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this post was submitted on 03 Feb 2025
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chapotraphouse
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But what if the new Republican administration decided to change strategy?
Here's a theory I've seen than makes sense to me:
The US is putting tariffs on and souring relations with their own vassals because they don't want to keep these increasingly expensive to maintain vassals anymore. They are looking to ditch them, grabbing anything they can on the way out, so that they can concentrate their ever dwindling military and economic power on protecting the American ruling class (including the foreigners capitalists who de-localized to the US) instead of having to protect the entire western ruling class.
The US ruling class must have realized that global dominance was a lost cause no matter what, and they are making an admittedly costly strategic retreat to avoid an even larger and more costly debacle later.
If this is the case, then suddenly, Trump's tariffs frenzy makes sense: they are tariffing the EU and Canada to hell, cutting subsidies to them and ditching Taiwan even though they are US vassals because they are ditching them, the US is cutting their losses before the cracks of the empire becomes a fatal wound.
It also explain why he didn't do any of that during Trump's first term back in 2016: the empire was still relatively stable back then, there was no other political, military or economic block capable of challenging NATO to the extent BRICS is doing now.
Heck, that would even explain why Trump of all peoples was the one to get a ceasefire out of Israel.
I agree. Especially with Trump’s posturing towards Canada and Mexico with talks of annexation and invasion, it is increasingly clear that the US is starting to view allies and neighbors as targets for their exploitation, and the existing imperial apparatus as dead weight as their own geopolitical position weakens. The US doesn’t want to subsidize the existing organs of empire that it shares with the EU, Canada, etc; rather they want to pare this operation down to refocus themselves, and those who don’t comply with the goals of the empire will get sanctioned, overthrown, or invaded regardless of their previous ally status. They don’t see Western countries as partners in crime anymore, they are targets and liabilities to the US bourgeoisie
I will say that I’ll be shocked if they actually quit supporting the Taiwan separatists though. The US just gains too much from supporting them in terms of hard power projection in East Asia, and in utilizing their semiconductor industry. That latter point is becoming more tenuous as the US tries to build its own semiconductor industry, but they still rely heavily on Taiwan for this. Imperialism isn’t gonna stop and they love exploiting the cheap labor there and hopeless political cause of the ROC as a base for military and intelligence operations. It seems the main goal is to stop the soft power and aid to pad the margins of empire a bit more