The Sahm recession indicator triggered in July. Now both this and the Kantro indicator are signaling that a recession already started. Both have a near perfect record since 1970. (fred.stlouisfed.org)

submitted 3 months ago by yogthos@lemmy.ml to c/news@hexbear.net

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https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-flat-after-1000-point-rally-in-four-days/card/a-reliable-labor-market-recession-indicator-has-triggered-but-this-time-it-could-be-bullish-for-stocks-sXgJRUlCo2TNywR6XgDc

The Sahm rule is a robust tool that has been very accurate in identifying a downturn in the business cycle and almost always doesn't trigger outside of a recession. The simplicity of the calculation contributes to its reliability. The Sahm rule signals the early stages (onset) of a recession and generated only two false positive recession alerts since the year 1959 (there have been 11 recessions since 1950); in both instances — in 1959 and 1969 — it was just a little untimely, with the recession warning appearing a few months before a slide in the U.S. economy began.[13] In the case of the false positive warning related to the year 1959 it was followed by an actual recession six months later. The Sahm rule typically signals a recession before GDP data makes it clear.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_rule

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[-] someone@hexbear.net 9 points 3 months ago

I would argue that anyone who tries to dispute this excellent point needs a refresher on everything Marx ever did.

this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2024

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