[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 1 points 3 minutes ago

https://archive.ph/hZpJk (machine-translated)

Oil No Longer Feeds Russia: What's Really Happening to the Economy

The oil sector plays an increasingly diminishing role in the Russian economy. In 2025, the role of oil and gas revenues in Russian GDP reached a historic low, falling to 13%. RANEPA analysts cite the growing importance of manufacturing and sectors serving the domestic market as the main reason for this trend.

The oil and gas sector's share of the economy has declined by three percentage points over the past year. In 2020, its share of the economy was 14%. It has now fallen below this previously considered minimal figure. In contrast, the overall gross domestic product for the same period showed growth of 1% in nominal terms**, reaching 214.3 trillion rubles.

"The decline in the oil and gas sector's share is also linked to the structural transformation of the economy and the increasing role of manufacturing and industries focused on domestic consumption, such as construction, the hotel industry, and the food service industry," told RIA Novosti . Vladimir Eremkin, a senior research fellow at the Presidential Academy's Laboratory of Structural Research,

However, according to the expert, this year the share of oil and gas in GDP may increase slightly (by 1-2 percentage points). This will be due to a prolonged period of high global energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East. This assessment is supported by Ilya Fyodorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments. He predicts that the average annual oil price in 2026 will be around $65 per barrel, up from $52 in 2025.

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 13 points 1 hour ago

https://archive.ph/sKwnI

US Quietly Moves THAAD and Patriot Batteries in Jordan as Chinese Satellites Expose Every Step During Iran Ceasefire

Chinese commercial satellite imagery has exposed the United States quietly relocating THAAD and Patriot missile-defence batteries across Jordan during the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, revealing how Washington, Tehran and Beijing are now competing simultaneously across missile warfare, surveillance and space-enabled intelligence.

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The United States has quietly used the current US-Iran ceasefire to reposition critical THAAD and Patriot missile defence batteries across Jordan, immediately transforming a temporary operational pause into a wider contest over regional survivability. High-definition Chinese satellite imagery released on April 19 has exposed the new American deployments, demonstrating that even during a fragile ceasefire, large missile defence systems remain visible to increasingly sophisticated foreign surveillance networks. The redeployment carries consequences extending far beyond Jordan because it reveals how the United States, Iran, and China are now competing simultaneously across missile warfare, operational concealment, and space-enabled intelligence collection. The movement followed Iranian strikes during March that damaged the previous THAAD deployment near Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, forcing Washington to reconsider whether its earlier defensive layout remained operationally viable. The American battery originally entered Jordan during late January, reflecting growing concern that Iranian ballistic missiles and armed drones could threaten US facilities throughout the Levant and Gulf.

The current two-week ceasefire, announced on April 8 and brokered by Pakistan, provided the first sufficiently low-risk opportunity for the Pentagon to move sensitive launchers, radars, generators, and supporting logistics equipment. Chinese commercial imagery companies rapidly identified the new deployment areas, publishing annotated photographs showing dispersed launchers, support vehicles, radar arrays, and freshly prepared defensive positions near existing Jordanian military facilities. The released images appeared to show both THAAD launchers linked with AN/TPY-2 radar components and Patriot batteries operating alongside AN/MPQ-65 engagement radars and supporting command vehicles. The resulting public disclosure has intensified concern inside Western defence circles because the imagery emerged from commercial Chinese providers rather than Beijing’s more capable classified military reconnaissance architecture. No American official has publicly confirmed or denied the redeployment, yet the visual evidence corresponds closely with earlier base layouts, known radar signatures, previous launcher configurations, and established American force posture patterns. The exposure of the new Jordanian sites also indicates that future American missile defence deployments across the Middle East may require far greater mobility, deception, camouflage, and electronic concealment than previously considered necessary. For Washington, the Jordan episode has therefore become more than a regional force-protection issue because it demonstrates that every future crisis will unfold beneath continuous Chinese overhead observation.

Ceasefire Used to Repair a Damaged Defensive Shield

The United States appears to have treated the ceasefire primarily as an operational breathing space, allowing damaged missile defence infrastructure inside Jordan to be repaired, replaced, dispersed, and reintroduced without immediate attack. Iranian retaliation during early March reportedly struck the original THAAD site, leaving visible debris, burn marks, and apparent damage surrounding the battery’s principal radar installation. That earlier deployment had been concentrated around Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, where the THAAD system protected American aircraft, logistics hubs, and command facilities supporting operations throughout the broader Middle East. Because THAAD relies heavily upon its AN/TPY-2 radar, any successful strike against that component can significantly degrade the entire battery’s detection, tracking, and interception effectiveness.

...

New Positions Suggest a Shift Toward Dispersed Survivability

The newly visible deployment areas appear deliberately selected to reduce vulnerability against ballistic missiles, armed drones, cruise missiles, and loitering munitions approaching from several directions simultaneously. Rather than returning the systems to their previous, easily identifiable locations, American forces appear to have positioned launchers closer to terrain features and existing infrastructure. The fresh layout also seems more widely dispersed, making it harder for Iranian planners to destroy the entire defensive architecture through a single coordinated strike package. Several launchers appear separated from their associated radar systems, indicating an effort to complicate enemy targeting and reduce the likelihood of simultaneous catastrophic losses.

this also shows the problem with dispersal - there's a reason those launchers come together in a package with the radar systems, separate them and while they may be more survivable, they'll also be less effective

...

Chinese Satellite Imagery Has Exposed a New Battlefield Reality

The Chinese imagery that exposed the redeployment reportedly originated from commercial providers using sub-meter resolution optical satellites supported by artificial intelligence-based analytical software. Those systems can automatically identify launchers, radar arrays, logistics vehicles, roads, prepared sites, and camouflage patterns before rapidly distributing annotated products across social media platforms. The imagery released publicly on April 19 reportedly came from firms associated with MizarVision, which draws upon commercial satellite constellations and automated geospatial interpretation tools. Even those publicly available systems are not considered China’s most advanced overhead surveillance assets, making the episode strategically significant far beyond Jordan. China’s classified military reconnaissance network reportedly offers far greater revisit rates, higher resolution, improved persistence, and substantially stronger all-weather observation capability through combined optical and radar satellites. That means large missile defence systems such as THAAD and Patriot can increasingly be tracked almost continuously, even when deployed rapidly during periods of crisis. The Jordan redeployment therefore illustrates how former assumptions about operational secrecy are rapidly becoming obsolete under modern commercial and military satellite surveillance. American forces may still conceal smaller mobile systems, yet large fixed assets now appear increasingly vulnerable to immediate discovery, analysis, and public dissemination.

Beijing Gains Strategic Leverage Without Direct Involvement

China’s decision to allow the imagery to circulate publicly adds a strategic signalling dimension extending well beyond the immediate question of American missile defence positioning. By exposing the redeployment during a ceasefire, Beijing effectively demonstrated that it can observe, interpret, and publicise sensitive American military activity almost in real time. That capability provides China with indirect leverage because it allows Beijing to influence regional perceptions without deploying forces or issuing direct political threats. The imagery also strengthens China’s narrative that the United States can no longer assume information dominance across the Middle East or Indo-Pacific. For regional states watching the confrontation, the satellite disclosures reinforce perceptions that China now possesses a rapidly expanding intelligence and reconnaissance advantage. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other American security partners may therefore begin questioning whether future US deployments can remain concealed during a prolonged conflict. The episode also creates potential deterrence complications because visible missile defence positions can become easier targets for adversaries planning future precision strikes. China therefore gains strategic value from merely revealing the deployments, even without participating directly in the ongoing confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

Fragile Ceasefire Masks Continued Preparations for Future Conflict

The American redeployment strongly suggests that Washington does not believe the current ceasefire will produce a lasting reduction in regional military tensions. Instead, the repositioning indicates that US commanders expect hostilities could resume quickly if negotiations collapse over Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, or additional Iranian missile activity. The movement of THAAD and Patriot systems into less exposed locations therefore represents a hedge against renewed conflict rather than preparation for withdrawal.

...

The redeployment also suggests that Washington is preparing for future attacks specifically targeting radar systems, launch vehicles, and support infrastructure rather than only personnel. The most important lesson from the episode is therefore not merely that THAAD and Patriot moved inside Jordan, but that every future movement may now occur under nearly total overhead visibility.

...

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 5 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 14 minutes ago)

I really doubt civilians sailors are going to defy the US

This already happened with the Bella 1 tanker around Venezuela. Now, how many sailors would be willing to do that is a different question. But at a certain point, thing could well get economically desperate enough that more and more ships start going for it - plenty of migrants to the US die en-route in the Central American jungle or get captured and brutalized by ICE once in the US, but migration continues, because people are desperate. Brutality can be an effective tool to deter people sometimes, but not as often as the ghouls implementing it would like to think, as history has shown on numerous occasions.

Anyways we're talking the hospital bombing US, the in cahoots with child murdering zionazis USA. No one serious doubts their ability to commit civilian murders when needed to advance their interests and sometimes even when not.

The problem isn't with the morality of murdering sailors, but with the economic effect of openly attacking international shipping. The global markets are amoral and don't give a shit about children being murdered - but they do give a shit about profits, and the entire industry functions on the principle of sailing international waters being safe - if companies have to start pricing in "we might get shot at by the US Navy", that's obviously going to have pretty chilling effects.

The Trump administration has clearly shown itself to be a very business-conscious one, to the point of timing announcements around the market. But then again, they did have a destroyer disable a ship by shooting its engine compartment (which gets around the helicopter boarding troubles), so I guess maybe they just don't give a shit. But collapsing international shipping is hardly a win for the US empire.

They have a lot of levers they can lean on to ensure all western insurance carriers drop the entire shipping company if a single one of their ships defies the US and that's game over for any legit company. Yeah you have Russian "shadow fleet" types but how many really are there available to operate down there considering they're mostly busy ferrying Russian oil already.

The Russian shadow fleet's size is difficult to estimate, on account of the shadow part, but it seems to be pretty big and growing. And it's not exactly even "Russian" at this point - it's just an entire parallel shipping industry, involving ships from a variety of countries. Extending sanctions further and further is just going to drive more and more ships into this parallel system - and this is also an industry known for getting up to lots of shady shit, which is what all the "shadow fleet" drama is all about in the first place.

Dark fleet update: a “Parallel Fleet” is developing, and there is no way to reverse it.

Shipping splits into ‘parallel universes’ as global trade continues to decouple

The US behaving like this is only going to encourage more and more growth of this parallel shipping system. The US doesn't have to resources to run a blockade on the entire ocean - they've got all 3 currently active carrier groups dedicated to just this effort (although the Bush is still on the way), and one of those (the Ford) really shouldn't be active right now given how far extended its deployment has been. There's 11 destroyers in the region, with more presumably on the way with the Bush - well, the US has 78 total destroyers, but a bunch of those are in maintenance at any given point, so let's say around there's 55-ish active ones - that's a fifth of the active destroyer fleet, with more to come, just in this one location.

And again, forcing the development of an entire parallel shipping system outside of your control is difficult to interpret as a win for the empire.

his and the agencies interest are to downplay any intelligent plans for imperialism now and into the future. And not the deep part of the CIA either. Lots of libs and centrists in the CIA who only see the above board parts not the permanent state part which would be responsible for this kind of planning

This pattern of American-5D-chessism is really starting to get pretty weird. Certainly, we shouldn't underestimate the empire and dismiss them as washed - clearly they can still wield some degree of military might and coercive power - but the repeated insistence that their obviously idiotic behavior must totally be part of some kayfabe scheme to pretend to be a decaying flailing empire, while the real intelligent deep state is totally still running long-term plans underneath, I do not see as being backed up by any evidence, and I feel is also severely ignorant of how large organizations actually work, assigning a level of coherence to them that simply doesn't exist. There are multitudes of different factions working plans of their own, and the Trump admin's gutting of the DoD and increasing staffing with private equity ghouls is hardly helping the competent ones.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 30 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

they are based on 1980s technology that can no longer be reproduced

:warhammer-40k:

it's really great how it doesn't even take us going through a massive interstellar apocalyptic civil war to end up like this, just a couple of decades of a slowdown in development in certain areas, not even an outright stop, and a whole bunch of shit becomes lostech

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 21 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

tbf, there is also a possible occam's razor explanation of there just being an increase in industrial accidents due to an increase in workload - oil refineries generally don't run at full utilization (https://www.afpm.org/newsroom/blog/refinery-utilization-101-other-half-capacity-story), but it could be that they're being made to do so now due to the desperate oil supply situation, which would predictably lead to accidents due to workers being overworked and maintenance being delayed

similarly with all the accidents among Western military production facilities, while they could be the result of a Russian sabotage campaign against the industry supplying Ukraine, it's also perfectly possible that the companies making workers come in for extra shifts in order to scale up production is leading to exhausted workers making more mistakes, a well-observed phenomenon (https://www.osha.gov/worker-fatigue/hazards)

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 38 points 14 hours ago

the Americans actually specifically pulled a bunch of shit to prevent that from happening in Argentina (technically with the JF-17 rather than the J-10, but still a Chinese plane) and getting them to buy F-16s (that were supposed to go to Ukraine originally), https://hexbear.net/post/6148937/6504631

except this kind of scheme is kind of predicated on the Americans actually delivering some fucking planes - eventually, people are just going to start buying Chinese because there's literally nothing else on the market

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 64 points 15 hours ago

https://archive.ph/2a4Rg

U.S. Ambassador Threatens Peru After Lima Delays F-16 Fighter Jet Deal

U.S. Ambassador to Peru Bernie Navarro issued a direct threat to the Peruvian government Friday, vowing Washington would use “all available tools” if it deems Lima is negotiating in bad faith over the suspension of a multi-billion-dollar F-16 fighter jet purchase.

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Navarro, representing the Trump Administration, reacted sharply on the social media platform X after interim President José María Balcázar announced the final decision on the $3.5 billion fleet renewal would be deferred to the next government taking office July 28. Balcázar argued the financial commitment constituted excessive national debt for a transitional administration. “I will use all available tools to protect and promote the prosperity and security of our country,” Navarro posted.

The controversy stems from Peru’s plan to replace its aging fleet of French Mirage 2000 and Russian MIG-29 jets with 24 new aircraft. While Balcázar previously indicated a preference for the U.S.-made F-16 Block 70, he clarified Friday that no contract has been signed and no funds have been disbursed. The cost of the proposed acquisition exceeds the budget originally approved by the Peruvian Parliament. The negotiations, driven by former Prime Minister Ernesto Álvarez and Foreign Minister Hugo de Zela, are part of a broader deepening of U.S.-Peru defense ties. In February, De Zela announced Peru’s designation as a Major Non-NATO Ally, a status conferring specific U.S. military assistance. The bilateral agenda also includes the construction of a $1.5 billion naval base in the port of Callao, to be built by U.S. military personnel and financed by the Peruvian state. Balcázar reiterated that with the presidential transition imminent, a decision of such fiscal magnitude should be left to an administration with a fresh electoral mandate and full democratic legitimacy.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 76 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago)

https://xcancel.com/Coinvo/status/2046136793603694749

UAE has told the U.S. that if they run out of dollars, they'll be forced to trade oil in Chinese yuan.

https://archive.ph/2criR

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 119 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago)

https://xcancel.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2046204529897611573

The US Government has begun refunding up to $166 billion in tariffs charged under President Trump after the Supreme Court ruled the policy unlawful. Beginning today, businesses can file claims through a new customs system. Over 330,000 importers across 53 million shipments are expected to be eligible. Once approved, refunds plus interest will be paid within 60 to 90 days.

https://xcancel.com/bjack129903/status/2046213608070328823

Businesses that already passed the higher costs to consumers are now getting big refunds with interest, while regular people who paid more get nothing 🤡

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 84 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago)

https://xcancel.com/WallStreetApes/status/2046204738681597988

Our roads in America are crumbling. A huge 8 foot by 4 foot hole is found on the I-64 into Illinois. It’s on a bridge, the driver almost hits it. He walks over and looks down the hole, you can see the road way below. He quickly leaves fearing he may fall through. The pavement crumbled, leaving only the steel grid support structure visible. I looked more into this and Illinois Department of Transportation did covered it with a steel plate as a temporary fix until it’s repaired.

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2046103711731290112/vid/avc1/1080x1750/M1BKTaqStLpBIaRy.mp4

what do americans even have anymore? no healthcare, no infrastructure, no borgar... guess there's copious amounts of online gambling?

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 70 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

https://xcancel.com/MerruX/status/2045889767531848125

50+ Iranian Speed Boats or Smugglers Crossing the Strait of Hormuz today. I have never seen this many at the same time. Have they started Mining the Deeper parts of the crossing in Omani Waters? This may be due to multiple ships crossing and not paying tolls to Iran.. Including 4 cruise ships. Last time this many fast boats were out. It was confirmed Iran had mined the strait....

There are 50+ boats here. Many are likely fisherman. Hard to say who is fishing Tuna, Smuggler, or IRGC.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 66 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

the "arsenal of democracy" when you ask them for some guns (after they specifically told you to buy FROM THEM!) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-officials-tell-european-countries-expect-weapons-delivery-delays-sources-say-2026-04-16/ (Reuters unfortunately seems immune to archivers)

US to delay weapons deliveries to some European countries due to Iran war, sources say

  • Delays affect Baltic and Scandinavian countries, sources say
  • European officials say delays undermine their defense readiness
  • US has cited need for weapons in Middle East

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U.S. officials have informed some European counterparts that some previously contracted weapons deliveries are likely to be delayed ‌as the Iran war continues to draw on weapons stocks, five sources familiar with the matter said. The delays underline the degree to which the war against Iran ... has begun to stretch U.S. supplies of some critical weaponry and ammunition. The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity ​as the communications were not public, said several European countries will be affected, including in the Baltic region and in ​Scandinavia. Some of the weapons in question were purchased by European countries under the Foreign Military Sales program, or ⁠FMS, but have not yet been delivered, the sources added. Those deliveries will likely be delayed, U.S. officials told European officials in bilateral ​messages in recent days, the sources said. On Friday, the defence ministries of Estonia and Lithuania told Reuters the U.S. has informed their countries of possible ​delays in the delivery of U.S. military equipment because of the Iran war.

The White House and the State Department referred queries to the Pentagon. "America’s military is the most powerful in the world, and we will ensure that U.S. forces and those of our allies and partners have what they need to fight and ​win," a Pentagon spokesperson said. "For operational security reasons, we will not comment on any specific allied or partner requirements or ongoing efforts to ​support them." European officials complain the delays are putting them in a difficult position. Under the FMS program, foreign countries purchase U.S.-made weapons with the logistical assistance and ‌consent of ⁠the U.S. government. Washington has pushed European NATO partners to purchase more U.S.-made materiel under President Donald Trump, including through the FMS program, as part of a bid to shift the responsibility for Europe's conventional defense away from the U.S. and onto European partners. But such weapons deliveries are often delayed, causing frustration in European capitals, where some officials are increasingly looking at weapons systems made within Europe.

U.S. officials say the weapons ​are needed for the war in ​the Middle East, and they ⁠fault European nations for not helping the U.S. and Israel open the Strait of Hormuz. Even before the Iran war, the U.S. had already drawn down billions of dollars' worth of weapons stockpiles, including artillery systems, ​ammunition and anti-tank missiles since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and Israel began military operations in Gaza ​in late 2023. Since ⁠the start of the Iran campaign, Tehran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf countries. Most have been intercepted, including with the PAC-3 Patriot missile interceptors that, for example, Ukraine relies on to defend its energy and military infrastructure from ballistic missiles. The sources spoke on the ⁠condition that ​the names of some of the countries affected be withheld. Some share a border ​with Russia and, as such, the cadence of weapons deliveries can be considered sensitive defense information. The delayed weaponry includes various kinds of ammunition, including munitions that can be used ​for both offensive and defensive purposes, the sources said.

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fallout (hexbear.net)
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aside from the great drawing, I really like all the cool little lore tidbits the author thinks through for how the city would have developed historically

"now there's sheep grazing on an unfinished street network that no-one wants to pay to maintain" stonks-down

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Tervell

joined 5 years ago