[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 16 hours ago

What a ridiculous position to hold, and my god the brainworms you must have based on your exchange with @yogthos@lemmygrad.ml

Russia actively responds to threats and has been doing so for quite some time. First, it took Crimea. Then it sent lethal support to the Donbas. Then it sent mercenaries into a bunch of countries in North Africa fighting against the West. Then it launched an SMO to militarize the border with Ukraine. Then it attacked Western Ukrainian infrastructure. Then it built an Africa Corps. Then it created economic alternatives to the West. Then it materially supported the West's adversaries. Then it made a change to its nuclear protocol. Then it launched an IRBM.

Russia responding to Western salami slicing with its own salami slicing. Just as the NATO escalations are nuanced, so are Russia's responses. NATO countries still live in peace because they have not declared war on Russia yet. Every time they make another thin slice of the salami, Russia finds a way to respond that is just as thin. However, Russia launched the capture of Crimea and no one could stop it. Russia launched the SMO to secure the Ukranian border and no one could stop. Russia worked to support decoupling of Africa from the West and no one has been able to stop it. Russia is working with partners to work around Western economic dominance and sanctions and no one can stop it.

The Russian military has not made many mistakes and it has not been strategically inactive. From this, we have to conclude that Russia understands its own limits, and I don't think anyone, especially Russia, believes they can or need to fight all of Europe. Likewise, I think Russia is aware, as NATO is aware, there is no way NATO could defeat Russia. The risk, therefore, is that NATO chooses to engage Russia in long-term war of attrition, and that risk is very very real. Russia's strategic imperatives are therefore 1) to not become encircled, 2) to maintain counter-intelligence supremacy, and 3) to avoid a protracted war of attrition with NATO.

  1. is why Russia took Crimea and subsequently invaded Ukraine
  2. is why Russia is being judicious with deploying its technology and why it is operating in Africa
  3. is why Russia is supporting the opening of additional fronts in Africa, building material support with military powers aligned against the West, building economic alternatives to the West, and most importantly, not giving the West sufficient casus belli to launch an all out war of attrition

You're requirement that for Putin to be strong he must be irrational is ridiculous.

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 16 hours ago

Unfortunately semantics are part of this whole international system problem

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 1 day ago

Ukraine is free to determine that NK, China, and Iran are all parties to the war due to their material support of the Russian operation. Ukraine can decide to declare war against those countries. They can go and prosecute that war, if they so choose.

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 1 day ago

Russia attacked Ukraine because of threats to Russian national security. The "legal framework" or "rules based order" that allowed NATO countries to create those threats to Russia created the conditions under which Russia had two choices - follow the rules exactly and let their belligerent opponents (the North Atlantic empire) continue to build up the threat level, or break the rules and protect itself.

This is why for years the conversation around Russia has been a debate between people who say a security framework must guarantee security for all, on the one side, and on the other side, people who said we only need to guarantee our security and we can threaten the security of others and they can't do anything about it.

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 1 day ago

ATACMS relies on targeting data that can only be obtained from NATO sources as Ukraine doesn't have its own satellite and airborne recon platform. You could give ATACMS to Ukraine and they could only use it in short ranges because they don't have the data they need to target deep into Russia. That means NATO is literally providing everything except the button pusher - they are providing the missiles, the launchers, the trainings, the satellites, the spy planes, the data infrastructure, the data itself. Ukraine pushes the button.

This is funamdentally different than using a bullet made in one country to kill a person in another country.

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 1 day ago

And got chewed up for it

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 1 day ago

The USSR was a hegemon back then. So it could engage in "symmetrical" proxy wars. This is a new situation, I think, where the USA, UK, and France able to act through far more proxies than either Russia or China can.

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 15 points 1 day ago

A one-sided proxy world war. Fucking wild

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 1 day ago

I'll challenge that last point. I think Putin is fully committed to bringing an end to American hegemony, and that means the best move is to respond in a way that causes the West to commit more resources in more fronts in ways that continues to erode the stability of Western relationships domestically and globally.

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 2 days ago

Yeah, I think the risk is too high to the Russian people. Launching a missile at that distance opens up all of Russia for retaliation from a large number of USA bases and naval launch systems. Further, I'm not sure it's possible to determine if such a missile is nuclear tipped or not, possibly triggering a whole mess of MAD protocols.

I think, like Ho, bin Laden, and Xi, Putin is actively engaged in bleeding the empire out and it's presently working with minimal risk to the Russian and Chinese people. I think the continued expansion of China economically and maintaining and expanding the quagmires that the empire is in will lead to greater results in the near term, especially since doing so will continue to increase unrest in the West, whereas a direct attack would likely galvanized the population.

Better to let the empire continue to fight smaller battles on multiple fronts far away from home. At least this is what it seems like is happening

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 6 points 2 days ago

Ukrainians pushing the button is still a proxy, and the legal/political doctrines are still ambiguous because of it

[-] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 6 points 2 days ago

What Russia did was respond.

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submitted 3 months ago by freagle@lemmygrad.ml to c/worldnews@lemmy.ml
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submitted 10 months ago by freagle@lemmygrad.ml to c/politics@lemmy.ml

The UK arresting an average of 9 people a day. Meanwhile, arrests in Russia are below 500 each year, sometimes far below.

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Using the web client in Firefox, I cannot seem to expand comments below a certain level. Clicking "3 more comments ->" just spins. Any ideas?

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This feels like an op to me. The timing is uncanny. If this story develops, I predict some escalation of current conflicts with some advanced weaponry (chemical, biological, nuclear, energy, space-based, etc) and the alien story to be used as cover.

Alternatively, it's a continuation of reactionary mobilization propaganda. Thought?

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freagle

joined 2 years ago