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this post was submitted on 15 Sep 2024
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Economy is slowing drastically in south Texas. Lot of the other plumbers I know are being laid off or sent home early for days in a row. New construction has all but fallen off. I am the lead on three new homes and a half dozen or more remodels. All 3 new homes are on hiatus until beginning of the year due to cash flow Issues. Except for two remodels, all the others are on hold. Our daily service calls are dwindling down to a half a day or so’s worth of work daily. My neighbor pours concrete- he has been home every day this week, employees can’t use their tools because there isn’t shit to do.
Unemployment here is up anecdotally- due to being a tradie for so long most of the other folks I know are also tradesmen of some sort. I ran into a framing carpenter I’ve know for over 20 years who is working a second job as a gas station attendant just to have some money coming in. One of the painters I used to call to repair drywall after I cut walls open to fix plumbing is no longer painting, he went back to school to get certified to teach school.
Something is happening. I’m too dumb to understand it tho.
High interest rates caused mass layoffs and curbed investment into new projects. All of this is the downstream effect of the Fed trying to strangle wage growth because people weren't suffering enough. Now nobody has any money to buy things and companies who gleefully raised prices while wages stagnated are reaping what they have sown.
This is straight up Milton Friedman thought. He is the architect of our ruin:
Milton Friedman on Inflation - Edward Nelson
When you are arguing with neolibs on economy, you are arguing with Milton Friedman.
Historically (since Sumer and Babylon) debt has been reset periodically because compound interest eventually breaks the economy. New kings would reset the debt because most of them were to the palace and it kept their army intact by not having small holders constantly getting dispossessed.
Our modern priests have convinced themselves that actually that's bullshit and profits can go on forever exponentially, while the production curve is logistic.