Honestly I am more surprised that Russia hasn't been more proactive already in striking "western interests", but let's hope something comes of this. I am wondering where exactly the Russians plan to strike, if at all. Within Europe? Or the middle east? Or maybe even in Africa?
Putin knows that striking a "western interests" could easily spiral out of control. Russians know first hand what an existential war entails, it's nothing to be taken lightly. Amerikkkans have an entirely different view of world wars, they've never experienced a world war fought on their own soil. They've always been safe on their homeland and in recent times they can even view the action live streamed like its a video game. Even current US soldiers don't really know what a war against a peer competitor is really like. Plenty of American "volunteers" to Ukraine can't believe that fighting Russia is not the same as Irag.
Probably in Western Ukraine. Russia does not have the capability to strike anywhere in the world whenever they want (they don’t have 800 bases on every continent)
Hi. I understand why you said what you said because your talking about a conventional air strike, but i feel to need to remind you that Russia most certainly does have the ability to strike anywhere on the world whenever they want. They have thousands if ICBMs which are capable of hitting any location on earth, and impossible to block reliably.
It's important we remember this because the west like to act as though them poking Russia has no real potential consequences, and it could literally end the world if they take it too far.
Yes you are right about ICBMs. I was talking in the context of conventional strikes.
I think something people forget too is while ICBMs are largely thought of as nuclear weapons there no reason they HAVE to be. The same delivery systems could be used for conventional weapons it just usually isnt worth the cost. But it might be for extremely tactically important targets that are far enough away. Especially if you already have thousands of them like Russia does.
The problem is that you would have no way of knowing if it’s a nuclear strike or not. ICBMs will trigger MAD even if they are actually non nuclear.
I get why you might think that, but that same argument can be made about the missiles Ukraine has been shooting into Russia that were provided by the US. They're perfectly capable of carrying a nuke, and Russia would have no way to know until it hits. So from Russia's perspective we are already in the realm of playing with MAD. They have no reason not to do the same thing.
Also edit to add even IF it was confirmed to be a nuke Russa was launching if they target somewhere like Poland for example it's very unlikely the US would launch their own nukes in that case. They're not gonna risk the US mainland to save Poland. So when it comes to hitting non-nuclear NATO nations with ICBMs using conventional payloads its really just up to Russia if they want to try. MAD doesn't work at all in that case.
yeah you could maybe do one that's too small to be a nuke but at that point how much damage is it gonna do and you're putting a shitload of trust in everyone else to identify that it can't be a nuke
An non-nuclear ICBM strike would effectively destroy MAD since you can't determine what is and isn't a nuclear strike. Do a couple conventional salvos, then make one of them nuclear. Take out two legs of the triad then focus on defending against the subs in a retaliation strike.
Exactly, there's a reason that civilian space agencies worldwide are very careful about notifying other governments about launch schedules and planned trajectories.
See the use of the Hazel IRBM in Ukraine, back in November of '24
Thanks isntreal for giving them the idea to launch "preemptive strikes"
And to every single Western country for legitimizing it
This is a good thing, and the inevitable result of the west's constant provocations and salami-slicing, encroaching tactics, IMO. At some point humanity has to fight back, even if it draws us closer to the brink of MAD- the ones responsible are the western imperialists, after all. And when and if they do manage to fully and properly "pivot to Asia" I hope China ups the ante like this as well.
My honest belief here is this- the world will never know peace, until the collective west understands fully and thoroughly the full extent of MAD (not necessarily by invoking it, but by facing and being limited by the same threats they continue to hold over the rest of humanity). If the west had suffered even 1/1000000th of what they have done- even in just the past decade, nevermind the past 500+ years- to the global south, or even just to those powers that can and should defend themselves like Russia, China, India, etc... we would already have triggered MAD 1000 times over. At some point it has to be enough, and those nations with the means of making it so should ensure it. Each Russian life is as valuable, if not moreso, than that of those who support the west- same goes with the lives of Palestinians, Chinese, Indians, all Asians and Africans and Latin Americans and all those even in the west who stand against imperialism, being as valuable if not moreso than that of those who stand for the empire. And the only way the west will ever learn that is by the cold hard reality that they cannot make the same favorable and deeply inequitable exchange, that they have for hundreds of years, any more.
Can it even be called a "pre-emptive strike," when the western imperialist regimes have been striking Russia (and indeed, all of the rest of humanity as well as the working masses and all non-white and indigenous peoples including in the west) constantly with impunity for centuries? I don't think so.
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