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submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is of Assad and his family.


After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.

Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah's resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria's collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like "this is bad" and "Assad is fucking up"; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.

There is still too much that we don't know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah's assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.

What is certain is that Assad's time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 52 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Perfidious Albion boasts about successful testing of directed energy weapons for anti-drone warfare mounted on a Wolfhound (6 wheel vehicle).

https://archive.is/CwrIc

I assume it uses a lot of juice. Probably still vulnerable to attack if the drone flies very low. Or if there are multiple drones it's probably fucked?

[-] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 52 points 1 week ago

From an intervew with Conservative Party leader today on The Spectator:

"Her Nigerian heritage often comes up in conversations about her straight-talking style. But she says this misses the point. ‘I find it interesting that everybody defines me as being Nigerian. I identify less with the country than with the specific ethnicity [Yoruba]. That’s what I really am. I have nothing in common with the people from the north of the country, the Boko Haram where the Islamism is, those were our ethnic enemies and yet you end up being lumped in with those people.’"

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[-] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 52 points 1 week ago

A significant portion of Russian industrial enterprises intend to slow down investments in production development in 2025 in the context of uncertainty of the current monetary policy, said Alexander Murychev, Vice President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.

"In the real sector of the economy, in industry, the profit is also good [by the end of 2024] - more than 40 trillion rubles. But, nevertheless, they are reluctant to use this profit in the interests of investment development, taking into account quite understandable reasons: they do not have an understanding, clear forecasts, what will happen to the economy in six months, what will happen to the monetary policy in a year," Murychev said.

He clarified that industrialists are not yet interested in investing in medium-term projects, and even more so, in long-term ones.

"If we talk about the measurements that we take, they show that they [industrial enterprises] are ready - more than half of our large industrial enterprises are ready to continue their investment activities, but only after 2025, when there will be some certainty in monetary policy and resources will be more accessible," added the deputy head of the RSPP.

Slowing investment => no growth in output => acceleration of inflation.

The very high interest rates from the Central Bank finally did it in. Government subsidies since 2022 (actually since 2020 if you include Covid) that had been so successful in stimulating the economy have dried up. The libs have won.

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[-] sempersigh@hexbear.net 51 points 1 week ago
[-] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 51 points 1 week ago

This is some of the worst shit I’ve ever seen. Going to go touch grass, I recommend you all do the same

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[-] borschtisgarbo@lemmygrad.ml 51 points 1 week ago

Saw a gravely injured, unarmed SDF fighter be executed by some SNA thugs. Very gruesome shit going on now

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[-] companero@hexbear.net 51 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1hbtgt1/ru_pov_multiple_perspectives_on_ukrainian_atacms/

https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1hbt89e/ru_pov_remains_of_an_atacms_missile_near_the/

There was another strike this morning against Russia proper with US-provided ATACMS missiles. This time in Taganrog in the Rostov region (nowhere near Kursk).

https://t.me/kalibrated/16617

Russian MoD confirmed it and there are also casualties at the site struck.

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[-] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 51 points 1 week ago

One obvious part of the Syrian government's collapse, to anyone with half a brain, is that it was not domestic rebels doing it on their own. An organization chased out of 95% of the country does not just suddenly overthrow the state without weapons and troops and intel from at least one larger country and regional or great power.

A slightly less obvious takeaway is that, contrary to the perennial allegations that "they slaughtered their own people and wrecked their country", all the constituents of the dominant alliance decided that it was not worth it to make the civil war drag on*. Hezbollah, Iran, Russia, and finally the SAA itself all decided that rather than destroying more land and lives, it was more worthwhile to cut losses and retreat. It really doesn't fit the picture if "brutal dictator and his foreign allies" to have chosen to turn over the country rather than to sacrifice more of it.

*Or at least, not this iteration of the civil war. No one can say what the next 5-10 years will look like.

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[-] plinky@hexbear.net 51 points 1 week ago

Saudis will host world cup

Very nice, good thing i stopped watching football

[-] borschtisgarbo@lemmygrad.ml 51 points 1 week ago

Is HTS selectively releasing people from prison or are they just literally letting everybody out?

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[-] Torenico@hexbear.net 50 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Something that we are about to see is the effective "demobilization" of the SAA and a "de-Ba'athification" of various armed formations. Despite the mix of frustration, incompetence and orders to stand down, the SAA still kinda exists while it's being transformed into something else, but I still wonder what is going to happen with it's remaining pro-Assad elements, because I'm sure as fuck there are still people right now in the defunct SAA that are very pissed off about this whole thing.

Of course we know Assad's government had various regular and irregular formations that were, on average, more loyal to them than the standard SAA units. Formations like "Tiger Forces" (which ended up being the only capable unit in the entire SAA it seems judging by the fact they were one of the fews that stood up for the past two weeks), Liwa al Quds (which I think still existed up until now? That is a somewhat irregular formation of syrian palestinians that once saw heavy action in Aleppo years ago) and the whole array of militias under the umbrella of the National Defense Forces, that during the earlier days of the war saw them fill in the roles of the regular SAA (back when they had a shitton of defections). Of course there is the Republican Guard as well, whose loyalty can come and go.

We know what happened in Iraq. A lot of former Republican Guard and Ba'ath soldiers and officials simply went underground when the US occupied the country and ransacked the country, some joined Ba'ath insurgents while others formed new Islamist formations. Others, of course, joined up with the US and formed the new Iraqi Army. The difference is that the Iraqi Army, and especially the Republican Guard, were relentlessly destroyed in battle while the SAA kinda wasn't, not to the same degree.

Of course these formations could create a broad Ba'ath insurgency of some kind or they could just dissolve into numerous factions with varying loyalties and ideologies if you will, effectively ending Ba'athism in Syria (whatever it's left of it anyways). It'll depend on Jolani's ability to summon them in a new government too, if he's willing to "pardon" them or he'll crack down on them, who knows. We'll see I guess.

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[-] Chickpeas@hexbear.net 50 points 1 week ago

Not news per se but don't make adjudicator jokes while speaking to pharmacists. They think you mean taking them out. Not saying they're class enemies but they are very used to bullshit delays and negging customers.

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[-] parande@lemmy.ml 50 points 1 week ago
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Some Syria news for today.

At least 90,000 Syrian civilians, primarily religious minorities (from Homs, Hama, and Aleppo provinces), fled al-Queda “HTS” persecution to Lebanon: https://thecradle.co/articles/syrian-minorities-flee-to-lebanon-in-fear-of-extremists

Yesterday, protests broke out in Damascus against al-Queda “HTS” leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani: https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/12/12/917352.html

The Zionist invaders attacked the southern Syrian settlements of al-Hurriya, Rasem al-Ruwadi, Ruwaihinah, and Umm Batna: https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/12/12/738970/Syria--Quneitra-Israel-Golan-Heights-

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[-] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 50 points 1 week ago

Did not know that Damascus has so many different but similar names. For example, it's Dimashq in Arabic, Damask in Russian, Sham in Turkish, Damasko in Greek, Damishk in Hindi.

Such an old city, everyone knows it differently.

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 50 points 1 week ago

The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Imam Ali Khamenei, will make an address regarding 'developments in the region' on Wednesday, December 11.

The Iranian Foreign Minister regarding the next step in Syria: 'We support a political solution in Syria based on United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254, including: The immediate cessation of hostilities between all parties and a mechanism to monitor the ceasefire. The start of negotiations and a political process between all legitimate opposition parties in Syria, with the exception of recognized terrorist groups like HTS and ISIS. Free and fair national elections within 18 months and the right of the Syrian people to decide their own future.'

The last Iranian and Iranian-backed Shia fighters (mostly Fatemiyoun) will shortly leave Syria through the airport of Latakia, after making a last stand at Sayyeda Zainab Shrine, resisting for 4 hours against rebel forces despite being surrounded and outnumbered 11 to 1

Iranian FM Aragchi: Iran will continue support the resistance & Hezbollah. We’ve received guarantees in Syria that the embassy & consulate of Iran will be protected, and more importantly the shrines of Lady Sayyede Zainab & Hazrat Ruqyah will be protected & respected. The attack on the embassy this morning was not done by the actual groups but by bystanders for looting purposes. Iran’s position is to support the wishes of the Syrian people, but it is not easy to reach an agreement between all the different groups. The resistance may have setbacks or undergo changes, like losing dear figures in Lebanon for example, but resistance continues.

[-] sexywheat@hexbear.net 50 points 1 week ago

Anybody else find it odd that nobody managed to catch a video of the guy being arrested at the McDonalds? Everybody and their dog has a smart phone you'd think somebody would have caught that.

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[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 49 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

And the blame game commences:
https://xcancel.com/iQMidEastCentre/status/1865927168745697644

Assad shift in alliances during last year was kept a secret

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[-] batsforpeace@hexbear.net 49 points 1 week ago

checked what the osint guy I somewhat follow is posting..

  • Israel bombed Syrian anti-air systems, planes, drones, tanks, radars, helicopters, plane hangars, etc, across the country. Their statement said they used 350 planes and had 320 targets.
  • Israel sank the Syrian navy's 'Project 205' missile boats, leaving no active combat warships. They used Gabriel missiles fired from a Sa'ar 6-class German-made corvette (btw I see on natopedia it says the German government subsidized 1/3rd of the construction costs for these).
  • Apparently several Syrian scientists have been assassinated, some working on missile, drone, and other military technology.
  • All Syrian jails opened.
  • There's a video taken from a Russian military vehicle showing a long line of unarmed Syrian soldiers walking toward the border with Iraq. Syrian infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, weapons, and uniforms have been left behind in the desert.
  • Videos showing up of Jihadists killing people in Alawite villages. Also videos of Kurdish people getting killed and Kurdish women being abducted.
  • The Turks are releasing videos of Bayraktar TB2 targeting Kurdish military vehicles. While the Russians were in Syria they had an agreement with Turkey to patrol and uphold a demarcation line which gave the Kurds security from Turkish attacks.
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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 49 points 1 week ago

Israeli tanks have exited Quneitra Governorate, and have now reached Western Damascus Governorate. It could just be to secure a 'buffer zone' in Syria as Israel says. But Israel has long considered entering Lebanon through Syria, bypassing Hezbollah's main defense lines.

Israel's initial stated goal was to 'temporarily take control over the UN-supervised zone' in the Syrian Golan Heights, including Quneitra. However, they have since then moved past the 1974 'Line Bravo', and entered the Western Damascus Countryside. Their exact motives are currently unknown.

HTS-affiliated media: 'Jolani wants relations with all regional countries, Iran cannot be ignored as a regional player, and we can't afford to have them as an open enemy, despite the evil they have done.'

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[-] totalyNOTaPIRATE@hexbear.net 48 points 1 week ago

Time is a flat circle

"The US Central Command said its forces conducted dozens of airstrikes on Islamic State targets in central Syria on Sunday

In a statement, the Centcom said its strikes were aimed to ensure that the Islamic State does not take advantage of the current situation in Syria.

“Battle damage assessments are underway, and there are no indications of civilian casualties,” reads a statement by Centcom posted on X.

“There should be no doubt – we will not allow Isis to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” said Gen Michael Erik Kurilla.

“All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support Isis in any way,” Kurilla added."

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[-] CthulhusIntern@hexbear.net 48 points 1 week ago

What if the Adjuster just really doesn't like this Luigi guy and decided to kill two birds with one stone?

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[-] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 48 points 1 week ago

ToI journalist hypothesizing

[-] RaisedFistJoker@hexbear.net 48 points 1 week ago

every country in the world should look to north korea on how to deal with america's rabid dogs

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[-] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 48 points 1 week ago

Is there a good effortposts or something someone could point me towards about Syria? as of a week ago I thought it was a stable frozen conflict with the Syrian State in control of most of the country?

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[-] smokeppb@hexbear.net 48 points 1 week ago

From AryJeay on Telegram:

🇮🇷| Iranian FM Aragchi: Iran will continue support the resistance & Hezbollah


We’ve received guarantees in Syria that the embassy & consulate of Iran will be protected, and more importantly the shrines of Lady Sayyede Zainab & Hazrat Ruqyah will be protected & respected.

The attack on the embassy this morning was not done by the actual groups but by bystanders for looting purposes.

Iran’s position is to support the wishes of the Syrian people, but it is not easy to reach an agreement between all the different groups.

The resistance may have setbacks or undergo changes, like losing dear figures in Lebanon for example, but resistance continues.

@FotrosResistance


Looks like whatever happened in the embassy in Damascus, Iran isn't interested in making enemies with the new Syria and will seek to engage positively with whoever emerges as victor of the current clusterfuck.

Resistance against the entity will continue but it will be harder now for sure. I think there will need to be some humiliating peace deals signed right around Trump's time in office. If not there's a time limit now for how long Lebanon and Gaza can hold out.

"Or there will be hell to pay" - and it will be a hell Biden paved for him. Working hand-in-hand, never forget that.

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[-] kittin@hexbear.net 48 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Materialist posting time. Poke holes in my likely flawed analysis please:

Kurds - just want to grill, but it’s thanksgiving so that means grilling turkey

Turkey - protector and defender of the Turkmen, hates the Kurds

Iran - can’t do shit about it now, will focus on Iraq & seek some kind of detente with the caliphate.

Iraq - will drive closer to Iran in fear of the caliphate

The Caliphate - won big but learned from last time and will probably seek to consolidate. Will want to focus on northern Iraq but will be reactive for a time until they consolidate their big gains. They have a grudge against Russia here but the cia has a bounty against their leader while also supplying arms so let’s face it, these players are businessmen and will cut a deal with Russia.

Shias / Alawites / seculars / remnant Ba’athists - lost big and will just try to survive, goal one will be an autonomous Latakia. An autonomous Latakia is directly in the interests of everyone except the caliphate since the caliphate immediately becomes a threat to everyone else, and not directly against the interests of the caliphate so I expect an autonomous Latakia that is essentially a Russian protectorate.

Lebanon (excluding Hezbollah): can’t do shit even for itself right now, will ally with Latakia & Russia and balance-of-power Israel against Hezbollah.

Hezbollah: will have to bend the knee and accept the caliphate as a neighbor, will loosely ally with Lebanon and Latakia.

Russia: will cut any deal possible that preserves their naval base, likely taking the form of a Syrian confederation that preserves an autonomous Latakia and they’ll wash their hands of the rest of the place. Interestingly well placed to balance Turkey against Israel, and play a broker between the caliphate and Iran. Most interesting takeaway here is that Lebanon is pushed towards Russia, and Turkey and Russia need to align their interests (= Kurds get fucked, as is tradition.)

Russia well positioned to be the closest thing to a power broker in this game of thrones imo. Despite having clearly taken a side, their side clearly lost, and their interests are clear and directly understood so bygones will be bygones.

Israel: can’t conceivably occupy a major Syrian population center if they can’t pacify Gaza. The more land they seize, the more likely the caliphate targets them instead of Iraq. I expect a restrained land grab to create a buffer zone, nothing more.

USA: fucking wild card. It’s certainly possible the caliphate don’t deal with Russia, which is a key assumption that negates everything so that is probably want the USA wants.

EU: irrelevant

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this post was submitted on 08 Dec 2024
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