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this post was submitted on 06 Sep 2024
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NATO losing to Russia in Ukraine, and to the Houthis in the Gulf of Aden, will send a message to a lot of neutral countries that (1) NATO can't / won't protect you anymore, and (2) you can push back against NATO and win or at least gain concessions. NATO will still be the single largest military bloc in the world, but they'll actually have to negotiate, maybe even compromise.
Yeah...only thing that makes me feel like this is still semi-hyperbolic is...didn't Afghanistan and the last quarter of a century plus already kinda show that to be the case? Ukraine itself already kinda seems like the result of that sense that the west is insurmountably powerful being squashed.
There's also not a lot of the Afghan excuses that can be used for Ukraine.