[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 29 points 1 week ago

Dual-use items is the big thing there, it means a lot of construction material.

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 30 points 2 weeks ago

I'm sending all my love to you.

I think that, while "Israel" would absolutely love for all Palestinians in the West Bank to move to Jordan, the fact has been that Jordan has been adamant about not allowing that, since it would de-stabilize the governement in a similar fashion to Egypt should the population in Gaza be sent to the Sinai.

That is not to say that everything is suddenly OK, of course its not, but at the very least that plan is a no-go from the start.

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 29 points 3 weeks ago

What concessions has he got at this point?

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 30 points 1 month ago

Armchair Warlord's take

TextMy thoughts on the attack on Iran, as currently reported.

It's clear that an attack took place. Official sources in the DoD are claiming 30 sub-launched Tomahawks and 6 MOPs were used via B-2s. I see no reason to take that claim at face value, absent some amount of proof.⬇️

As a first order of business, the attack passed entirely under the radar of the usual nightly exchange of fire between Iran and Israel until Trump made his announcement. There was some reporting of air defense activity and isolated blasts but nothing suggestive of a large attack, and video has emerged of what sounds like a few cruise missiles hitting a target in the desert, without secondary explosions or fires. Videos that made the rounds earlier showing large fires and explosions at these sites appear to have been disinformation or clickbait.

The attack, as the DoD insider has claimed occurred (and as the DoD will probably officially claim tomorrow) bizarrely combined the lowest and highest-risk attack methods - submarine-launched cruise missiles and multiple B-2s penetrating into central Iran to drop gravity bombs on a heavily defended site, with a need to egress hundreds of miles of alerted airspace afterwards. Perhaps the Air Force actually had the stones and capability to do this, although given they refused to risk B-2s in Yemen earlier and the IAF has conducted their campaign thus far almost entirely with standoff munitions and drones (because the Iranian air defense network is by no means down), I doubt it.

Now allow me to draw your attention to a... numerological coincidence, let's say. 30 TLAMs and 6 MOPs, 36 rounds total. I will note that US attack submarines carry 12 TLAMs in a vertical launch array, and the inside source in the Pentagon made a critical slip - they specified submarines, plural, participated in the attack. Ergo three attack submarines could have launched 36 rounds between them, and ergo it wasn't one of the Ohio SSGN conversions. Getting three attack submarines on station would have been trivial in these circumstances.

My theory for the evening? I think this was a low-risk, low-impact attack entirely conducted using submarine-launched cruise missiles, and the DoD is simply lying about heavy bomber involvement for propaganda purposes. TLAMs are accurate enough to damage bunker entrances and cause the same kind of disruptive damage that a MOP strike could realistically achieve on a site as incredibly hardened as Fordow. Damage to subterranean facilities at other sites, beyond bunker entrances, is unlikely - TLAMs are not "bunker buster" munitions. There may be a number of aboveground buildings damaged or destroyed, although given a lack of fires observed that also seems somewhat unlikely at this point.

What's Trump's play here? I think he's trying to rescue Netanyahu from the consequences of his own idiotic decision to start a war with Iran he manifestly wasn't capable of finishing, and to do so in a manner the Iranians are not necessarily going to be forced to respond to. As an American taxpayer and former DoD employee I very much hope this wasn't the most impressive attack the US military could put together on a week's notice and that this reflects deliberate restraint rather than a lack of capability or willingness to assume risk. Certainly the Iranian reaction to the attack thus far has been more eye-roll than fire and fury, with denials of significant damage or even casualties.

Let us hope it remains that way, this could go south in a real hurry.

(I realize that if you look closely at the attached picture of the USS Santa Fe sitting dockside with its VLS tubes open there is a tube numbered "14" - as you can also see, it only has 12 VLS tubes. I'm not sure how they decided to number the tubes for administrative purposes, but I thought it worth commenting on this rather odd facet of the illustration I chose.)

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 30 points 1 month ago

What chance is there that Iran is ok with the lowering of intensity because they are OK with taking these hits?

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 30 points 1 month ago

Some are saying an Iranian hacking group was responsible for the misfire

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 29 points 1 month ago

Unfortunately, this could also mean the US goes nuclear out of spite.

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 31 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Elijah Magnier - https://xcancel.com/ejmalrai/status/1934783722789691813#m

If Israel were to assassinate Sayyed Ali Khamenei, Iran would simply appoint another Supreme Leader. The institution would remain intact — just as it did after the death of Imam Khomeini. What such an act would truly trigger is a wave of popular mobilisation against Israel and a grave threat to the safety of every Israeli abroad.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategic calculus is not only dangerously shallow but emblematic of a broader collapse of international norms. His willingness to resort to targeted assassinations, car-bomb tactics reminiscent of terrorist operations, and open declarations of war against sovereign states — without consequence or international censure — signals the erosion of the very foundations of international law. Worse still, these actions are often met not with condemnation, but with tacit support or silence from the international community.

Also, on this vid (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iHpCUmoqaI) he mentions that the decisivity of the war depends on:

  • How long Israeli civil society is willing to put up with the difficulties of bombardment.
  • How sustaind Iran can keep up said bombardment.
  • The cohesiveness of Iranian civil society.

On the question of Is it possible that Israel wants to kill Khamenei, he thinks its 100% certain they want to kill him, yet this is not the decisive action that changes the course of the war because the Army has already put a solid chain of command that follows Khamenei's orders even on his death.

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 31 points 1 month ago

Big doubt that no one would care. I think that a covert or overt op to attack Iran's nuclear sites in a way that actually destroys them is going to push the russians and chinese to more action IMO.

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 31 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

I got another question. Why do we have these videos of Iranian missiles clearly flying and striking Israel, but not the same amount for the Zionists? What weapons are the zionists using? Or is it just that they attacked on daytime?

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 31 points 2 months ago

I'll be honest, this sounds like the bullshit the empire had been spouting for years, so why is this one THE one? If this were an option they would've taken it before.

[-] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 31 points 2 months ago

Why would they succeed militarily now? If this were an option they would have succeeded earlier.

view more: ‹ prev next ›

ColombianLenin

joined 5 months ago