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submitted 1 month ago by jeffw@lemmy.world to c/technology@lemmy.world
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[-] Artyom@lemm.ee 38 points 1 month ago

Finance bros who run wall street are all idiots, so they designed a system where no matter how stupid they are, they're always right. If you get a bunch of finance bros in a room and give a really good sales pitch, your valuation can triple despite nothing real actually happening.

In the case of AI, even the foremost experts are uncertain about how useful AI is. Qualified people disagree and no AI based tool has really proved itself to be robust, but it is amazing at fooling people who are either dumb or willfully ignorant, so it's like crack cocaine to anyone who works on Wall Street.

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[-] JeeBaiChow@lemmy.world 27 points 1 month ago

Capitalism doesn't sell performance. It sell 'potential' and 'perceived gains'.

[-] einlander@lemmy.world 14 points 1 month ago

I sell my dates on my potential wealth and potential penis size. People need to get on the capitalism grindset.

[-] sp3tr4l@lemmy.zip 4 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

"Both my cock and my investment portfolio are well positioned to overperform both ongoing quarterly and year over year growth as compared to standard cocks and investment portfolios, should volatility continue to remain close to historical averages."

Breakdown of how this doesn't actually mean anything, because I'm autistic:

This doesn't actually mean anything.

"Well positioned to do X" just means 'could happen'.

It doesn't actually promise any outsized gains at all, it ascribes no likelihood to this scenario, it does not quantify anything, at all, and it even conditions the potential hypothetical gains on a the vaguely defined condition of volatility remaining 'close' to 'historical averages', again totally unquantified.

This would be dubious to expect to continue in perpetuity and without deviation, because both for the market and for people's interpersonal lives, the extremely normal pattern is that volatilty remains within 'normal' bounds for a while, but will also predictably have short but highly intense bursts from time to time.

So these entirely predictable volatility bursts break the condition.

... But to someone with less knowledge of or experience with both markets and relationships, it seems good that something is well positioned to exceed standard growth, it seems reasonable that things will stay close to historical averages, so the 'vibe' takeaway is positive, and the mentioned (potential but utterly without basis) outsized growth was both in the short term and enduring year over year!

Even though the actual content of what was said is literally nothing beyond jargon laden flim flam that has no ultimate literal meaning, nor legal liability.

[-] skulblaka@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 month ago

Hey, give credit where it's due.

Some people work quite hard to make sure their jargon laden flim flam has no ultimate literal meaning nor legal liability.

[-] seven_phone@lemmy.world 4 points 1 month ago

And women sell dates on their potential to do that thing that was discussed but then try to backtrack by pretending they thought it was a joke and didn't even bring a banana.

[-] ImplyingImplications@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 month ago

It's what we in the biz would refer to as a "grower", which is in contrast to a "shower".

[-] chonglibloodsport@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago

If you’re gonna sell dates you better be a grower! Dates don’t just grow themselves!

[-] TachyonTele@lemm.ee 2 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

"I have a great venture Idea for you Susan. What if, and hear me out, what if my penis was at least average size! I already have an investor lined up in the bedroom, you'd be crazy to pass on this opportunity"

[-] cupcakezealot@lemmy.blahaj.zone 16 points 1 month ago

if you're mad at this, don't look at how much xai is worth.

ai is basically just a pump and dump for rich people before the bubble bursts

[-] Realitaetsverlust@lemmy.zip 5 points 1 month ago

I'm really excited about your explanation how a pump and dump is going to work when openAI is not even publicly traded. So who's gonna pump and dump what exactly?

[-] Zetta@mander.xyz 4 points 1 month ago

How is it pump and dump? These companies aren't publicly traded.

[-] phoenixz@lemmy.ca 15 points 1 month ago

Same goes for Tesla, it's severely over bloated even if it's bubble has shrunk a bit.

These sort of bubbles should be stopped by the government but why stop that if the politicians themselves are the ones having pumped millions into these bubbles?

First you gotta make a law prohibiting politicians from having stocks, then watch how fast this problem gets resolved

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[-] vane@lemmy.world 14 points 1 month ago

That's how every single company targeting consumer market in the web started. No profit for many years. Majority because of scale of the market. Facebook started making profit after 2012 so for 8 years they were burning money figuring out where to sell their soul to. Now the scale and risk for OpenAI is way bigger, because they have not sold their users fully or we don't know if they sold it and for exchange for what. It would be funny if they at some point alter their privacy policy and turn out to sell people's chats to advertising agencies. They might also go bankrupt or turned out to be a scam that hires thousands of people to answer questions.

[-] harsh3466@lemmy.ml 13 points 1 month ago

Totally normal. Just keep throwing stupid amounts of money at it so it can find a way to undercut some existing business structure by operating at a loss until that business is dead and then enshittify. Profit! /s

[-] frayedpickles@lemmy.cafe 12 points 1 month ago

You know when you're playing a game and you think this is kinda dumb sure my gun now does 100 more damage but the baddies have 100 more health so really nothing has changed? But it still makes you feel better because well, it's 100 more.

I think that's how these valuations work.

[-] T156@lemmy.world 10 points 1 month ago

It shouldn't be, but it is. 20 years ago, in the far-off year of 2005, a lot of tech companies more or less followed the same path, where it took decades for them to actually be profitable, if they were at all.

YouTube ran at a deficit for something close to 15 years. AI companies are likely following this trend, and running mostly on investment money, rather than being self-sufficient.

[-] ICastFist@programming.dev 5 points 1 month ago

Pretty sure youtube still runs on deficit. Storage costs alone would probably bankrupt some small countries.

[-] dan@upvote.au 6 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

People don't realise how much the storage and bandwidth costs are for a site as big as YouTube, and it keeps going up due to the huge number of videos being uploaded. People think that Google are making huge amounts of money from YouTube. In reality, they're not breaking even and rely on other, profitable business units (like their Workspace and cloud services) to subsidize it.

There's no way the ads fully cover the cost, and more and more people are blocking ads. Advertisers don't pay for blocked ads, and YouTubers don't make any ad money from your views if you use an ad blocker. (this is the main reason YouTubers say they make less money from ads than they used to - ad blockers)

[-] yonder@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 month ago

I guess the cost is worth it to Google just to entrench themselves and their products even further into the lives of most people.

[-] dan@upvote.au 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Yeah it's part of their overall strategy to be seen as a core part of the internet / the web. Same as Yahoo in the 90s and early 2000s.

The more people that use their free services, the more appealing they are to advertisers compared to competing ad platforms (broader reach), and the more paid subscribers they get.

Products like Visual Studio, some Jetbrains IDEs, VMware ESXi, and a lot of SaaS products, are (or used to be) free for individuals or for open source usage for a similar reason - people get familiar with them at home, and end up recommending them and buying them at work. A few individuals liking the product can result in large companies signing paid contracts for tens of thousands of users.

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[-] jj4211@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago

Tech companies were in that boat in the late 90s as well.

The dot com bust deflated it somewhat, but somehow the industry got right back to it within a couple of years.

[-] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 4 points 1 month ago

I don't know about now, but Amazon ran a deficit for pretty much its entire existence. Amazon is a bit different though since it was part of an R&D strategy and they could've stepped off the gas at almost any point and been profitable.

[-] Zos_Kia@lemmynsfw.com 5 points 1 month ago

That's a long established myth. Amazon started out in 94, and became profitable in like 10 years. Most of their hardcore R&D is self-financed cause they generate just that much free cash.

[-] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 4 points 1 month ago

Right. They spend their free cash (and sometimes more) on R&D and infrastructure, which by definition means they're unprofitable. Profit is what's left after expenses, so if you have nothing left, you're unprofitable.

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[-] oakey66@lemmy.world 10 points 1 month ago
[-] sem@lemmy.blahaj.zone 7 points 1 month ago

Aka why not to have headlines in the form of a question.

[-] dnzm@feddit.nl 2 points 1 month ago

AKA Betteridge's law of headlines.

[-] intensely_human@lemm.ee 10 points 1 month ago

I should fucking hope OpenAI isn’t profitable.

[-] Nougat@fedia.io 9 points 1 month ago

That's because it's just gambling.

[-] ChapulinColorado@lemmy.world 4 points 1 month ago

With extra steps.

[-] john89@lemmy.ca 5 points 1 month ago

Gotta keep in mind, profit can always be distorted based on how much employees are getting paid.

Someone is making money. In fact, a lot of people are.

[-] LovableSidekick@lemmy.world 4 points 1 month ago

The history of the Internet and computers in general is full of investors willing to take seemingly insane chances on overvalued speculative ventures.

[-] aesthelete@lemmy.world 4 points 1 month ago

Private equity is so pumped full of cash that they basically have nothing better to do with it.

[-] yournamehere@lemm.ee 3 points 1 month ago

absolutely should. america lives in an idiocracy. a trump meme coin could be valued at 100trillion $ and thats fine. if you want feudalism with extra steps, this is exactly that. go buy some golden sneakers and maybe they'll be worth a million some time or not.

[-] expatriado@lemmy.world 2 points 1 month ago

pretty typical with tech companies, people get too optimistic sometimes

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[-] seven_phone@lemmy.world 2 points 1 month ago

So now we are actually to the point where we can ask if a corporation or more widely anything at all has any value if it makes no profit.

There are people in the world who by luck of birth or circumstance have amassed obscene wealth and they after the fact are trying to convince everyone that profit is the only thing of value. These are the real public enemies.

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[-] OhVenus_Baby@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 month ago

Fuck no it should never be normal. Its against true business. If there wasn't so much money in the system then a business would have to actually run like a real business.

[-] spujb@lemmy.cafe 1 points 1 month ago

Yes and it should be worse. OpenAI should be forced to take on the cost of compensating every copyright holder it exploited. If that means OpenAI doesn’t exist I’m absolutely okay with that.

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this post was submitted on 19 Jan 2025
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