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submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is allegedly of the note Trump wrote while editing a speech while on the way back from the G20 summit.


The top Russian-Chinese agent, Donald Trump, has decided that the pace of dedollarization and the decline of American financial hegemony is going too slowly. He has therefore decided to put tariffs on everybody; from America's largest trading partners to uninhabited islands. In the process, he is trying to create an autarkic America. Jokes aside, interpretation and analysis of this has ranged across a wide spectrum. I think we can broadly agree that the most idiotic are the "true believers"; those that actually believe Trump's every word, and that this will somehow bring back American manufacturing and whatever other inane promises he has made.

However, there is a much more interesting debate. The first camp are those who believe Trump is acting as an inadvertent accelerationist due to his lack of understanding about how the world economy and dollar hegemony functions (and that this will subsequently ensure that countries flock to China instead). The second camp are those who believe that Trump does know what he's doing, at least to a certain extent, and that the effective result of this period of madness will be countries kowtowing to the United States; renegotiating trade deals to be even more in favor of the US in order to get tariffs reduced. There's even a yet more cynical camp who believes that in fact, this entire trade war is just theater for further national wealth redistributions from poor to rich; that all these monumental international trade wars are more of a sideshow. To quote the linked article: "[...] out of the mountain of tariffs that threaten to turn into a global trade war will emerge the mouse of further tax cuts."

I'm not embarrassed to admit that I have absolutely no idea which one of these is the closest model to reality. We're in new economic and political ground, and even if the tariffs are quickly renegotiated and/or dropped, the impacts will continue to reverberate around the world for years. I'm sure we'll debate this for months to come here, though!


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 66 points 6 days ago

The libs in Pikachu or superhero costumes at that event you go to might be cops.

[-] spudnik@hexbear.net 52 points 6 days ago

20 years ago, the town I grew up in used to do this to catch speeders. Undercover cops would pose as utility workers, sometimes up in cherry pickers pretending to work on power lines. Other times they would pretend to be unhoused people with shopping carts. They would have radar guns and radio to marked police cars to pull over speeders. They got sued for it, but it didn't stop them. What they did finally get successfully sued for was using unmarked cop cars to speed up behind drivers, until the driver sped up enough to go over the limit. Then the undercover car would radio a regular marked cop car who would pull over the entrapped speeder. The only reason they got caught was because the cops were bragging about it so much. As far as I remember, no one was ever held to account, the department just had to pinky swear they wouldn't do it anymore. Anyway, ACAB etc etc

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[-] vegeta1@hexbear.net 77 points 6 days ago

German reaction to Israel killing 15 red cross workers. "Footage brings up questions" Rotten country.

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[-] Sulv@hexbear.net 56 points 5 days ago

Everybody’s been talking about the tariffs, but thoughts on the Iran talks? The military buildup over the last month looks like it was to force Iran to negotiate on their nuclear program. If a deal can’t be reached, I think we’ll see strikes against their nuclear facilities.

[-] newmou@hexbear.net 41 points 5 days ago

I know Iran is up against a wall here, but this is the same god damn thing over and over again. US says let’s negotiate, US breaks deal, more sanctions, more proxy violence, US says let’s negotiate, US breaks deal…etc etc. I guess Iran feels they need to go through the motions here to avoid immediate confrontation? But it’s also clear confrontation is inevitable. And if they’re not building nukes it doesn’t matter what they’re doing. Really sucks that there’s no power that would unite with Iran to counter the US. I honestly don’t see a point in even keeping up with these “talks.” It’s just theater to create the pretense of going to war

[-] SupFBI@hexbear.net 43 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

Any deal would be a stepping stone to their eventual destruction. The US doesn't deal in good faith or win/win.

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[-] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 45 points 5 days ago

What happens if the US keeps provoking China and China sells off treasuries and uses the cash to pay off Latam and African debt?

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[-] EllenKelly@hexbear.net 63 points 6 days ago

Anlysis Trump’s Tariffs Aim to Prepare the US for Hot War

Sam King April 12, 2025

Donald Trump’s dramatic, April 2 tariff announcements tanked share markets across the globe and unleashed a wave of mass media commentary claiming the policy is “irrational”, “economically illiterate” and reflective more of Trump’s egotistical ignorance than any clear policy objectives.

first few paragraphs

Trump’s personality obviously has an effect on policy and the way it is implemented, however, there is a growing consensus among the US ruling class about the urgent need to of revive US manufacturing capacity for “national security” reasons.

Trump’s tariff policy is one way of attempting to achieve this outcome. Biden’s massive suite of industrial subsidies and policies was a different method. Before Biden there was the first round of Trump tariffs. Those followed on from the Obama administration’s tax and other incentives for “re-shoring” production to the US. US oil production began rising in 2009 to become the world’s biggest oil producer by 2019.

None of these policies were substantially reversed by changes of government. Biden retained the tariffs from the first Trump administration. Today Trump does not propose canceling Biden’s industrial policies, though they may be modified. Both Republicans and Democrats have steadily increased the range of US products banned from export to China under US technology prohibitions. Both parties also support sanctions on Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela and other countries.

The problem for the US ruling class is not – as Richard Wolf and others argue – that it is unable to compete in “free market” competition with China. If that were the case, it’s declining position would be reflected in declining national wealth and income. In fact, average US income increased in dollar terms by 55 per cent over the ten years to 2023 to almost US$83,000 per person according to World Bank data. While much of that was offset by rising inflation, in 2023 Chinese income was just $US12,614 dollars, over seven times lower.

US capitalism and other imperialist states such as Australia can continue to leverage their technological dominance to make huge super-profits in the globalised economy while outsourcing routine production processes to lower cost economies like Mexico, China or Vietnam. Their ability to keep doing that is why much of the capitalist press sees Trump’s policy as “economically illiterate”.

The problem that Trump, his advisors and US imperialism’s key political strategists seek to fix is not a lack of US profitability relative to its competitors but something else.

The global division of labour that has developed within the framework of US dominance has undermined US manufacturing capacity specifically. While US capital may design, develop, organise, control, market and deliver a product, less actual fabrication is taking place in the US. This weakness in manufacturing specifically makes US imperialism vulnerable to strategic catastrophe in the event of a breakdown of the world trading system, as would likely occur in another major war

.

via https://red-spark.org/2025/04/12/trumps-tariffs-aim-to-prepare-the-us-for-hot-war/

sent to me by a comrade

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[-] MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml 114 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

It's pretty wild that the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs is quoting Mao to hit back at the US tariffs. It really underscores what a huge mistake it was when Khrushchev, that "poison dwarf skinhead fuck" tore down Stalin's legacy. You can almost hear all the Western "Sinologist" academics losing their minds right now, shouting, "No, you can’t quote Mao! You’re supposed to be just as ashamed of him as we made the Soviets feel about Stalin! Mao’s supposed to be an ideological weapon we use against you, not something you wield against us! Are all my Ivy League/Oxbridge-published University Press anti-Mao books for nothing?"

[-] miz@hexbear.net 102 points 6 days ago

Why did the Soviet Union disintegrate? Why did the Communist Party of the Soviet Union fall to pieces? An important reason is that in the ideological domain, competition is fierce! To completely repudiate the historical experience of the Soviet Union, to repudiate the history of the CPSU, to repudiate Lenin, to repudiate Stalin was to wreck chaos in Soviet ideology and engage in historical nihilism. It caused Party organizations at all levels to have barely any function whatsoever. It robbed the Party of its leadership of the military. In the end the CPSU—as great a Party as it was—scattered like a flock of frightened beasts! The Soviet Union—as great a country as it was—shattered into a dozen pieces. This is a lesson from the past!

Xi Jinping, 2013

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[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 65 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

With today's negotiations between the USA and Russia over the Ukraine war now concluded in St Petersburg, and negotiations between the USA and Iran taking place tomorrow in Oman, what's everyone's thoughts on this? It would be cool if we could all give our opinions and discuss, even if we disagree with each other of course. Open debate is always best, even with such highly serious topics. These are some of the most important negotiations in modern history. If they fail, we could be looking at large scale warfare and associated events that could lead to the death of many and seismic shifts in the world economy that would make tarrifs look small. Or not, hopefully.

My view is quite simple and not very insightful, the losing sides have to offer up large concessions to halt ongoing war or prevent war. Ukraine is suffering losses and losing to Russia in Ukraine, so for any "peace deal" to go through, Ukraine and the USA will have to offer some substantial concessions to Russia, such as the four oblasts in the east (or even more territory) becoming effectively Russian, future elections, no NATO, etc. If those concessions are not offered, Russia will continue the war until it reaches it's ultimate conclusion. On the other hand, Iran has suffered some substantial losses in its Axis of Resistance network, and it's deterrence is at a historical low (no Operation True Promise III/Israeli attack on Iranian soil not responded to, large US military buildup in the region), so Iran will have to offer some substantial concessions to the USA and Israel around it's uranium enrichment levels, nuclear program and potentially other assets like the Axis of Resistance, otherwise I believe the USA and Israel will go to war against Iran.

Do hexbears think the fate of Ukraine and Iran is linked somehow between the two potential deals? Can Russia play an important role in preventing war against Iran and brokering a "nuclear deal"? Can the USA play a vital role in getting Ukraine to offer up large concessions in exchange for pausing the war there and achieving a "peace deal"? I certainly hope that in both cases peace can be achieved obviously, but if war is inevitable it will happen.

On a lighter note, is Pezeshkian the Iranian Gorbachev? Is Zelenskyy the Ukrainian Churchill?

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[-] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 60 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)
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[-] Losurdo_Enjoyer@hexbear.net 70 points 6 days ago

nitter.net | xcancel | twitter

i don't think the Trump regime is "stupid" so much as i think they have had trouble coming to a unified plan of attack. It's obvious there are very real divisions between figures like Navarro, Musk, and Bessent/Miran; and the fickle 78 year old at the center is struggling with it

So Trump comes out swinging on Obliteration Day and goes full "no compromise" Navarro, then he gets pushback from the generally anti-tariff Musk, and what emerges is a warped version of the "country buckets" Bessent/Miran targeted tariff approach (tho it bears the Navarro scars).

The political establishment is incredibly fractured, and that includes the Republican party. That's why Trump is able to get away with such big initiatives without real challenge, but it's also why his actions seem pulled into different, contradictory, directions.

best take I've seen on the tariffs, i think the insider trading is just a side job. from a follow up tweet, engels actually wrote about this in an abstract way lol https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1890/letters/90_09_21.htm#%3A%7E%3Atext=For+what+each+individual+wills%2Cthe+same+laws+of+motion

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this post was submitted on 07 Apr 2025
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