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this post was submitted on 28 Apr 2025
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Sure, it's not nothing, but I imagine it's an amount of trade that can be redirected either internally or towards other friendly economies. There might be some short term pain, but that's where the government can step in to ensure a smooth transition away from reliance on US.
I think a portion of what was lost to the USA can be diverted but certainly not all of it.
I mean BRICS is growing economically, which means rising internal consumption. Meanwhile, consumption in US is dropping which means that even without tariffs there will be less demand going forward. There will definitely be some pain in the short term, but I expect it will get resolved within a year. I'm basing this on how quickly Russia was able to adapt to being cut off from trade from the west. If Russia was able to do this, you can bet China can do it better.
I don't think we can directly compare. Russia adapted because of China. China filled the gap. Russia cannot reciprocate in this way.
China certainly played a role, but Russia didn't adapt solely because of China. Russia was preparing for this eventuality since at least 2014, and has now become largely an autarky in terms of all the necessities. Russia also does large amounts of trade with Africa, Asia, Middle East, and Latin America. On top of that, standard of living in Russia is now growing which means rise in consumption which creates a market for China. Russia is not as big as the US, but it's still a market of of over 143 million. The economies of countries in ASEAN are rapidly growing as well. I expect that's where China will be refocusing trade along with boosting domestic consumption.