This is an opinion only. I wanted to preface it that way because I realized how much it sounded like I had inside knowledge. I do not. I'm a drunk, ignorant redneck.

I wouldn't put it past them, but those polls shouldn't move the needle very far at places like the silver bulletin or 538 because they weigh based on how trustworthy the polls are. Reputable polls aren't getting bought and fake polls may hit news articles but don't really hit forecasts very hard.

I've watched 538 since they came back online. There was a point where Kamala had greater than a 60 in 100 chance to win. Right now it's about as low as it has been with her up 53 to 46.

We're halfway through October so I have no idea if we're getting a surprise. I'd like to see something that tilts things blue.

I fucking hate this. Are people really that oblivious regarding who these people have shown themselves to be?

On one side, the top of the ticket is somebody who has lied and cheated their whole life, even to a criminal extent, and has never shown any capacity to learn or grow in any meaningful way. They have shown nothing but contempt for anything related to justice or democracy or social progress. The VP pick for this candidate is funded by tech bro billionaires whose entire philosophy is predicated on the notion that a few wealthy and powerful oligarchs should dominate a rule over their lesser peasant-like laborers.

On the other side, the top of the ticket is a career civil servant who has been elected to all three branches of government and holds a juris doctore that proves their competency in law and the processes therein. They have flaws, but appear to be open to learning and growing, changing stances on policies as the times change and more information comes out. The VP pick for this candidate is perhaps best known for expanding liberties and ensuring that all schoolchildren were properly fed in the state that they were elected Governor of.

This election should be a fucking blowout victory for the latter candidate. It's absolutely absurd that it could be even remotely close. There is, and I'm not exaggerating when I say this, nothing redeeming about the other ticket. Nothing. They will not help you in any way. They will consolidate wealth and power for themselves and their inner circle, and you ain't in it. They are not only unwilling, but unable to show any sincere compassion for you. The best they can offer is sociopathic performance of compassion to manipulate you into giving them your vote. Do not fall for these proven charlatans.