
Yeah but now Roe is actually gone which totally changes the equation.
Also are we forgetting how 2022 went so quickly?? Some of that hidden zoomer vote will be deflated by Gaza, but less so now that the candidate isnt actually Biden himself (even if Kamala as his VP will carry that baggage to some extent, which is one of the best arguments for picking someone untouched by it even if they would definitly continue it lol). But still, quiet a lot of it will remain... especially because of abortion. Zoomers largely havent had the chance to have the life go out of their eyes yet lol.
Characterizing "believing Democrats will save them" as "still having life in their eyes" is a little backwards. Zoomere are more informed than most generations before them and they also have that rebellious spark that every generation had. Couple that the awareness of how bad the Dems are fucking everyone and I would say Zoomers are more likely than anyone to get disillusioned by the bullshit that is the DNC.
Now that Roe is gone, we all watched the Ds refuse to pack the court. We all watched them argue they couldn't protect abortion because of the filibuster and then bypass the filibuster to raise the debt ceiling. We all watched them compromise and compromise and compromise even on things Republicans wanted without ever taking an inch. They have failed. Now that Lucy has pulled the football, you think there's energy to have Lucy try us again.
The energy is dispersed and the dominant energy is fear of fascism, fear of right wing death squads, fear of the return of lynching. The Ds primary advantage is that they are not Trump and the vast majority of energy out there is the base that isn't bothered so much by things like genocide. But the Ds are terrible at narrative control except insofar as they play the victim and blame others for their failings.
Another poster said it best, the Ds have somehow reversed how politics works and have stated that success of a campaign is the responsibility of the donors and voters. That's not how any of this works.
I don't see them coalescing around a different candidate in this short amount of time. Would be GREAT if they would've had an actual primary... but it's their party or whatever so this is who they're most likely stuck with
The idea of voting for Kopala is ridiculous, the only thing even die hard libs have to say about her is that she's a woman of color