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Ukraine’s Allies Watch Its Push Into Russia for Clues to Endgame
(www.bloomberg.com)
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this post was submitted on 16 Aug 2024
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I feel like what's your end goal is a really valid question. My theory is that Ukraine is going to use it for negotiation. They were coming from a very weak position, but now it's less weak
Their position is far more weak now because they wasted thousands of troops on an incursion that has no strategic value. In fact, Putin has already come out and said that there can't be negotiations after this. Russia is still advancing all across the front that's collapsing at an increasing speed, and this just made Russia's job easier because instead of having to storm fortified positions, Ukraine brought out their troops into the open. Once Russia is done mopping up in Kursk, it's almost certain that they're going to push in from there in a big way.
Threatening the nuclear power plant along with ZNPP was most likely the original goal, and that was probably the hare brained scheme to try and get some leverage over Russia when the negotiations start. Given that they got nowhere close to it, I think it's safe to say the gambit failed.
It does reek of a desperation move
They are absolutely desperate at this point. The brewing conflict with Iran is taking attention from the war already, and on top of it Russia is taking territory at an ever increasing rate. Convincing western sponsors to dump more money into this must be very difficult right now.
If Russia believes they can push Ukraine out then all this achieves is to delay a cease fire and Ukraine isn’t even able to hold their extremely well fortified Donbas line so they won’t be able to hold in Kursk.
It’s Battle of the Bulge. This is the last hoorah. The next step is either the Donbas line breaks, which makes Kursk irrelevant, or they rush the elite units out of Kursk to reinforce the Donbas line, which means Kursk falls.
They’ve scored a PR win only and that’s not actually worth much.
Huh. You're right. This is more Battle of the Bulge than anything. That's probably the best way I've heard it described.