some comments by the Polish osint guy from yesterday...

About Iranian drones... Iran sold Russia the license and documentation for producing the Shahed 136. Russia paid Iran in gold. The first 1000 were delivered by Iran, Russia also builds them in a factory cluster in Alabuga/Yelabuga. When Russia does drone attacks on Ukraine they use 300-500 for a single operation. Russia uses around 100 a day. Iran used around 500 drones in 12 days and 99% of them were shot down. Some were shot down by US missiles which were supposed to be going to Ukraine but were diverted to US bases in West Asia instead. Jordan agreed for its airspace to be used. Syria didn't but Israel didn't care and flew AH-64 Apache helicopters and F-16 Sufa jets over the airspace to shoot the drones down. The fact that Iranian drones didn't play a larger role in the conflict is puzzling. One explanation is Iran was expecting a long war of attrition against US military bases in the region so they were saving them for after the US officially entered the war. Another theory is Israel destroyed them before they could be used. It's also possible Iran didn't have many to begin with because they didn't think they would be needed. When they did strikes on Saudi targets in the past they only used 3 or 4 per operation (I guess he's talking about 2019 here... looking around a bit and it seems that was Yemen launching them though, not Iran)

About the Iranian airforce... The Iranian airforce might not be modern but since the country is large and mountainous they should still have been able to orchestrate some ambush attacks in valleys and by flying close to the earth (similar to North Vietnamese MiG-21 attacks on US forces during the Vietnam war). There were no air battles during these 12 days. There is some footage of Iranian F-4 phantoms flying by, but not much else. Iranian airport runways were damaged, and 10-12 Iranian F-14s were also damaged while on the ground. Also since most of the Iranian airforce planes are old they rely more on coordination with on-the-ground operators/air command, which in turn relies on long range radio-location stations to get info about where the enemy is and directs the Iranian planes where to ambush the enemy. A lot of that on-the-ground infrastructure was damaged or destroyed by Israeli commandos so the pilots were left in a fog without guidance from the ground. Iran's radio-location stations are also dated technologically so they didn't detect the F-35s, which have modern stealth tech.

About Iranian ballistic missiles... Around 4-7% Iranian missiles hit their target in the beginning, the rate increased to 35% and then 50% toward the end of the war, while the missile count went down to 20 per attack, and they were launched every second day. If we average it across the 12 days it was around a 25% hit rate, even taking into account US support like THAADs, MIM-104 Patriots, SM-3s. Since each incoming missile requires a few attempts to shoot down, Israel was starting to run out of missiles fast and some experts say they had enough left for 2 or 3 more days. Iran entered the war with 2000 mid-range (1300-2000km) ballistic missiles, used around 600, around 300 were destroyed/disabled/blocked, so they still had around 800-1000 left. Israel damaged the entrances to Iran's missile launch sites but attempts were made to re-open them during the war.

While 65% of Iranian anti-air was destroyed, footage of Israeli F-15s and F-16s shows them carrying 3 or 4 fuel tanks each, so that's 70-80% of the load occupied by fuel. It's a long flight to Iran. They were usually carrying maneuvering missiles like Delilah used for precision strikes.

Israel did more damage to Iran overall but if the war was going well for them they wouldn't have agreed to a ceasefire/pause. Western media and doctors in Israel are reporting obsessive censorship around damaged targets so that suggests they got hit hard and are trying to hide it. None of the parties in the war felt like they were winning so they decided it's better to stop for now.

I heard a new claim about Mao today and I have no idea what this person is talking about, but they were saying they didn't like him bc he racialized China. Where does this bogus claim come from.

Novara media had some peace studies professor on, and that guy (as well as interviewer) somehow think Iran has/had a chance to avoid a war (yes that's basically how he phrased it) if they just keep quiet and don't respond. How tf can you study this your whole life and think this whole escalation ladder wasn't gamed out by a bunch of nerds, and that the US is following a plan here.

It's so blatant in this instance especially, what with the US clearly constantly choosing to provoke an escalation and using diplomacy just as cover for sneak attacks. Obviously they're not here to do a one-off bombing raid. If Iran doesn't respond they'll poke them more, and if they still don't respond they'll just cook up some narrative how they're weak and this proves that regime change is just behind the ~~corner~~ next bombing run and why let this chance slip through our fingers, and how to be absolutely sure that Iran can't get the bomb, regime change is definitely necessary, or maybe they'll say they didn't actually destroy Iran's nuclear program and they're definitely making a bomb right now under a children's hospital or whatever they can come up with.

The only reason why Iran would respond cautiously is to make the US look bad, but at this point how much of difference does that make? People have already made up their mind, the spin doctors are already spinning, and they'll ignore international and public opinion as best they can like they always do anyway.

Update on Fordow. Israel went back and bombed the entrances and exits, and access roads, effectively entombing the facility. Even if the 12 GBU-57 MOPs didn't do the damage, the facility is entombed when combined with Iran filling the other entrances and exits with soil. The US did similar at Isfahan with Tomahawk land attack missiles.

Israel will likely seek a ceasefire agreement that keeps these facilities entombed, permanently, especially in the case of Isfahan where the underground facilities were not directly attacked, just the entrances, exits, and above ground facilities. There have been two big indications from Israeli sources leaning in this direction. First, this from Barak David at Axios. I'll quote the key passage:

Two Israeli officials also claimed that intelligence shows Iran's stockpile of 60% and 20% enriched uranium is now buried beneath rubble at Isfahan and Fordow — and it's unclear whether Iran will be able to recover it in the near future.

Then this statement from the Israeli damage assessment, posted by Trump:

This achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material.

Met police acting like the bunch of power-tripping r*pe-defending pig-thugs they are rn in Trafalgar Square, snatching people for peacefully protesting. Scum!

Israeli doomers do make it funnier

“The main problem is that the Iranians are going to build a much larger missile industry... Everyone sees how large salvos work.

It's not nuclear, it's much harder to stop it without entering a war of attrition.

Ceasefire shit. They sold us out and in the future we'll be paid back with interest.“

“They're taking us back to the old days of two-week operations and then a ceasefire.”

“It has to be said, they took us for a ride.”

BBC: MI6 distances its new chief from Nazi grandfather standard

: "Stupid AOC, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the “dumbest” people in Congress, is now calling for my Impeachment, despite the fact that the Crooked and Corrupt Democrats have already done that twice before. The reason for her “rantings” is all of the Victories that the U.S.A. has had under the Trump Administration. The Democrats aren’t used to WINNING, and she can’t stand the concept of our Country being successful again. When we examine her Test Scores, we will find out that she is NOT qualified for office but, nevertheless, far more qualified than Crockett, who is a seriously Low IQ individual, or Ilhan Omar, who does nothing but complain about our Country, yet the Failed Country that she comes from doesn’t have a Government, is drenched in Crime and Poverty, and is rated one of the WORST in the World, if it’s even rated at all. How dare “The Mouse” tells us how to run the United States of America! We’re just now coming back from that Radical Left experiment with Sleepy Joe, Kamala, and “THE AUTOPEN,” in charge. What a disaster it was! AOC should be forced to take the Cognitive Test that I just completed at Walter Reed Medical Center, as part of my Physical. As the Doctor in charge said, “President Trump ACED it,” meaning, I got every answer right. Instead of her constant complaining, Alexandria should go back home to Queens, where I was also brought up, and straighten out her filthy, disgusting, crime ridden streets, in the District she “represents,” and which she never goes to anymore. She better start worrying about her own Primary, before she thinks about beating our Great Palestinian Senator, Cryin’ Chuck Schumer, whose career is definitely on very thin ice! She and her Democrat friends have just hit the Lowest Poll Numbers in Congressional History, so go ahead and try Impeaching me, again, MAKE MY DAY!"

Another wave of ballistic missiles launched towards Israel.

Must say that it's a welcome change of pace for Israel to be on the receiving end of it's usual tactics.

Iran rolls worst ceasefire ever, asked to leave the Resistance

UK to buy 12 F-35A fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons

Downing Street says the purchase will be the ‘biggest strengthening of the UK’s nuclear posture in a generation’.

"This is an absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran. [Russia was] striving to provide assistance to the Iranian people," Putin said when meeting with Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister. Russia said that the irresponsible US decision violated the UN Charter.

According to Reuters, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wrote a letter to Putin in his own handwriting, asking for Russia's support against the US. Despite this, Putin is still reluctant and still prefers the path of the UN and dialog.

• Telegram

Hey, has Mandla Mandela been released from prison in Egypt and allowed to return to South Africa yet? Haven't heard any updates and searching news/results from up to a week ago turn up a blank.

It's not a mystery that the Nazi Apartheid regime has an axe to grind with anyone related to Nelson Mandela in particular, with an abduction/assassination plan even being underway last year prior to the cancellation of the 2024 Freedom Flotilla.

Looks like Iran fired off a bunch of old Qiam missiles (SCUD C derivatives) at the US military base Qatar. I honestly thought these missiles were out of service, which is why I didn't include them in my previous post . 14 missiles for the 14 GBU-57 bombs dropped on the nuclear facilities, a very symbolic attack/response/retaliation. The old missiles with no capability to maneuver, fired at a single target in a country with over a dozen Patriot batteries (11 Qatari batteries and multiple US military batteries) explain the high interception rate. Again, a very lobsided exchange in favour of the USA, like 2020. Honestly it's an even weaker response than Iran's 2020 response to the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, which at least made use of the more modern missiles alongside the Qiam, and did some serious damage, assuming that there are no more US or Iranian responses.

Iran’s Mehr News, a state-affiliated outlet, has dismissed Trump’s ceasefire announcement as fiction—calling it the delusion of a “madman” made while Israel was actively bombing Iranian territory.

‘NATO Has No Business in Ukraine’, Hungarian PM Orban States - Telesur English

The DPRK undergoes testing for their new AEW&C aircraft, based on a modified Il-76 model. It appears that it will be online shortly. It has been under development for around 2 years.

We're back to business as usual in the Israeli pokemon go groups

Has Trump said "Mamdani" yet?

heard from family in Irbid jordan missiles seem to be headed towards the zionist entity rn

also found out multiple missiles have fallen in irbid near my familys houses and injured multiple ppl. curse jordan for shooting missiles down over their own people

Edit: some missiles may have been intercepted, cousin said at least 2 fell in his neighborhood

15 second clip my cousin sent of what i think is interception attempts out of his bedroom window, footage over Irbid Jordan about 15 min ago:

He’s still got it folks

Canadian PM Mark Carney says what’s needed is a “Zionist Palestinian state” - Video

Seeing several polls saying Polish support for Ukraine joining EU has dropped significantly. Like 85% to 35%. Hungary 95% are opposed to them joining EU

❌striking 10 billion intel fab

✔ striking some residential building

it's like every enemy of usa is hit with dumbfuck beam, same with russia

In case you’re wondering how Palestinians are taking the news, here are some reactions to the ceasefire

Below is the announcement in a Jenin-based telegram group

“We were given the choice between war and shame, and we chose shame, and war will be imposed on us in the end...”

https://t.me/jeniincamp/112159

“The Arabs stopped the war on Iran, but they didn't stop the war on Iraq, nor did they stop the massacre in Gaza, nor did they deter the butcher of Syria.

Do you now realize how dwarves they are?

What cheap people are cheering for these regimes?”

https://t.me/jeniincamp/112165

“Don't forget your men in Gaza, they are still slaughtering the children of Zion morning and night. May God bless you, O soldiers of Al-Qassam, and may God be pleased with you and satisfy you.“

https://t.me/jeniincamp/112166

The Israelis are now lying like Trump.

NYT

Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the chief of staff of the Israeli military, said the damage caused to Iran’s nuclear program in 12 days of war was “not localized, but systemic.” In a video statement on Wednesday, Zamir said that Israel has determined that “Iran’s nuclear project suffered a severe, extensive, and deep blow, and was set back by years.” He also said Israel’s operations in Iran included those of “commando forces on the ground, who operated covertly deep inside enemy territory to secure operational freedom.”

And I'd really like to hear how the Israelis successfully bombed knowledge.

Prior to the most recent aid massacre:

“A source in the resistance security in Gaza: The Arrow unit and a force from the investigation department neutralized 17 flour thieves and distributed all quantities to people for free near Bani Suhaila roundabout, Al-Bahr Street, and Al-Saniya roundabout. The thieves are threatened with a severe punishment.”

https://t.me/jeniincamp/112468

I've seen a few people say that closing the Straight of Hormuz would possibly be a bigger issue for China than it would be for the US, or at least that it would be strongly against China's economic interests for that to happen. My question then: isn't it especially important for China to keep their ally in power and prevent pro-US regime change so that the US-western block couldn't deliberately close the Straight to harm them in economic warfare?

If I understand correctly from what I've read throughout this thread, Iran hasn't shown proper urgency in asking China for weapons (in comparison with Pakistan's relationship with China, for example), but I'm surprised China hasn't urged them more? Perhaps they have privately and Iran's leadership was doofy enough to actively refuse them (I could certainly buy it at this point), but it seems like China would benefit from chatting them up again after all this and talking them into being smart before they end up in western hands.

Part of a Fattah-1 booster stage landed in Israel this afternoon or morning.

If Iran continues ballistic missile attacks on Israel, we will see a lot more of these.

anybody have news on the members of Madleen? I remember reading that most of its members were deported, but I feel like that story was dropped and forgotten about before everyone was released. Is there any news on whether there are still members being held hostage by israel?

Today was the first time I thought of it in a few weeks

edit: As of ~ 1 week ago, everyone was free, as per Omar Faiad, who was part of the flotilla