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this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2024
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The plan for the war makes less sense every year.
The US navy doesn't have the capacity to close the Taiwan straight anymore, so the idea now is to blockade the Singapore straight, 3000 kilometers to the south, and cut off Chinese shipping from the world markets... that is to say, the nation that doesn't produce anything but excel spreadsheets thinks it can win a war by blocking the source of all the cheap goods that keep their consumer economies running.
Indeed, there was a window when US navy had a clear superiority over China. However, that window closed a long time ago. The worry is that the US is going to go nuclear. There was even a policy paper, from RAND I think, that openly advocated using nuclear weapons against China.
Frankly, this should be known globally, and every one of the ghouls involved in writing this policy should be lynch mobbed, full stop. As a species we have an obligation to neutralize our own who behave in ways that threaten all known life.
RAND
lol
I remember seeing one of their papers about the Russian 'firehose of disinformation' strategy
they literally just described RAND
😆
Westoids love to make fun of Russia for supposedly expecting a 3-day war in Ukraine, but like, that's precisely the premise here. We saw what happened when China closed a few ports for Covid. How long do they expect a war over the South China Sea to last?!
Also the same people making fun of Russia for expecting a 3 day war have been insisting the Russian army is 3 days from collapse for a little over 2 years at this point.
The US Navy can't even open the Red Sea
It almost seems more practically to close the Suez and Panama canals to Chinese trade. I can't imagine the folks that run Singapore would be thrilled at a nose dive in shipping traffic. Would they even play ball?
The US manufacturing capacity that continues to exist is entirely bound up in military construction and engineering. It's the one thing we still actually do and do reasonably well.
Does the US stand to benefit from a protracted naval conflict with another superpower? Of course not. But I have no doubt they could do at least as much damage as Russia has endured in its conflict with Ukraine.
Lol not ships or tanks
I mean at that point what're they gonna do, the Singaporean navy has 6 subs and 32 surface ships. Similar but slightly larger for Malaysia. FWIW ships can just bypass the entire Malacca Strait, and it's not nearly as far as being forced to go around the cape.
They've got the civilian infrastructure that allows one of the largest and most influential ports in the world to function. Might as well ask what the Longshoreman's Union could do without an army. The US can ruin the port with naval power (in the same way the Houthis curtailed traffic through the Suze), but they can't operate the port by the same means.
Nobody really benefits from a Singapore that ceases to function. Its a lose-lose, and Beijing bureaucrats know that.