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submitted 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is from Wikipedia's article on the war..


I've wanted to cover Myanmar for a while now but haven't had the needed knowledge to write much more than "This situation really sucks." After doing a little reading on the situation, I feel even more confused. A decent analogy is the Syrian Civil War, at least while Assad was in power (though it's still pretty true today) - many different opposition groups, some co-operating with the United States, others not. The main government supported partially by an anti-American superpower, but who could live with that government collapsing if there are deals to be made with the group coming into power. A conflict kept going and exploited at least partially by the United States and other imperial core powers, though with plenty of genuine domestic animosity and desires for political independence.

Recently, the Myanmar government - the mainstream media uses "junta", which is probably accurate despite the connotations - has promised elections at the end of 2025. This doesn't seem likely to happen, and even if it did, how this would work in a country as war-torn as Myanmar is unclear. The government is losing territory and soldiers at a quick pace; they now hold only 21% of the country, though that 21% does at least comprise many of the cities. It's difficult to get a handle on the number of people affected because civil wars and insurgencies have been ongoing in some shape or form for decades, but we're talking at least millions displaced and thousands of civilians killed.

Here's a comment by @TheGenderWitch@hexbear.net from fairly recently that covers the situation in Myanmar:

comment

The military government of Myanmar is losing to the Rebel Groups, and badly. https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-s-rebels-closing-in-around-junta-into-fifth-year-of-civil-war-/7958145.html

somethings really afoot though, news about myanmar from western outlets and channels have suddenly all remembered myanmar exists and written quite a lot about them in the last few days. Its suspicious, it could be capitalists trying to signal their want for US involvement in the civil war. It could also be a targeted propaganda campaign already pre planned in order to make sure people are clued into the conflict.

I think this seems to be another Assad situation. The Military government is pretty unpopular domestically and is losing quite a bit of ground. I would be surprised if they lasted to 2027. Supplied by both Russia and China, theyve been able to keep some flow of weapons, but are suffering a lot from manpower issues. Conscription has been enacted, but conscripts are a poor replacement for trained soldiers. According to reports, they only hold about 21% of the land and are losing lots of territory. They also have extended their emergency rule for another 6 months, throwing doubt on the ability to follow through with their 2025 election. They've lost large amounts of territory, thousands of soldiers, and 2 regional commands. They're not dead yet though, as they have some ability to retake some territory and win some battles, but again 21%. Rebels currently are making steady progress towards the second largest city in the country.

while I don't like the rebels, they are western aligned, they have popular support and are allied to many of Myanmar's ethnic minority defence groups. Im wondering who really has the power in this situation though, since many of the gains seem to be made by the Ethnic armies, not the NUG. This revolutionary energy could be fueled to establish a socialist federation, but won't, and the popular revolutionary energy is fueled toward the NUG. It'll probably be another pro-west bourgeoisie democracy. It will probably then turn against the ethnic rebels and we'll end up basically where myanmar was pre coup. Probably will have a strong military influence on politics as well, since the rebel forces seem to be made up of officers and very little political groups. By then, people will be extremely tired of war and more likely to accept any conflict resolution than another civil war. In the midst of "It Happened" stands a stronger, unmovable "nothing ever happens". Would be neat if the Communist Party of Burma could somehow come out on top, but they have only around 1000 soldiers and don't control a large amount of territory.

China's interests in the region are still secure, but siding with the Junta is a bad idea, one I understand though. China doesn't want a western aligned power to take over a china aligned state, and is trying to make sure their economic investments in the area are protected and their mineral income is continued. They have deep ties with many Ethnic Minority states, especially on their border, and the NUG forces, mostly again to protect infrastructure investments and keep the minerals flowing. They might flip back to the NUG as the Junta starts collapsing over the next year or so, especially since the new US administration seems to be really cutting back on foreign aid. The General in charge of the rebel government forces complained quite a bit about how much aid ukraine got and how much he wanted that aid. He was basically begging for anti aircraft systems "like in ukraine" lol. China could definitely swoop in and back the rebels, which while hurting their reputation, is probably the best move long term. China's only interest is to keep Myanmar from being pro-west, keep control of Myanmar's mineral flow, and protect other investments in the area.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

It's now just past midnight in Israel now, March 11 in the morning. Ansarallah in Yemen (known was the Houthis in western media) has said that they will restart their attacks on March 11 if aid is not allowed into Gaza. There are no signs of Israel allowing aid into Gaza, in fact they've even cut off the electrical supply to Gaza within the last few days. So we can expect Ansarallah to launch some attacks within the next 24-48 hours, if not tonight. Israeli air defences are said to be on high alert, in particular the Arrow ABM systems. Why would Ansarallah resume their attacks on Israel and the US Navy?

  • Firstly, the situation in Gaza is not good. The ceasefire is up in the air, and there is no humanitarian aid entering the Gaza strip. Without any further actions in opposition of Israel, the situation could get worse. The most important thing is to get these people some relief, some breathing room. The Israeli genocide has been catastrophic and murdered hundreds of thousands by now.

  • Ansarallah might think that attacks on Yemen are inevitable, given recent US Navy and CENTCOM movements in the region, including the return of the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group to the Red Sea, and CENTCOM General Kurilla meeting with Saudi Arabian and Yemeni opposition officals. So it is better for Ansarallah to strike first and take the initiative.

  • The second point fits in here with this third one, which is more broad. Ansarallah might think that continuing a low level conflict against Israel and the US Navy suits their interests. They were the biggest winners over the past two years from an axis of resistance perspective, being able to accomplish their strategic objective (a naval blockade in the Red Sea) with minimal losses. Sure they were unable to sink or hit a US Navy ship despite some close calls, but the US Navy were unable to get shipping traffic back to normal levels and provide adequate protection for cargo ships. Thus Ansarallah accomplished their strategic objective. Waging a just war against Israeli genocide is going to be very popular and unifying (for obvious reasons) among Yemenis who might otherwise have issues with them. Wartime and peacetime governance are two very different things. So a continuation of conflict could very well be in Ansarallah's interests now, to try force the US and Israel to accept their very simple and just demands of letting aid into Gaza. This runs the risk of provoking a further US-Israeli response, but that is a risk Ansarallah seems willing to take given that the US and Israel have been unable to hinder them much so far.

[-] sewer_rat_420@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

Holy shit, I hadn't seen that graph and hadn't quite comprehended the scale of Ansarallah's success in their blockade. Do we know how much it has recovered since the ceasefire? I surely hope they follow through, although not looking forward to the US response. But your assessment seems correct in that they know Yemen and Houthi controlled areas will be bombed, if not now, at some point.

I don't know Trumps true motives, but a successful blockade would further worsen America's economic collapse. And of course it harms Israel. Perhaps it could be the factor that pushes through a deal to extend the ceasefire.

With this weekend's arrest of Mahmoud Khalil and Israel/MENA issues pushed back into the forefront, a high increase of suppression for dissenting speech in this area seems likely to occur. Not looking good for those who dislike increasing fascism.

[-] edge@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Does it just barely cut off Ever Given in March 2021? It was blocked for almost a week so I imagine that month would have had a pretty big drop off.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

The graph is from January 2021 so Ever Given is included, probably smoothed out in the data set given that most of the ships ended up crossing the Suez canal anyways, just a week later. Data is ships per month so it would not have a big impact on the graph.

[-] sexywheat@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

Originally restricted only to products from "red states", British Columbia is now taking all Yank liquor off the shelves of the state-owned enterprise BC Liquor.

Death to America.

“Today, we are ordering the removal of all American beer, wine, spirits and refreshment beverages from the shelves at BCLIQUOR stores. The stores carry hundreds of types of U.S. alcohol that the BC Liquor Distribution Branch will also no longer be purchasing.

[-] BountifulEggnog@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

US-flagged oil tanker collides with container ship in North Sea

Both ships caught fire and were abandoned, 32 people injured and one missing.

[-] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

damn that would have been really bad if it was the uninsured shadow fleet. as it is, only democratic oil will spill so all good

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

It's jet fuel onboard, so democratic™ kerosene! Much better.

[-] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

perfect timing

“An agreement has been signed between interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazlum Abdi to integrate into the institutions of the Syrian Arab Republic.”

https://t.me/thecradlemedia/31390

This agreement includes a ceasefire that has allegedly already been violated.

https://t.me/nayaforiraq/23210 https://t.me/nayaforiraq/23211

Agreement terms

spoiler

❗️Syrian Presidency:

○ The agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stipulates guaranteeing the rights of all Syrians to representation and participation in the political process and all state institutions.

○ The agreement stipulates the integration of all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria within the state administration, including border crossings, the airport, and oil and gas fields.

○ The agreement emphasizes ensuring the return of all displaced Syrians to their towns and villages and ensuring their protection from the Syrian state.

The agreement with the SDF stipulates supporting the Syrian state in its fight against the remnants of Assad and all threats that threaten its security and unity. (Emphasis mine)

○ The agreement with the SDF stipulates the rejection of calls for division, hate speech, and attempts to sow discord among all components of Syrian society.

[-] Formerlyfarman@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

They are both us puppets so it does not surprise me.

[-] CredibleBattery@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

The agreement with the SDF stipulates supporting the Syrian state in its fight against the remnants of Assad and all threats that threaten its security and unity.

Bruh. We're gonna get Horizontally Aligned Alawite massacres.

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

welp, that's middle east firmly in usa/isntreal hands.

[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

Completely shameless.

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

I have had people on the old sub all the way to this community constantly argue to the bitter end about how the poor SDF couldnt possibly have made a deal with Assad at any point, an impossible situation and decision between a rock and a hard place blah blah, they werent american compradors , they had no other choice etc etc...Dozens of times that struggle session happened up till last year even

Turns out you can just do things and it only took them a couple of months to start folding into Jolenski's Turkish backed woke Isis regime (he is an institutionalist now!). During the massacres of thousands of civilians no less. Surely pushed and facilitated by the US as well

I dont hold too much contempt for their project and there was genuine struggle and progressivism there but history wont be kind to the choices they made in their geopolitical and regional alignments

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

Say the line Bart

say-the-line-bart-2

The tankies are always right

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

The agreement with the SDF stipulates supporting the Syrian state in its fight against the remnants of Assad and all threats that threaten its security and unity.

SDF military coalition with the HTS. That's really bad...

This comes a few days after the SDF met the US CENTCOM general on the 6-7 March.

In Syria, Gen. Kurilla met with U.S. military commanders and servicemembers, as well as our Defeat-ISIS partners, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Gen. Kurilla received an update on the evolving situation in Syria and an assessment of the ongoing Defeat-ISIS campaign and efforts to prevent the resurgence of the terrorist group in the region.

Source - Official US CENTCOM twitter

Xcancel mirror

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

Defeat ISIS by joining them!

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

The SDF commander was sent to sign this deal onboard a US Military Chinook helicopter. So it gets worse. Apparently the entire deal was facilitated by the US on February 20th, and the CENTCOM commander delivered the message. And today the US military transported their now discarded proxy leader to sign the surrender documents. I see this as facilitating the US withdrawal from Syria. The whole point of the US using the Kurds as a proxy was to occupy the oil fields and fertile lands by the Euphrates, to starve the Assad government so it would collapse. Now that Assad is gone, the proxy has no more usefulness, the mission in toppling Assad has been accomplished. So the USA will leave.

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

First the “anarchists” in Ukraine go full social fascist to align themselves with NATO and Nazis, now these “anarchists” are joining Al Qaeda after destroying a key part of the resistance against Israel

If I speak I am in big trouble

[-] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

That portion stuck out to me as well. Anti-Iran coalition?

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

It comes only days after the SDF met with the US CENTCOM general. Some are reporting that HTS will take over the "ISIS prisoner camps" currently managed by the SDF. Israel would love a corridor to the Euphrates, and a lot of the land through the desert along the Jordan-Iraq border to the Euphrates is fairly uncontested, aside from the Al Tanf US military outpost. Also a big military buildup in Jordan over the past week, supported by the UK. The big challenge for Israel from a pure military perspective would be to get through Daraa and the western part of As- Suwayda governorate, after that it's just open land.

[-] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

Repost:

The Syrian terror regime has started a cleanup operation in advance of any international visitors, specifically the UN delegation. From planting weapons and stripping bodies to put on military gear to straight-up dumping bodies in the ocean, maximum effort is being put in to obscure what really has occurred. They haven’t stopped the killing (despite the announcement of the “military operation’s” end), they’re simply trying to minimize what has already happened.

https://t.me/CoastSyrian24/902

[-] UnitedNations@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

A villager stands outside his home in Kyauk Ka Char, Shan State, Myanmar, where Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon visited the Drug Alternative Development Project” being implemented in the area. The project is co-sponsored by Myanmar’s Government and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

©UN Photo/Mark Garten, 2012-04-30

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

Pope Francis' improvement “further consolidated”, says Vatican; doctors withdraw guarded prognosis. However, in view of the complexity of the clinical picture, the Pontiff will remain “in a hospital environment for a few more days”

[-] homhom9000@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

"Pro Palestine" hacker group dark storm is taking credit for taking down Twitter multiple times today. Cool if true but it made me do work today.

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1899157996036673857

Edit: added quotes to pro Palestine since I don't know the nature of the group or their motives beyond taking down Twitter. It's weird to target Twitter itself and not thousands of other things too.

[-] ProletarianDictator@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

Interested in learning more about Myanmar, especially a breakdown of various factions, including allies, approximate strength, and their current terrorities. Not even sure where to find reputable info on the situation.

One big note: China probably wants stability in the region more than caring about the specifics of who governs it, as long as whoever is in charge is willing to join BRI (likely regardless, given the need to rebuild infrastructure after a war.)

Myanmar could serve as the shortest path to get Chinese goods to the sea if the West were ever able to encircle them and blockade the strait of Malacca. So a BRI project here could mitigate the damage of the US Navy's biggest strategic advantage in a hypothetical war scenario.

So China likely wants to play a role in rebuilding the country, regardless of who is in charge. Given their border has been a hotspot of human and drug trafficking, they have plenty of reasons to support a quick end to the war, even if the winners don't align with their interests. I think this is why they initially aligned with the junta, hoping they could quickly regain control.

However Western friendly the winning faction or coalition is, it's probably not friendly enough to outright reject Chinese assistance in rebuilding, so the US probably wants to keep the situation an ongoing mess that never becomes stable enough for infrastructure, which is also probably why the US media apparatus largely ignores the situation.

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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

Just want to respond to @MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net's post from here: https://hexbear.net/comment/5967697

You're not quite correct about the F16s being grounded without American intelligence. The British are capable of programming these ECM pods and performing the reconnaissance for them too, I would not be surprised if they have stepped in to do exactly that.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

So, from what I understand about Myanmar/Burma, the two main factions are the Junta/Tatmadaw and the National Unity Government/People's Defense Force. Besides them, there are some ethnic armies that are supported by the US and China. And it seems that both the US and China have also tried a peace deal between the Junta and the NUG, but it doesn't seem to have worked. The junta doesn't want the military and its friends to lose their privileges and doesn't seem to have any real ideology beyond the fact that they want to rule Myanmar.

[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Somewhere in the mix with this is also that Myanmar is once again the #1 opium producing country, a trend that started during the war/right after the US pulled out of Afghanistan.

[-] Jabril@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

Also apparently a big human trafficking location where people are being forced to work in scam factories

[-] immuredanchorite@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

idk, maybe things have changed but the “some ethnic armies” seem much more developed and militarily powerful. With coalitions like the Three Brotherhood Alliance playing a decisive role in the tide turning against the military government. Some of these national liberation armies have been i. armed struggle for self determination for decades, with only a brief respite in fighting during Myanmars brief period of liberal democracy, while NUG is a coalition that was sort of hastily put together with the liberals who fled and went into hiding after the coup in 2021.

I think what has been missing from some of the analysis I have read is just how we are supposed to understand the class-politics of the conflict and relationship to imperialism in the conflict. I disagree that the conflict is entirely a US proxy war, although the US has played an important and malign role. The military government was looking at political defeat in 2021, in part because they had nearly identical politics with the NLD but no mass base or celebrity leader. I think the military government saw the rising conflict with China and the US and felt that seizing power would avoid the same level of isolation and sanction that they had had before liberalizing. They believed they could get away with it, because both China and the US would want to continue a positive relationship with whoever was left in power (for different reasons)— But this has led to a strange position for China, who seems to only want a stable neighbor without conflict on their border. As the military government falters, China is less likely to put all of its eggs in one basket. On top of that the military government has also done things to upset China (one of Myanmar's generals was implicated in a fraudulent call-center ring across the border in Yunnan). So even though I am sympathetic to the argument that the US is flooding the region with arms to destabilize China’s neighbor, I am not certain that China is committed to upholding the current government. They just want to conflict to resolve (but preferably with a government that isn’t hostile)… I am not sure that there hasn’t been historic support for the national liberation factions from China in the last, particularly in the 60s and 70s… If relations are relatively good between China and the major nations in Myanmar, given their outsized influence in fighting the government I could see China coming out of the conflict without a major loss if either side wins. The loss already occurred for them when the coup happened (and Myanmar was embroiled with armed struggle)

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

The Chancellor of Suriname, Albert Ramdin, has been elected by acclamation as the new Secretary General of the Organization of American States, the OAS. His name gained traction after Brazil withdrew its support for Paraguayan Chancellor Ramírez Lezcano, seen as pro-Trump and potentially an arm of the US.

Brazil's move prompted Chile, Bolivia, Colombia and Uruguay to also discard their votes for Paraguay, converting them into support for Suriname. Paraguay withdrew Ramírez's candidacy and Ramdin was elected with no competitors.

  • Telegram

As I said it before, this is more or less just a symbolic victory for the Pink Tide goverments

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 1 points 3 months ago

comprador moment when the suzerain can't complain themselves

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